re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Putin has so far avoided a lot of public distress by using volunteers, convicts and minorities.

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The fact that Putin still has not started the much-discussed second mobilization points to the fact that he is very concerned about the reaction to this move. Maybe too concerned.

I personally don't understand what he's worried about. Other than the unpleasantness in 1917, the Russian people have historically demonstrated their total lack of agency every chance they get. I mean, how many riots broke out after the much-delayed first mobilization was finally announced? Yeah, none.

Putin's continued delays of starting the second mobilization are so surprising that some commentators are suggesting that the Ukrainian Army is purposefully making the Wagner / Russian troops look good at Bahkmut to try to convince Putin that the mobilization is not needed. Giving them the rope-a-dope. That's rediculous of course, but it does show that everyone is pleasantly surprised at yet another of Putin's mistakes.

From former USAF meteorologist David Helms:



The warm winter meant that no big winter offensive was ever possible for Ukrainian forces in the northeast. Even now, the ground is not frozen nearly deep enough for tanks. Russia's offensive there now is not going to involve tanks roaming at will.

LINK

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You believe the CNN and other TV media casualty reports. And anything the Biden administration says

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My least favorite part of the anti-Ukraine/pro-Russia crowd hopping over from the PT board to discuss this war is the straw man where they assume the OT has the political makeup of Reddit.

It’s like they hear prog-speak in MSM and other social media, and instead of engaging them on their platforms they come over to the also right leaning OT and just start sky screaming here.

No one in this thread is sourcing CNN, and if you plant a post that just says “Biden sucks” it will be nothing but upvoted in the front page of the OT. You won’t find anyone on the OT arguing that there are 11 genders or that dudes should be allowed in women’s sports.

So, apparently this is a recent photo from Vuhledar. What’s the rationale behind bunching up like a school of fish. I’m certainly no tactician, but I thought they fanned out when contact with the enemy was made.

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The Italian Defense Minister has stated that they now believe that a Major Russian Offensive will begin in days instead of weeks.

This is further Evidence to me that the Offensive we are currently seeing near Kreminna is just a Holding-Operation to prevent Ukrainian Forces from moving South or North for a Russian Offensive possibly there.

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LINK

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Putin's continued delays of starting the second mobilization are so surprising that some commentators are suggesting that the Ukrainian Army is purposefully making the Wagner / Russian troops look good at Bahkmut to try to convince Putin that the mobilization is not needed. Giving them the rope-a-dope. That's rediculous of course, but it does show that everyone is pleasantly surprised at yet another of Putin's mistakes.

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Maybe he doesn't have the kit or the logistics to support that many men? Just a guess.

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It's the childish name calling and passive aggressive dismissals that really hurt their credibility off the bat for me.

For example: the "bama"user guy from a couple pages back posts the Ron Paul take. tigeraddict responds with a rational, well thought out response and bama's response to that is, "Sure Jan". Not a bit of an attempt at civil discourse. Many of them only know how to bomb throw and lack any critical thinking skills.

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Well said.

Also the article shared isn't by Ron Paul either, it's from Mike Whitney whose reporting is shaded to the point he puts out many articles like this one.

Why Putins winter offensive will prompt US entry into the war. - Global Research Dec '22

Global Research has been repeatedly identified as a significant vector for promoting disinformation.

Edit: Grammar

The problem is we don’t have many ATACMS to be able to give and Britain has even less Storm Shadows. These are extremely expensive munitions and you are right that it cannot be fired from the f-35 or f-16 but I’m not sure picking the Mirage just because it can fire a dozen or two of those systems is the right choice. The Mirage is nowhere near as agile as the f-16, especially at low altitude where the war is being fought and it can’t carry the load the f-16 can nor does it have the power in comparison. That being said, if the French and British want to do a combo of Mirage jets with the Storm Shadows as a now fix to Ukraine’s aviation issues and then maybe after the war Ukraine decides to purchase f-16s new or used and go through the proper training then that would a win-win. Regardless we will see France either put up or shutup when it comes to jets.

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First the article on us and Norway blowing up the pipeline, now this. I think we assumed this was likely the case, just feels an extra step for it to actually be reported.

Idk what’s what for sure on either, but back to back days of these two stories does feel to be a bit of an angle whether actually true or not.

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Seeing the videos and after action losses, Russia has definitely ramped up attacking. It can't be an accident that at the same time Russia has ramped up attacks that stories like this come out. Russia has always been a master of disinformation/subversive attacks. Logically it makes since to try to drive a wedge in between western allies while at the same time conducting offensive operations. even if the effect is only a delay in help, it can help the troops in the field with operations.

So we have had Belarussian troops that could try to attack from the N/NW an sever supply lines. this locks down Ukrainian troosp along that border. Then you have attacks at Bakhmut, attacks at Kreminna, locking down troops in the east/NE, Armored assaults around Vuhledar, locking down troops west on Donnesk/SE front, and now reports of de-stabilization in Moldova (SW Ukrainian border)

Ukrainian command has to hold their reserves till they can confirm the direction of the true, full on attack that it appears Russia is about to launch/just launched. the time that reserves/mobile counter forces are held in reserve the greater the change of an offensive breakthrough.


However, from the videos thus far, the assaults have only seceded in large equipment and manpower losses. question is, are these just diversions for the actual main attack.