re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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What the hell was he dropping from those drones?

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Ukraine Is Fielding A ‘Heinz 57’ Fleet Of Heavy Drone Bombers Against Russian Forces

One of the largest ...

The Ukrainians are using large drones to deliver heavier bombs. A video released in October shows what look like a DJI Matrice, said to be flown by Belorussian volunteers and dropping a single 120mm mortar bomb. These bombs weight about 25 pounds,

Large drones are easy enough to acquire or build that Ukrainian forces are not waiting for the military procurement process to deliver, but are assembling their own airpower on the spot. The results are impressive and given an idea of what small non-state actors could achieve — something that other armies need to heed.

By next year we may see mass production of bomber drones and more standardized models in the fields. For the time being, there is a whole Pokémon collection of different types out there, growing all the time and difficult if not impossible to fully catalog.

That is badass thanks for clearing that up. If they can have a drone that can carry multiple 82 mm or 120 mm mortars that has thermal too I feel really sorry for Russian tankers. That thing did some serious work.

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I assume Taiwan has a very large fleet of drones underground ready to swarm anything that approaches their shore. Like bees pouring out of a beehive. Or at least I hope they do. Or at least I hope they are working at that as we speak

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After seeing the changes to battlefield equipment in the war. Drones would be a freak counter to the Chinese trying to swarm the channel with smaller boats with troops. Harpoon (or similar) are great against large targets but not vs smaller targets and are not enough in supply. But a drone with a with a mortar or armor piercing round could easily disable or take out a smaller vessel.

Anti drone ware fare has to be on every militaries top list now.

And light AA, deemed obsolete on the battlefield, is once again a needed as it is more effective on smaller/cheaper targets

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After seeing the changes to battlefield equipment in the war. Drones would be a freak counter to the Chinese trying to swarm the channel with smaller boats with troops.

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It does work both ways.

Early in last's year's fighting when everyone was calling for A-10's to Brrrt their way through Russian columns, a friend who is a retired A-10 squadron commander told me that drones were the way to go instead of more expensive planes and pilots on mostly one way trips.

Bakhmut updates for today:


From @NOELreports:

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In Bakhmut little has changed compared to this morning. Ukrainian troops pushed Russian troops back a little to the east of the Mig-17 monument. Heavy fighting continues around Khromove. In the north of Bakhmut it is oddly quiet.

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From the pro-Russian @200_Zoka:

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Ukranians make small counter attacks near Bahmut

For now counter attacks are more measures to keep two roads open for supplying Bahmut.I'm not dooming or making up things,map made by geolocations.

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From @War_Mapper:

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There have been no confirmed changes to control since the last update.

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(Note that this exact text was also yesterday's Bakhmut update from this account.

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My question: is it safe yet to say that ISW was right, and that the Bakhmut offensive from Wagner is culminating?

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1637159653288079362?s=46&t=iUvs7rWg8aY1BNuaLnpUwQ

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Russia’s Long Range Missile Stocks based on Ukraine’s ???? reporting as of March 18, 2023 Russia is currently estimated to have 155 Kalibr, X-101/Kh-55, and Kinzhal missiles remaining in stock

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I'm betting they're out of men/material.

The actual Russian army had better be ready. Wagner will not have the numbers to support/defend them like last year.

LINK

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Russian forces targeted Ukraine with 16 Shahed-136 drones overnight on March 17-18. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat stated that Ukrainian forces shot down 11 of the 16 drones and noted that it is difficult for Ukrainian mobile fire groups to shoot down drones at night due to the lack of visibility.[1] The drones targeted facilities in Kyiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Lviv oblasts, reportedly including a Ukrainian fuel warehouse in Novomoskovsk, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[2] Russian sources claimed that Russian drone strikes also targeted Kyiv Thermal Power Plant 5, which Russian forces reportedly targeted in a strike campaign on March 9

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Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his campaign against anti-war dissent and the misappropriation of military assets within Russia. Putin signed two bills into law on March 18 that significantly increase the fines and jail time for discrediting Russian forces in Ukraine and for selling Russian arms to foreign actors.[4] Russian sources reported that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) personnel detained over 40 people in raids against two Moscow bars for suspicion of financing Ukrainian forces and made patrons participate in pro-war activities on March 17.[5] Russian sources have increasingly reported on FSB detaining Russian civilians under suspicion of financially assisting Ukrainian forces since February 28 after Putin instructed the FSB to intensify counterintelligence measures and crackdown against the spread of pro-Ukrainian ideology

