re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Lots of people in Russia are reacting very dramatically to the news of the ICC arrest warrant for Putin.

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The Russian propaganda presence on Twitter, that has exploded over the last two weeks, is going batshit insane right now. Prigozhin is wanting to be the next President, the arrest warrant, deep reckoning about the inability to take Bahkmut, the daily casualty numbers and the promised fighter jet deliveries have the Russians in complete disarray in the propaganda sphere. It’s as if the child kidnapping issue is the last straw that breaks the bridge.

I think I’m starting to see the wisdom of the defense of Bahkmut. The Ukrainians are applying tremendous psychological pressure in not retreating in that relatively inconsequential city. No matter what the Russians throw at the task, they can’t win, and it is killing them.

I’ll be the first to admit that whatever I think I know about Russia, I don’t understand how Russians actually think. Apparently the Ukrainians understand something about the pressure this is putting on the Russian psyche. It’s fascinating.

Need to get those vehicles painted they stand out in desert camo.

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Lvova-Belova is a mid-level functionary. There are lots of people at levels in between her and Putin who now have to worry if they are the next to be indicted -- oh, and who know that they will probably never again be able to go on a summer vacation in most of Europe.

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Are they really concerned about this? Won't they wear it as a badge of honor in Russia?

Dr. O'Brien has been one of those who has predicted Ukrainian victory since the beginning of the war. We've talked about him a couple of times in here.

O'Brien is known for his WWII book, How the War Was Won, which argues that the American economy and capacity for industrial production made a WWII victory inevitable in the long run. This was especially true in Europe once the Allies could bomb German factories and disrupt German industry.

O'Brien has applied those same principles to the current war, arguing that the economic and industrial power of NATO can easily enable Ukraine to win the war, if NATO wishes to do so.

He has pointed out repeatedly that the GDP and even the industrial production of the Tallinn Group (the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Czechia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia) far, far exceeds Russia's capacity.

And the sanctions are further restricting the Russian economy and its industrial capacity. The upshot is that Russia can't win unless NATO lets it win.

Any notable book on the history of Russia, it's plain to see that they never have thought like the West, not even close. Their mindset is more like the Mongols and why massive corruption has been around for centuries. It's more like a Mafia type government, the guy at the top gets the biggest cut of all. Those just under him get the next biggest. These don't have to do anything. It's just common knowledge handed down for centuries that the low guy gives the biggest percentage of his ill gotten gains up the chain.

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

The Russian authorities are likely preparing to facilitate wider military conscription to resource its military requirements. On 13 March 2023, Russian Duma deputies introduced a bill to change the age bracket for conscription to men aged 21-30 years, from the current 18-27. The law is likely to be passed, and would come into force in January 2024.

Russia has continued to run conscription call-up cycles twice a year since Soviet times. They are distinct from the exceptional 'partial mobilisation' of veterans carried out since September 2022. Russia continues to officially bar conscripts from operations in Ukraine, though at least hundreds have probably served through administrative mix ups or after being coerced to sign
contracts.

Many 18-21 year old men currently claim exemption from the draft due to being in higher education. The authorities are highly likely changing the age bracket to bolster troop numbers by ensuring that students are eventually forced to serve. Even if Russia continues to refrain from deploying conscripts in the war, extra conscripts will free up a greater proportion of professional soldiers to fight.

Absolutely insane.

LINK

On Russian TV, Semen Bagdasarov, who is a retired colonel and a former member of parliament, says that Russia should take advantage of the earthquake in Turkey to seize Istanbul and annex Turkey.

Even if Turkey were not part of NATO, this would be absurd. So many in Russia simply refuse to see the pathetic condition of their armed forces.

And if people aren't following the war closely, I think that they fail to see how bloodlust and imperial desire have consumed Russia. It's not just Putin; it's the Russian people. The war in Ukraine is not about some minor "territorial dispute."

That's why Russia needs to lose this war. A negotiated peace that allows Russia to gain anything from this conflict only fuels the Russian imperial ambition. Russia needs to lose conclusively, so that, like Japan and Germany after WWII, the Russian people can reflect on their moral failure and reject the imperial impulse.

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It's more like a Mafia type government, the guy at the top gets the biggest cut of all. Those just under him get the next biggest. These don't have to do anything.

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100%. That is exactly what Putin's government is. It's not communist, it's Mafia.

ISW March 17th

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Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to discuss sanctions evasion schemes and Chinese interest in mediating a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin stated that Putin and Xi plan to sign unspecified bilateral documents and discuss topical issues in Russia’s and China’s comprehensive partnership.[1] Chinese companies have reportedly sold rifles, drone parts, and equipment to Russian entities that could be used for military purposes, and Western intelligence agencies have stated that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia

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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that Belarusian industry is supplying Russia with electronic components, potentially supporting previous ISW assessments that Belarus may assist Russia in evading Western sanctions. Lukashenko stated on March 17 that Belarus and Russia signed an agreement on establishing a joint Belarusian-Russian center for the development and production of photomasks (an intermediate good used in the production of integrated circuits), that the two states have developed a list of critically important electronic components, and that Belarusian industry has already begun shipping unspecified microelectronics to Russian enterprises.

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Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s rhetoric about Belgrade’s refusal to sanction Russia is softening. Vucic refused to promise that Serbia will not sanction Russia, acknowledged that Belgrade’s decision not to join European sanctions against Russia has brought Serbia “tough [economic] circumstances,” and stated that he will evaluate "when we are in a deadlock and when our policy has to change” on March 17.[8] Serbian Economy Minister Rade Basta called on the Serbian government to impose sanctions on Russia and stated that Serbia is paying a "high price" for not doing so on March 14.[9] Politico previously reported that Vucic is seemingly reconsidering Serbia’s close ties with Russia, spurred in part by ongoing Wagner Group recruitment and subversion efforts in Serbia and demonstrating the international economic and informational costs imposed on Putin by his invasion of Ukraine

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The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on March 17 for alleged war crimes involving the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia

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Russian outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that it did not submit a press request to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin concerning a rumored plot by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev against him. Nezavismaya Gazeta suggested that someone responsible for fabricating the request is actively engaged in fomenting conflict between different siloviki structures, which may support ISW’s March 16 assessment that Prigozhin likely promoted the alleged plot to support informational campaigns against the Russian military establishment.

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Key Takeaways

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to discuss sanctions evasion schemes and Chinese interest in mediating a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that Belarusian industry is supplying Russia electronic components, potentially supporting previous ISW assessments that Belarus may assist Russia to evade Western sanctions.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s rhetoric about Belgrade’s refusal to sanction Russia is softening.

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on March 17 for alleged war crimes involving the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Russian outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that it did not submit a press request to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin concerning a rumored plot by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev against him.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks across the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces along the front line in southern Ukraine.

The Kremlin continues to call up reservists throughout Russia.

Russian authorities reportedly detained three Ukrainian partisans in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

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