re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Some U.S. officials initially considered the possibility that the Kremlin drone attack might have been carried out by the Russian government in a “false flag” operation designed to provide Moscow with a pretext to escalate the conflict.

But after the attack, the United States intercepted communications in which Russian officials were overheard discussing the incident and the findings of Moscow’s preliminary investigation into what took place. In those internal discussions, Russian officials seemed surprised by the drone intrusion and blamed Ukraine. U.S. officials said this intelligence helped convince them that the attack was not carried out by the Russians.

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but it's worth watching the whole thing.

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Was there news of a drone?

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I’m betting it’s in the tens of thousands. As for Ukrainian losses, who knows? I’m sure they’re heavy as well.

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WASHINGTON—South Korea is proceeding with the transfer of hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds for Ukraine, a move that U.S. officials said would make Kyiv’s planned offensive against Russian forces effective and allow the White House to delay a fraught decision about whether to supply cluster munitions banned by many countries.

The decision marks a turnabout by Seoul, which had pledged the artillery in November but then balked at providing lethal assistance, following months of U.S. pleas for help as the Pentagon’s own supply of artillery dwindles.

Under the confidential arrangement, South Korea is transferring the shells to the U.S., which in turn has arranged for them to be sent to Ukraine. The White House declined to comment, as did a South Korean government spokesman in Seoul.

The Pentagon declined to say how the shells are being sent or when the transfer is to be completed, but acknowledged that it has been in discussion with Seoul on buying its ammunition.

South Korea’s contribution of rounds has enabled the Biden administration to delay for now a decision on whether to send cluster munitions—the “dual-purpose improved conventional munition” in Pentagon parlance—to the Ukrainians.

“Cluster munitions would provide a missing piece for the Ukrainian counteroffensive to complement their precision medium-range missiles, tanks and troops,” said Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, an independent Washington research organization. “But for those in the administration unready to make that leap, unitary 155 shells would meet some of the same requirements.”

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Ukraine has asked for cluster munitions and senior Republican lawmakers have pressed the administration to provide them. U.S. military and defense officials have been sympathetic to Ukraine’s request.

But officials in the White House and State Department have resisted, citing the international opprobrium long attached to the use of cluster munitions.

Fired from an artillery gun or rocket launcher, cluster munitions disperse bomblets that can fall on and kill multiple targets at once.

“It’s very effective against mixed targets, of personnel and equipment, especially when those targets are gathered into dense formations,” Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top North Atlantic Treaty Organization commander, told Congress last month.

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Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said last week that he hadn’t made up his mind whether the munitions should be provided but thought the issue should be considered.

“I’m not in favor of spreading cluster munitions around the world, but in this particular case the Russians are already doing that in Ukraine,” Smith told a meeting of the Council on Foreign Relations. “If those weapons are helpful, then it’s something I think we need to consider.”

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