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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/18/23 at 8:49 am to StormyMcMan
Posted on 3/18/23 at 8:49 am to StormyMcMan
Warfare is changing so rapidly. Look at this new footage of a Ukrainian nighttime drone unit taking out 10 Russian tanks and other armored vehicles. In one night. Ten! With a drone.
LINK
LINK
quote:
Nine or ten? TEN! ??
That is how many Russian tanks were destroyed by special forces of the SBU "White Wolves" in just one night!
One enemy armored personnel carrier was also burned. Thus, on her account ELEVEN destroyed targets! Overnight.
We continue to work until complete Victory!
2
Posted on 3/18/23 at 10:16 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
O'Brien has applied those same principles to the current war, arguing that the economic and industrial power of NATO can easily enable Ukraine to win the war, if NATO wishes to do so.
We can churn out a virtually bottomless pit of weaponry if necessary. The question remains whether the Ukrainians will still have enough men to operate them. They're going to put another 60,000 NATO-trained troops in the field in May with NATO equipment. The Russians are going to throw 500,000 men in with shitty equipment, shitty leadership, shitty morale, and virtually no training. It'll be the ultimate quantity vs quality showdown.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 10:48 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
NATO militaries combined could train thousands more soldiers than they are right now. Ukraine is definitely in a transitional state as far as Russian vs western mentality but the more guys we train the better chance you have to change their ways, even if the training is very fast. The older officers who are set in their ways need to be shown the door.
The flip side to this (which I agree with you on) is that Ukraine just can't afford to take as many people out of active combat roles right now to go train. Plus, I'm not sure how many more capable volunteers and conscripts they can really draw on. Most of those either volunteered early on, or fled at the very beginning. I think they're trying to do a tough balancing act to keep the front strong enough to stop Russia and train enough to be able to really throw a strong punch this spring and summer. Because, as others have said, this whole thing likely hinges on this spring/summer offensive from Ukraine. After that, they just do t have the manpower or economy to to hold out for a long, attritional war past that. They can with full NATO commitment t, but who knows if that's in the cards for a long, drawn-out stalemate.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 10:50 am to cypher
quote:
Many 18-21 year old men currently claim exemption from the draft due to being in higher education.
I wonder if the bone spur angle gets any traction with their draft board.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 11:01 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
Prigozhin announced plans to recruit another 30,000 people in the "Wagner" PMC
#Prigozhin said that previously mercenaries for the PMCs were recruited in #Russian prisons, but only 30% of them were sufficiently trained, while 70% needed training.
In February, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the "Wagner" PMC has lost 30,000 people during the year of war in #Ukraine. The Wagner PMC suffered the largest losses in fierce fighting near #Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. Earlier, the Financial Times reported, citing U.S. authorities' estimates, that during the fighting in the Soledar-Bakhmut area, Prigozhin's company lost 4,000 mercenaries dead and 10,000 wounded.
LINK
quote:
A visibly limping Putin arrived in occupied Crimea
Russian sources report Putin's visit to Sevastopol to «celebrate» the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea
Which, by the way, will be one of the items on Putin's list of accusations at The Hague Court.
LINK
Posted on 3/18/23 at 11:03 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
That's why Russia needs to lose this war. A negotiated peace that allows Russia to gain anything from this conflict only fuels the Russian imperial ambition. Russia needs to lose conclusively, so that, like Japan and Germany after WWII, the Russian people can reflect on their moral failure and reject the imperial impulse.
That may be true but for them to lose so decisively they are forced to completely reorient their worldview would mean other countries rolled into Russia and started blowing up their cities. But of course if anyone tries to do that the nukes start to fall...
Posted on 3/18/23 at 11:05 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Warfare is changing so rapidly. Look at this new footage of a Ukrainian nighttime drone unit taking out 10 Russian tanks and other armored vehicles. In one night. Ten! With a drone.
That’s pretty damn awesome video. Send Ukraine another 100 of those type of drones. LOL
Posted on 3/18/23 at 11:37 am to Dr RC
quote:
That may be true but for them to lose so decisively they are forced to completely reorient their worldview would mean other countries rolled into Russia and started blowing up their cities.
That's why this is such a delicate operation and we're going to keep Ukraine on a very tight leash. We need Russia to be completely stonewalled at every turn until they have insufficient resources and men to wage war; however, we can't let the Ukrainians take the fight into Russia proper. The pre-2014 borders are as far as we can let them go. One of Russia's biggest problems is that they are running out of military-aged men demographically. If Ukraine can stop these next few pushes, Russia will probably be incapable of waging offensive wars in the future.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 11:55 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
A visibly limping Putin arrived in occupied Crimea
He has a little hitch in his getalong but I wouldn't call it much of a limp at all. If I saw a random person on the street walking like that I wouldn't give it a second thought. I'm eager to see signs of Putin's decline but this doesn't seem like anything.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 12:29 pm to Tantal
All that sounds good, but remember what Germany did. They were ground down in WWI losing millions of men and millions of civilians; yet 20 years later they were full tilt in WWII.
