re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Wow. frick that guy. The world should hang him out to dry for saying stupid shite like that.

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Is China willing to risk sanctions on their economy?

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Better question is is the US willing to sanction China for anything given how integrated our economies are

Evidently, The Wagner Group has been cut off from ammunition supplies. ETA: It appears the suspicions that Russia was beginning to sideline Wagner and Prigozhin are true. Russia used up Wagner trying to take Bahkmut and now is casting them to the side. Prigozhin better avoid buildings with upper floors and windows.

There have been several videos from Wagner soldiers complaining about ammo shortages.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1626593797932199936

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Wagner once again published a very graphic video begging to be provided with ammunition. In the video, hundreds of corpses of mercenaries are in a room, placed there to show they could have been alive if help had been given.

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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1626260315166892033

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Wagner mercenaries begging the Russian Ministry of Defence for ammunition.

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Then we have this intercepted call from Prigozhin
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1627623132528779264

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Bombshell audio recording indicates Prigozhin is unable to solve any issues with ammunition for Wagner.

This morning, Prigozhin's mouthpiece channel posted a 7-minute recording of him saying that he is forced to "apologize and obey" to get ammunition.

Resorting to near-yelling, Prigozhin declares he is aware the Russian MoD has enough ammunition produced but doesn't understand where the limits are coming from. It appears that no recent attempts to raise ammo have worked and Wagner is cut off from supply completely.

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Girkin comments on the situation
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1627288340419473408

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Pretty big update from Girkin on the frontline situation, but fundamentally without positive changes for the Russian forces. Girkin points at the crisis in Wagner, and believes RF forces have just a few days left to start the offensive before the thaw.

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From Reuters
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1627695936896999425

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Russian officials are denying ammunition to Wagner fighters - group founder LINK

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Original Story: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-officials-are-denying-ammunition-wagner-fighters-group-founder-2023-02-20/?taid=63f395859ed9250001224c8c&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

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Better question is is the US willing to sanction China for anything given how integrated our economies are

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Agree, I think the concern on sanctions is at minimum equal weight presently between us and China. I’d also be concerned the rest of the world would be less cooperative in enforcing the sanctions on China than they were Russia for this very reason as well.

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The RU offensive consists of about 5-6 axes of attack focused on the Donbas. Rather than a major push along one part of the front, it is instead a series of distributed battles running north-south from Luhansk, to Bakhmut, and southern Donetsk. 2/

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Good information. This portion here gives me a good idea of what the Russians are up to with their offensive. They’ve taken a page out of World War I, specifically the strategy used by Russian general Aleksei Brusilov against the Austro-Hungarian army in his 1916 offensive.

The standard tactics at that time was to inundate a specific zone with artillery followed by a massed attack in that one zone. This usually lead to a local penetration of enemy lines. The problem though was the areas around that zone that were not hit would then send reserves to seal off the breach in the line and then throw back the attacking forces.

What Brusilov did differently, other than improved coordination between artillery and infantry plus using early “stormtrooper” tactics that the Germans would later emulate, was he hit multiple areas simultaneously with both artillery and infantry attacks using overwhelming numbers. This meant that when one of these attacks made a breakthrough, neighboring forces could not send in reinforcements to counterattack as they were already tied up. This lead to the collapse and virtual destruction of the Austro-Hungarian 4th Army and damn near knocked the Austrian-Hungarian Empire out of the war.

However, there are some fundamental key differences between Brusilov’s Offensive and what is happening today:

1. Brusilov spent months training his forces in infantry/artillery close coordination and new stormtrooper tactics. The Russian army of today is poorly trained, if trained at all.

2. The Austro-Hungarian Army in 1916 was already in shambles, rife with division, and ripe for being routed. The Ukrainian Army is united in cause, still has high morale, and is fighting for their homeland.

These differences are why the Russians are failing.

I would add one thing, today the Ukrainians have much higher situational awareness than anyone would have had in WW1.
With the US supplying battlefield intel, the Ukrainians have a good picture of what the Russians are doing before most of the Russians do.

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I am personally convinced that the weakness that was on display with our Afghanistan withdrawal led Putin to conclude we wouldn't do anything about Ukraine.

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Mehhh... Putin was certainly waiting for the right time to take the rest of Ukraine but I believe he would have pulled the trigger anyways.

Biden's wouldn't be the first presidential admin to make a tactical foreign policy error early in their first term.

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These differences are why the Russians are failing.

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Right. When everyone has to ask whether the big offensive has really started yet or not, that's not a good sign for Russia.

The results so far, after three weeks of the big offensive, going from north to south:

- Northeast of Kupiansk in the far northern part of the front, Russia has captured one village of 650 people.

- Near Kreminna, Russia has pushed Ukrainian forces west several miles towards Torske. Ukraine was previously threatening to take Kreminna, and that opportunity is gone for now, but Russia has not been able to displace Ukraine from Bilohorivka or Siversk.

- Near Bakhmut, Russia has continued to capture small towns just north of the city. Although Ukraine counterattacked to the south of Bakhmut and pushed Russia back a bit there, Ukraine is in serious danger of losing Bakhmut if Russia makes any more progress in the north, as Russia would gain control of the last way in and out of the city. Russia also continues to directly push further into the eastern part of the city.

- Attacking Avdiivka and Marinka, to the northwest and west of the city of Donetsk, Russia has no success.

- Attacking Vuhledar, Russia suffers catastrophic losses for no gain at all.


Altogether, Russia is experiencing gradual success in Bakhmut and very minor success on two other fronts. A breakthrough in any area seems unlikely, and Russia is ill-equipped to exploit one if it were to happen.

It's why I've said that this entire Russian offensive has turned into a nothingburger so far. It's only serving to further deplete Russian ammo stocks and exhaust combat power and leave their forces vulnerable when Ukraine takes all this new NATO armor that they are getting and attacks with it.

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@sentdefender Signs that state, “The Russian Border Ends Nowhere” are beginning to appear around Moscow.

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Russkiy mir on the march for Lebensraum.