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Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigohzin is likely attempting to set informational conditions to explain the Wagner Group’s culmination around Bakhmut. Prigozhin-affiliated outlet RIA FAN published an interview with Prigozhin on March 17 in which he asserted that Ukrainian forces are preparing to launch counteroffensives in five separate directions: into Belgorod Oblast, in the Kreminna area, in the Bakhmut area, towards Donetsk City, and in Zaporizhia Oblast.[7] Prigozhin stated that Ukrainian forces will launch these operations starting in mid-April and urged Russian forces to prepare for these counteroffensives by preserving ammunition and equipment.[8] Prigozhin likely depicted Ukrainian forces as having enough combat power to launch a massive theater-wide counteroffensive to justify the Wagner Group’s inability to complete an envelopment or encirclement of Bakhmut. Prigozhin stated that Ukrainian forces are preparing to counterattack Wagner’s flanks in the Bakhmut area and that Wagner fighters are preparing for these counterattacks

Prigozhin may be implying that the overall Russian offensive in Ukraine is nearing culmination by calling for Russian forces to preserve resources for Ukrainian counteroffensives. Prigozhin’s forecast about five separate Ukrainian counteroffensives is mirror-imaging—Russian forces have specialized in conducting multiple simultaneous advances along diverging axes that are not mutually supporting, which is one of the reasons for Russian failures in the war so far. Prigozhin may have forecasted a Ukrainian counteroffensive in five directions to amplify the relevance of his calls for Russian forces to preserve ammunition and equipment and out of concerns that widespread ammunition and equipment shortages are constraining the Wagner Group’s and the Russian military’s ability to maintain offensive operations in Ukraine. Prigozhin’s depiction of imminent Ukrainian counteroffensives also implies that he believes that Russian forces will lose the initiative to Ukraine soon and be forced onto the defensive rather than continuing stalled or unsuccessful offensives in the Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, or Vuhledar areas.

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Russian regional authorities may be severing their connections with Prigozhin. Prigozhin claimed that the Goryachiy Klyuch, Krasnodar Krai authorities reneged on a prior agreement to bury Wagner Group deceased mercenaries in the town.[13] Goryachiy Klyuch Head Sergey Belopolskyi claimed that locals do not think that the resort town Goryachiy Klyuch is an appropriate place to bury Wagner fighters.[14] Prigozhin also released a phone call in which a Goryachiy Klyuch official told a Wagner representative that Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev stripped him of authority to cooperate with Wagner.[15] Wagner servicemen also released a threatening video appeal to the local administration claiming that they will “personally solve the issue” with the administration if they do not respond to the appeals.[16] The Wagner Group has used training and burial grounds in Krasnodar Krai in the past, indicating that Prigozhin likely has extensive, long-term connections to regional authorities that may now be weakening.[17] Prigozhin previously fought with St. Petersburg officials over their refusal to bury deceased Wagner mercenaries in the same burial ground as conventional Russian soldiers, as ISW has previously reported

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Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated on March 18 that the Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist goals in Ukraine. Zakharova stated that Russia is ready to hear Western and Ukrainian proposals for the diplomatic settlement of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but noted that the West will need to remove all sanctions and lawsuits from Russia.[19] Zakharova continued to reject Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s conditions for peace talks by noting that the removal of Russian forces from occupied Ukrainian territories, reparation obligations, and attendance at international tribunals are “unrelated” to the establishment of peace in Ukraine. Zakharova instead claimed that peace in Ukraine depends on the West ceasing its weapon deliveries to Ukraine, the international recognition “of new territorial realities,” and the demilitarization and “denazification” of Ukraine. Zakharova's demands mirror Russian President Vladimir Putin’s maximalist objectives announced on February 24, 2022, and are a continuation of the Kremlin's ongoing information operation to prompt the West to offer preemptive concessions and coerce Ukraine into negotiations on conditions more favorable to Russia.

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BBC and Russian opposition news outlet Mediazona reported on March 17 that Russian forces (excluding Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] and Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] militiamen) have suffered a confirmed 17,375 deaths, a conservative estimate of 35,000 total deaths, and 157,000 casualties. BBC claimed that total pro-Russia forces’ casualties may exceed 211,500 people. BBC noted that 1,304 of the dead it has confirmed perished within the past two weeks, indicating that recent casualties are significantly higher than the 2022 average. The majority of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine reportedly come from outside of Russia’s major urban centers. Moscow—which comprises 9% of the entire Russian population—has suffered only 107 confirmed deaths while Krasnodar Krai has suffered 714, Sverdlovsk Oblast has suffered 664, and Buryatia has suffered 567

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Ukraine claims a strike almost 100km behind the Russian line in Southern Ukraine. Blowing up a base and 80 troops.

if it's confirmed would it be GLSDB? I don't think a regular HIMARS rocket has that range.

LINK

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Today Dennis Davydov has the most upbeat assessment of Bakhmut that he's had in a while.

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Likeable guy, sometimes very much a homer, sometimes spot on.