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1
Posted on 5/1/23 at 8:00 pm to Lsupimp
quote:
What is considered the best source for true casualty numbers ?
Not Russia but average high with low from Western agencies, including Ukraine and you might get close
Posted on 5/1/23 at 8:55 pm to CitizenK
Isw update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine on the night of April 30 to May 1.
The White House assessed on May 1 that the Russian offensive against Bakhmut has failed.
Ukrainian officials continue to signal Ukraine’s readiness for potential counteroffensive operations.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using his rehabilitated standing with Russian leadership to amplify his self-promotion efforts and his longstanding issues with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
The Russian MoD confirmed the replacement of Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev with Colonel General Aleksey Kuzmenkov.
The Russian MoD opposition faction is likely attempting to remove select MoD officials by publicly criticizing their war efforts.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks along the Svatove-Kremmina line.
Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Ukrainian officials indicated that Wagner Group and other Russian forces are struggling to maintain their pace of offensive operations in Bakhmut.
Russian sources continue to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting raids across the Dnipro River.
The recent increased prevalence of Russian private military companies (PMCs) operating in Ukraine may be necessitating certain changes in the overall command structure.
Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian socio-economic system.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:33 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The White House assessed on May 1 that the Russian offensive against Bakhmut has failed.
Why?
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:37 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
The White House assessed on May 1 that the Russian offensive against Bakhmut has failed.
Why?
Why did it fail, or why was it declared a failure now?
It failed because Russia failed to execute their offense well, they threw untrained criminals into the fray, and Ukraine stood and fought.
Perhaps it was declared a failure now because it appears to have petered out.
This post was edited on 5/1/23 at 10:05 pm
Posted on 5/1/23 at 9:56 pm to doubleb
It's failed because Russia hasn't finished taking it yet, is unlikely to do so in the next week, and then might very well get pushed way back in the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.
And it's failed because it has all but destroyed Wagner.
And it's failed because it has all but destroyed Wagner.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:04 pm to doubleb
quote:
why was it declared a failure now
It hasn't ended and they aren't losing ground.
Is this one of those we lost but really won kind of things?
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:06 pm to DMAN1968
I imagine it could be viewed as a Pyrrhus of Epirus kinda thing. We won but we lost.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:12 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:”Meet the new bossquote:
The Russian MoD confirmed the replacement of Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev with Colonel General Aleksey Kuzmenkov.
Same as the old boss…”
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:19 pm to Obtuse1
Calling it a Pyrrhic Victory for Russia May be the most accurate way to look at it.
The gained back almost the entire city, but cannot afford any future victories of the sort.
Even then, it’s likely the success is temporary.
The gained back almost the entire city, but cannot afford any future victories of the sort.
Even then, it’s likely the success is temporary.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:27 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
I imagine it could be viewed as a Pyrrhus of Epirus kinda thing. We won but we lost.
If Ukraine has any significant success in its upcoming offensive, Russia's "offensive" this winter will ultimately come to be regarded as one of military history's greatest blunders.
If Russia had spent this winter increasing the defenses of its territories and had mobilized more men and not spent them all in the Bakhmut meat grinder, then the upcoming Ukrainian offensive would have almost no chance of success.
The Teixeira leak indicated that, in February, Russia had 30,000 troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to depend 150 km of the front line. That would be 200 men per km, if they were all on the front. Of course, they aren't. They are cooks, truck drivers, comms officers, military police, etc., and only a small minority of that force is actually on the front line to defend the trenches.
Russia still has much larger forces deployed near Kreminna and Bakhmut, because they have been attacking from those directions, and they don't have any significant fortifications, so I don't even think that they can redeploy significantly more men to the south to defend there, because that would open up areas in the northeast.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 10:34 pm to DMAN1968
Russia also lost VDV units in entirety trying to take ground in the area. Imagine losing all of 82nd Airborne needlessly, if you can.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 11:05 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If Russia had spent this winter increasing the defenses of its territories
quote:
That would be 200 men per km, if they were all on the front. Of course, they aren't. They are cooks, truck drivers, comms officers, military police, etc., and only a small minority of that force is actually on the front line to defend the trenches.
Intellectually I am very curious to see how effective Russia's static defenses are. Modern combined arms should be able to break through them and pour in behind them but this war is lacking any significant air power.
There are likely some areas capable of significant resistance but the front is just too big to cover with the men they seem to have available.
Posted on 5/1/23 at 11:47 pm to Stidham8
Discussed already early yesterday. Once again, late to the party to find out that it was where SS-24's from the Soviet era were stored after nuclear warheads removed and sent to Russia in the mid 1990's
Posted on 5/1/23 at 11:50 pm to Stidham8
quote:
One initial missile causes a huge explosion afterwards.
Some people don't think old rocket fuel be like it is but it do.
That camera was less than two miles away from the explosion, the people in the house must have shite themselves at 10pm.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 12:49 am to CitizenK
quote:
Discussed already early yesterday. Once again, late to the party to find out that it was where SS-24's from the Soviet era were stored after nuclear warheads removed and sent to Russia in the mid 1990's
But of course. Couldn’t have been anything of strategic value, according to the American propaganda machine.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 4:26 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 02 May 2023
On 27 April 2023, Russian military-linked social media claimed that Russia's Deputy Defence Minister Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev had been dismissed. Mizintsev held the military logistics portfolio, and had only been in post for eight months.
Mizintsev's sacking was not immediately confirmed, but speculation about his future highlights how logistics problems remain at the heart of Russia's struggling campaign. in Ukraine. Russia does not have enough munitions to achieve success on the offensive. Paucity of ammunition drives internal divisions, most notably between Russia's Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group.
Russia continues to give the highest priority to mobilising its defence industry, but it is still failing to meet war time demands. While Russia's political leaders persist in demanding success on the battlefield, Russia's logistics professionals are stuck in the middle.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 02 May 2023
On 27 April 2023, Russian military-linked social media claimed that Russia's Deputy Defence Minister Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev had been dismissed. Mizintsev held the military logistics portfolio, and had only been in post for eight months.
Mizintsev's sacking was not immediately confirmed, but speculation about his future highlights how logistics problems remain at the heart of Russia's struggling campaign. in Ukraine. Russia does not have enough munitions to achieve success on the offensive. Paucity of ammunition drives internal divisions, most notably between Russia's Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group.
Russia continues to give the highest priority to mobilising its defence industry, but it is still failing to meet war time demands. While Russia's political leaders persist in demanding success on the battlefield, Russia's logistics professionals are stuck in the middle.
This post was edited on 5/2/23 at 4:30 am
Posted on 5/2/23 at 6:20 am to Stidham8
quote:
Video of the strike on Pavlograd yesterday. One initial missile causes a huge explosion afterwards.
Interesting that the video your tweeter uses as proof of Russia blowing up a large supply of AD ammunition has been used by these guys to triangulate it to being the chemical plant that was hit, not the railway station where the AD munition was claimed to have been.
Twitter - @OAlexanderDK
This doesn't rule out potential storage of usable munitions at the chemical factory but it is much more likely to be as reported thus far, that it was the undisposed SS-24 boosters that went boom.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 6:20 am to Stidham8
quote:
But of course. It must have had strategic value and totally never hit civilan infrastructure, according to the Russian propaganda machine.
FIFY
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