re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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MCCARTHY to Russian reporter: “I support aid to Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine, or your killing of children. The rest of the world sees it for what it is.”

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Quality statement from the Speaker.

Edit: LINK

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Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut in last few months--80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed since December, NSC spokesman John Kirby says. Prigozhin's claim Wagner Group's had only 94 killed in action "is just a ludicrous claim."

Prigozhin claims Wagner Group has had 94 killed in action; US intel says about 10,000 Wagner fighters have been killed in Bakhmut alone, and since December alone, White House's John Kirby tells us.

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Kirby's statement doesn't quite make sense, as they can't have had 20,000 KIA since December in Bakhmut and also 10,000 KIA since December in Bakhmut. The numbers of 20,000 KIA and 80,000 WIA since December must refer to the entire conflict, not just Bakhmut.

Still, those are tremendous losses.

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Let me guess, Ukraine shot down 100 of 50 launched again?

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Ukraine claimed to have shot down 15 out of 18, which would imply that 3 hit somewhere. I don't know where those three hits are. Maybe one of them is the Pavlograd chemical plant, which was really hit earlier in the day, but maybe Ukraine is including it in the 18 missiles.

Ukraine's air defense has problems, because it's running out of rockets for its Soviet-era systems. For example, we saw a photo a few weeks ago of an Osa system that was only loaded with two rockets, instead of the usual six. And the two that were loaded were painted a desert tan color, because one of Ukraine's allies helped get some older rockets from Jordan. The older rockets, though, only hit about 50% of their targets, which is obviously much less than the 80% of the more modern rockets that Ukraine is essentially out of.

So, Ukraine is integrating Western air defense systems that are elite, such as Patriot, IRIS-T, SAMP-T, NASAMS, etc., but there are still far too few of these systems. And the older NATO systems that are being sent have mostly not arrived yet---the US promised Ukraine some old HAWK systems, but the refurbishment of them isn't complete yet, much less getting Ukrainians trained on the system and transporting it.

Ukraine is a large country, so it simply doesn't have enough air defense systems to defend both its front lines and its major cities. It's been using its jets to help out, as the Ukrainian air force has shot down a number of Russian missiles.

But everyone from Zelensky to Sec. Austin to all the military experts all agree that more air defense systems is Ukraine's biggest need.

Is anyone here actually bragging about how awesome Ukraine's air defense systems are? I think you may have come here with the wrong impression.

LINK

WSJ reporter Yaroslav Trofimov:

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The 1-5 KIA-WIA ratio for Wagner in Bakhmut doesn’t sound plausible. Having talked to captured Wagner medevac staff, it was closer to 1-to-1.

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(Note: Kirby's statement would actually be a 1-4 ratio.)

I would bet anything that these numbers from the Pentagon are "low confidence," just like the numbers from the Teixeira leaks.

Anyone see the one minute long version of the big boom yesterday or the day before? Damn, this is what I imagine a nuke looks like going off. Friggin huge

Did it echo????

ChrisO_wiki thread on possible UA offensive strategy

Admittedly long but really good. He’s suggesting what I thought weeks back, but with way more detail and work done on his part. More detailed knowledge on his part is a given compared to me.

TLDR: Ukrainian offensive South to Melitopol utilizing a 3 pronged attack over a 70 km wide lane of attack. 3 prongs: Vasylivka, Tokmak, and Polohy then converging on Melitopol. He gives troop and equipment needs and potential precursor missile strikes to support initiative.