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Posted on 3/18/23 at 10:19 pm to dagrippa
Russian media are reporting that Putin visited Mariupol.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 10:21 pm to AU86
quote:
I have always wondered if he has a pilot license why isn't he flying in the Ukrainian air force or at least trained to fly a fighter jet and why was he allowed to leave the country?
He started flying at a young age and became a commercial pilot. He failed the physical to be a military pilot, per one of his shows. Government likely sees his YouTube as being beneficial to their cause.
Posted on 3/18/23 at 10:50 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
He has a little hitch in his getalong but I wouldn't call it much of a limp at all. If I saw a random person on the street walking like that I wouldn't give it a second thought. I'm eager to see signs of Putin's decline but this doesn't seem like anything.
He face looked plastic a fake too. He's always had a little hitch in his step but this time it seems labored
Posted on 3/18/23 at 11:03 pm to CitizenK
Russian petrochemical plant on fire. A little looking around and maybe half the size of Sasol in Westlake which is still quite large. Ethylene cracker and a number of downstream processes. I noticed that they made polycarbonates (used for sunglasses and glasses among a host of other things) which uses hydrogen cyanide in the process.
Who knows which unit is on fire.
For BR folks, likely about the size of Borden Chemical, Geismar before it went bankrupt
LINK
Who knows which unit is on fire.
For BR folks, likely about the size of Borden Chemical, Geismar before it went bankrupt
LINK
This post was edited on 3/18/23 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 3/19/23 at 12:44 am to GOP_Tiger
For a guy who locked himself away in one of his secluded dachas from even his closest advisors for fear of getting COVID, I would think visiting somewhere like Mariupol would be a job for one of his lookalikes. He has several. He’s a very paranoid man I can’t see him putting himself out there for target practice from a random person. But he was in Crimea too and that sure looked like him so maybe he was feeling lucky.
This post was edited on 3/19/23 at 1:08 am
Posted on 3/19/23 at 5:38 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 19 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 3 March 2023, authorities in the Russian-controlled part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast published a decree that declared occupied Melitopol as the oblast capital. The Russian-installed head of the oblast, Evgeniy Balitskiy, said that this was a temporary measure until the city of Zaporizhzhia was controlled by Russia.
Zaporizhzhia is one of the four oblasts President Putin claimed to have annexed as part of the Russian Federation on 30 September 2022. Russia has never occupied Zaporizhzhia city, a major industrial centre of 700,000 people, which is approximately 35km from the current front line.
The quiet declaration of an alternative capital is likely tacit acknowledgement within the Russian system that its forces are highly unlikely to seize previously planned major objectives in the near future.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 19 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 3 March 2023, authorities in the Russian-controlled part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast published a decree that declared occupied Melitopol as the oblast capital. The Russian-installed head of the oblast, Evgeniy Balitskiy, said that this was a temporary measure until the city of Zaporizhzhia was controlled by Russia.
Zaporizhzhia is one of the four oblasts President Putin claimed to have annexed as part of the Russian Federation on 30 September 2022. Russia has never occupied Zaporizhzhia city, a major industrial centre of 700,000 people, which is approximately 35km from the current front line.
The quiet declaration of an alternative capital is likely tacit acknowledgement within the Russian system that its forces are highly unlikely to seize previously planned major objectives in the near future.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 6:25 am to cypher
More Ukrainian progress, again from the pro-Russian @200_zoka
quote:
T 0504 road can be again used by Ukranians for supplys
Posted on 3/19/23 at 6:44 am to GOP_Tiger
It really sounds like Prigozhin is giving up on the idea of taking Bakhmut right now.
From @wartranslated:
"The perspectives at the moment are foggy ... We need to concentrate on one thing, on winning, which means holding the frontline, moving forward forgetting all disagreements and resentments ... So, on the perspectives and what needs to be done, we need to focus and wait for the strikes from the enemy, and be ready to repel these strikes. I think that we have a couple of weeks to prepare. And if we don't do it, later it will be too late ..."
From @wartranslated:
"The perspectives at the moment are foggy ... We need to concentrate on one thing, on winning, which means holding the frontline, moving forward forgetting all disagreements and resentments ... So, on the perspectives and what needs to be done, we need to focus and wait for the strikes from the enemy, and be ready to repel these strikes. I think that we have a couple of weeks to prepare. And if we don't do it, later it will be too late ..."
Posted on 3/19/23 at 7:19 am to GOP_Tiger
With Prigozhin's defeatist message above, I now personally believe that the Ukrainian command has been vindicated in its defense of Bakhmut. I was concerned about its plan for a long time, but it worked.
Ukraine has ended up defeating every strategic objective of Russia's "big offensive." Do y'all remember a few months ago, when people were speculating that Russia could make a big drive in from Belarus and make another attempt to seize Kyiv? Russia ended up capturing a few small towns, and some farms and woods -- the biggest town captured was Soledar, which had a pre-war population of some 10k people.
And yesterday was one of the worst days for Russian equipment in a long time. The 21 tanks destroyed obviously includes the 10 that we already saw in the video from the drone unit, but even besides that, Russia continues to lose large numbers of equipment that it cannot replace.
Of course, that's Ukraine's list, and we can't verify its accuracy.
But if you look at visually confirmed destruction from Oryx's list, it's lately been much the same story.
Here's an interesting visualization from a few days ago. If you look only at the heavy equipment (I think this guy's chart from Oryx's list excludes drones and trucks), you can see that the ratio of Russian losses to Ukrainian losses has been above 3:1 for the last 45 days or so. That's a much higher ratio that we've seen since November.
So, the final outcome of Russia's big offensive simply means Russia destroying much of its armor and heavy equipment. It's been a fantastic event for Ukraine.