Would Russia take a loss and simply retire to the sidelines, or would they sulk, regroup and come back in twenty years? Their history says they would.
It’s a real shame too. Those nukes really make them untouchable in a lot of ways. You have to acknowledge that and not force them to the brink.
Would Russia take a loss and simply retire to the sidelines, or would they sulk, regroup and come back in twenty years? Their history says they would.
It’s a real shame too. Those nukes really make them untouchable in a lot of ways. You have to acknowledge that and not force them to the brink.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 12:30 pm to Jim Rockford
I wonder if in 1000 years Jews in Ukraine will light candles to commemorate that winter when 72 hours to defeat lasted all the way till spring.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 12:51 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Any notable book on the history of Russia, it's plain to see that they never have thought like the West, not even close.
I'm reading a book titled Russia - The Once and Future Empire From Pre-History to Putin by a guy named Philip Longworth. It was published in 2005 I think.
I'm not very far into it yet, but his theory seems to be that due to the short sowing, growing and harvesting seasons and the unsuitability of much of the land (swamps, arid regions, etc.), the people have had to traditionally rely on each other to get things planted, grown and harvested on time. Thus, the sense of independence which developed in the west never developed there. Moreover, the people at the top of the chain were motivated to conquer more and more territory to build up their wealth.
I have no idea how accurate or insightful that is, but that is his theory. Another theory he has is that Russia has gone through a series of expansions and collapses in a cycle that keeps repeating.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 1:04 pm to Tantal
quote:
we can't let the Ukrainians take the fight into Russia proper
There has been absolutely no suggestion that anyone has any intent or desire to try to invade and conquer Russia. This isn't remotely on the table.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 1:14 pm to doubleb
No satellite recon to see that Russia was hosting German training and build up of land forces in the 1930's.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 1:27 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Would Russia take a loss and simply retire to the sidelines, or would they sulk, regroup and come back in twenty years? Their history says they would.
There are reasons why that's not plausible, beyond impoverishment. To fight a war in 20 years, you need to have babies today.
The Russians in 2022, according to state numbers-- which are always a touch high- were 11.61 live births among all citizens of the Federation, an appalling number-- and a number that's declined by over 2% year for a half decade, and overall, each year since 2013. You don't just have to have soldiers, either-- you have to have the tax base to pay for them, the labor to substitute into your industrial base while they are off taking over the next thing.
When you take in mind that the number is even more dire among people with strong ethnic Russian identity, it becomes a much clearer picture-- if you want to say a regional Dagestani leader might become froggy and want to cause trouble, then sure. You tell me an ethnic Russian leader will be in a position to seriously challenge Western interests? I'll be very, very, very healthily skeptical. The country is far more likely to be rocked by internal demographic pressures, than it is to be a substantive threat to its neighbors. This is the last great demographic war, and it had to happen before the coming freefall in Russian-Russian populations-- and now they are sacrificing a substantial part of their dwindling youth on dying in Ukraine, or having fled abroad for survival.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 1:36 pm to CitizenK
quote:
No satellite recon to see that Russia was hosting German training and build up of land forces in the 1930's.
Russia loses, retreats to their borders, and regroups. They take their time. They rebuild. They train millions of troops.
Sure we can see all of this coming, but what can we do?
If Russia maintains their current philosophy, they will be back doing their old tricks. Sad, but true.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 2:22 pm to TBoy
quote:
There has been absolutely no suggestion that anyone has any intent or desire to try to invade and conquer Russia.
A lot of Russian manufacturing, particularly as it applies to weapons building, is in western Russia. If not for the nukes, it would be tempting to neutralize those.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 2:26 pm to doubleb
quote:
Would Russia take a loss and simply retire to the sidelines, or would they sulk, regroup and come back in twenty years?
Their demographics won't allow that. They are literally almost out of young people.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 3:14 pm to CitizenK
quote:
No satellite recon to see that Russia was hosting German training and build up of land forces in the 1930's
Nah, lots of States knew what was going on. They just didn't realize the full set of circumstances that led to Hitler and his Megalomania.
Spying isn't anything new. Europe certainly knew the Germans were producing war machines.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 3:44 pm to GOP_Tiger
I call that a damn good nights work! What the hell was he dropping from those drones? They looked huge like the size of a 105 mm artillery shell. I’m sure it was some sort of anti tank grenade but it was a big one.
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