re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

You need at least one more emoji to be convincing, imo.

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You are making my point. We had an active military operation in Iraq and they staged special ops at the embassy. They weren’t just guards. We have special ops in Ukraine not to guard an embassy but because we are actively involved in operations there. This is how we get drawn into a full scale war.

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Conjecture is just conjecture.

Lmao

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 April 2023

Russia has re-energised its assault on the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut as forces of the Russian MoD and Wagner Group have improved co-operation. The Ukrainian defence still holds the western districts of the town but has been subjected to particularly intense Russian artillery fire over the previous 48 hours.

Wagner assault groups continue to conduct the main advance through the centre of town, while Russian airborne forces (VDV) have relieved some Wagner units securing the northern and southern flanks of the operation.

Ukrainian forces face significant resupply issues but have made orderly withdrawals from the positions they have been forced to concede.

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Conjecture is just conjecture.

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Denial is just denial

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7-1 death reported on tucker

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If you actually think you get accurate info from Tucker than the joke is on you.

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If this is true and Ukraine is saying Russias has had ~200k casualties that would mean Ukraine has 1.4M casualties....I'm not buying that

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It could also be that the 200k number is inflated.

Tucker simply used the obviously doctored version of the leaked docs to say 7:1. It's because he knows that his followers are idiots who will believe whatever he says.

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It could also be that the 200k number is inflated.

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agreed, but most western intel has published around this number. But you're still talking about an insanely high number even if it's double (700,000 casualties to 100,000 casualties) that don't reflect the front line realities at all. If 7:1 was the case, Ukraine would not have made major advances in Kharkiv or Kherson and would not have held Kyiv and the rest of the front.

Just for the record, Ukraine had about 43.9M people in 2021. Of that, roughly 67.4% is aged 18 - 64. Assuming a 50/50 split on M/F, that means there about 14M men aged 18-64. 1M would mean that they have lost 6.7% of their Military Aged Men or 2.2% of their entire population. For reference, the US casualties in WWII amount to about 0.2% of the population and 0.3% in WWI. Germany lost 5% of their population in WWII and about 3% in WWI

Bloomberg

Ukraine’s Allies Fear War Breakthrough May Not Come Before Next Year

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Some of Ukraine’s European allies are increasingly skeptical its military will be able to make a decisive breakthrough this year because Russia’s defenses have had time to dig in ahead of the looming offensive. 

The mood among Western officials marks a sharp departure from late last year, when Kyiv surprised its allies - as well as Russia - with a pair of successful counteroffensives that recaptured large swathes of occupied land. 

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While a Ukrainian drive toward the city of Melitopol in the south, aimed at splitting Russian forces is widely expected, some European officials are now skeptical that can be achieved this year.

Instead, a more realistic target is now seen as a 30 km (20 mile) or so advance that would put Ukraine’s most capable artillery within range of Russian supply lines and create conditions for a deeper push in 2024, one of the officials said. Allies need to work now to enhance their production capacity and the support that will be needed to sustain those efforts, the official added.

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US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin pushed back against that pessimism in public this week. He said Kyiv remained confident of success in the counteroffensive after a meeting in Washington with his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov. The US would go on providing the “security assistance capability” to achieve it, Austin said.

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In my opinion, if Ukraine really cannot reach the sea of Azov by the end of this summer, then they should concentrate instead on an attack in the Northeast.

But I also do not place much weight on quotes by unnamed Western officials