If you're wondering what this ratio has looked like in the past, it was very high in the first weeks of the invasion, when Russia lost lots of equipment. Then, when Russia used a rain of artillery to take Severodonetsk and more of the Donbas last summer, the ratio dropped to almost 1:1. It then jumped to over 5:1 in September and October, as the Kharkiv offensive meant that Ukraine captured a lot of equipment and Russia's Kherson retreat showed a lot of damaged equipment left behind.
Ukraine has ended up defeating every strategic objective of Russia's "big offensive." Do y'all remember a few months ago, when people were speculating that Russia could make a big drive in from Belarus and make another attempt to seize Kyiv? Russia ended up capturing a few small towns, and some farms and woods -- the biggest town captured was Soledar, which had a pre-war population of some 10k people.
And yesterday was one of the worst days for Russian equipment in a long time. The 21 tanks destroyed obviously includes the 10 that we already saw in the video from the drone unit, but even besides that, Russia continues to lose large numbers of equipment that it cannot replace.
Of course, that's Ukraine's list, and we can't verify its accuracy.
But if you look at visually confirmed destruction from Oryx's list, it's lately been much the same story.
Here's an interesting visualization from a few days ago. If you look only at the heavy equipment (I think this guy's chart from Oryx's list excludes drones and trucks), you can see that the ratio of Russian losses to Ukrainian losses has been above 3:1 for the last 45 days or so. That's a much higher ratio that we've seen since November.
So, the final outcome of Russia's big offensive simply means Russia destroying much of its armor and heavy equipment. It's been a fantastic event for Ukraine.
If you're wondering what this ratio has looked like in the past, it was very high in the first weeks of the invasion, when Russia lost lots of equipment. Then, when Russia used a rain of artillery to take Severodonetsk and more of the Donbas last summer, the ratio dropped to almost 1:1. It then jumped to over 5:1 in September and October, as the Kharkiv offensive meant that Ukraine captured a lot of equipment and Russia's Kherson retreat showed a lot of damaged equipment left behind.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 8:06 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russian media are reporting that Putin visited Mariupol.
He visited Crimea. It was the anniversary of the steal.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 8:11 am to GOP_Tiger
Just think about what must be going thru the minds of the Ukrainian collaborators as the days wind down before the offensive .
They do not want to be left behind if Russians retreat, but they will not be a priority when that happens.
You gotta figure these folks will be getting out soon…
They do not want to be left behind if Russians retreat, but they will not be a priority when that happens.
You gotta figure these folks will be getting out soon…
Posted on 3/19/23 at 8:36 am to nitwit
quote:
Just think about what must be going thru the minds of the Ukrainian collaborators as the days wind down before the offensive .
They are savoring every sip of vodka that they can get, knowing that they won't get any while they're on trial in The Hague.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 9:13 am to GOP_Tiger
Imagine how much damage Wagner/ Russia could have done if they had focused on defense/ supply/ training over winter like Ukraine did instead of attacking a heavily defended city due one mans insistence on taking it.
This really is shaping up like Stalingrad.
This really is shaping up like Stalingrad.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 9:44 am to jfan244888
quote:
.@TheStudyofWar one year ago today:
“#Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial #Russian campaign of this war.”
LINK
Posted on 3/19/23 at 10:35 am to jfan244888
quote:
This really is shaping up like Stalingrad.
It’s amazing to me how history repeats itself.
We consider our modern society to be so much more evolved than our ancestors. Yet when you boil out the bullshite, you recognize nothing has changed except the weapons employed
Posted on 3/19/23 at 11:09 am to CitizenK
No satellite recon to see that Russia was hosting German training and build up of land forces in the 1930's.
No satellite recon... in the 1930's....??? What are you talking about?
No satellite recon... in the 1930's....??? What are you talking about?
Posted on 3/19/23 at 1:09 pm to GOP_Tiger
I am not saying that the Battle of Bakhmut is over, because it isn't. But I think that the outcome, for the time being, is now known. There's no other way to hear Prigozhin's statement than as an admission of defeat.
But pro-Russian accounts still think that they are going to win. They are excited about the possibility of taking a big chunk of the southern part of the city all at once.
But pro-Russian accounts still think that they are going to win. They are excited about the possibility of taking a big chunk of the southern part of the city all at once.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 1:19 pm to Tigeralum2008
Indeed. Thing is, Hitler at least was the leader of Germany. He could impose his will on his generals to do what he wanted them to do.
Prigozhin? He's just a rich guy who runs a company. His own ego (taking Bahkmut) and ambition (becoming leader of Russia/Ukraine due to military victories) this winter could bring great adverse affects to Russia soon.
I hope he/ his family and secret homes stashed away. They're going to be marked people should/when Russia start losing territory.
Prigozhin? He's just a rich guy who runs a company. His own ego (taking Bahkmut) and ambition (becoming leader of Russia/Ukraine due to military victories) this winter could bring great adverse affects to Russia soon.
I hope he/ his family and secret homes stashed away. They're going to be marked people should/when Russia start losing territory.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 2:35 pm to jefffan
quote:
Prigozhin? He's just a rich guy who runs a company
A thug and a former convict himself. He makes his money in Syria and Africa. The Syrian government gives them a percentage of every oil field that they capture and hold because the Syrian army can't. Assad's payment for Russia propping up his government. That is why they got their asses waxed a few years ago in Syria by Americans. They were trying to take one if those oil fields, just happens they picked the wrong one that time.
He gets the same deal in Africa by propping up corrupt governments and getting a cut of their diamond mines, mineral mines, etc. He has sent his thugs to Libya and they established bases there in 2020. Russia supports Haftar and his anti government forces. A large amount of uranium disappeared recently from territory not held by government forces. I wonder where that Uranium went? Could it be payment for drones and ammunition?
This post was edited on 3/19/23 at 2:51 pm
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