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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/10/23 at 7:08 am to RLDSC FAN
Posted on 2/10/23 at 7:08 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Since 7 February 2023, Russian forces have likely made tactical gains in two key sectors. On the northern outskirts of the Donbas town of Bakhmut, Wagner Group forces have pushed 2-3km further west, controlling countryside near the M-03 main route into the town. Russian forces increasingly dominate the northern approaches to Bakhmut.
To the south, Russian units have made advances around the western edge of the town of Vuhledar, where they re-launched offensive operations in late January 2023.
However, Russian units have likely suffered particularly heavy casualties around Vuhledar as inexperienced units have been committed. Russian troops likely fled and abandoned at least 30 mostly intact armoured vehicles in a single incident after a failed assault.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Since 7 February 2023, Russian forces have likely made tactical gains in two key sectors. On the northern outskirts of the Donbas town of Bakhmut, Wagner Group forces have pushed 2-3km further west, controlling countryside near the M-03 main route into the town. Russian forces increasingly dominate the northern approaches to Bakhmut.
To the south, Russian units have made advances around the western edge of the town of Vuhledar, where they re-launched offensive operations in late January 2023.
However, Russian units have likely suffered particularly heavy casualties around Vuhledar as inexperienced units have been committed. Russian troops likely fled and abandoned at least 30 mostly intact armoured vehicles in a single incident after a failed assault.
0
Posted on 2/10/23 at 7:47 am to DabosDynasty
That is not good. She was very pro-western. She replaced a very pro-russian government.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 8:06 am to DabosDynasty
This has to male Romania a little uneasy no question. The Russians will attempt to take over the entirety of Moldova in order to have a closer approach to Ukraine’s western edges. It will be interesting to see what happens with this in the next few days. Moldova is a very small and poor country but it sits in a very strategic spot.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 8:18 am to DabosDynasty
Russians have figured out how to end this shite.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 9:07 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
And just a day after it’s reported Ukraine says the intercepted Russia’s plan to destabilize them.
Now apparently a Russian Kaliber missile flew over both Moldovan and Romanian airspace en route to Ukraine.
Moldova’s Pro-Western Government Collapses as Fallout From Ukraine War Worsens (WSJ Paywall)
quote:
Moldova’s pro-Western government resigned amid the worsening economic fallout from the war in neighboring Ukraine, a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia was trying to destabilize the country.
Announcing her decision Friday, Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita told a news briefing in the capital Chisinau that no one could have predicted the scale of the challenges her government has faced since the Russian invasion began nearly a year ago.
Inflation has soared in the former Soviet republic, peaking at 30% in December after Moscow’s decision to throttle natural-gas supplies, and prompting a wave of street protests. At times Moldova has suffered power cuts after Russian attacks on the electrical grid in Ukraine, while an influx of refugees has strained public services.
Security risks are growing, too. On Friday, the Moldovan and Romanian defense ministries said Russia had launched a cruise missile from a warship in the Black Sea, steering it through Moldovan airspace en route to a target in Ukraine, adding to fears that the war could spill over Ukraine’s borders.
President Maia Sandu, another leading pro-West politician, nominated her security adviser and former interior minister, Dorin Recean, to be prime minister, in what appeared to be an attempt to ensure some continuity in policy.
The day before, Mr. Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader, told a summit of European Union leaders in Brussels that Kyiv had intercepted and passed on Russian intelligence plans to undermine Moldova’s democracy and promote pro-Russian forces there.
Relations between Moldova and Russia have steadily worsened after successive Moldovan governments have tried to orient the country and its 2.5-million population more closely to Europe. Some pro-Western politicians have raised questions about Russia’s long-term intentions toward Moldova and in the breakaway region of Transnistria, the thin sliver of land along its border with Ukraine that is run by a pro-Russian administration and where Russian troops are already based.
Since coming to power with her Party of Action and Solidarity in August 2021, Ms. Gavrilita, backed by Ms. Sandu, tried to advance the country’s attempts to join the EU, which last year granted it candidate status alongside Ukraine.
“In spite of unprecedented challenges, the country was governed responsibly, with a lot of attention and dedicated work. We have stability, peace and development—where others wanted war and bankruptcy,” Ms. Sandu posted on Facebook.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 9:09 am to StormyMcMan
Russia to Cut Oil Production, Sending Prices Higher:
Moscow plans to lower output by 500,000 barrels a day in rare move outside of alliance with OPEC (WSJ Paywall)
Moscow plans to lower output by 500,000 barrels a day in rare move outside of alliance with OPEC (WSJ Paywall)
quote:
Russia said it plans to cut its oil production by around 500,000 barrels a day, or about 5%, next month, sending crude prices higher in a move that Moscow said was in response to Western sanctions.
Russia throttled back and then halted most exports of natural gas to Europe in response to sanctions imposed on Moscow after it invaded Ukraine. It has threatened to use its vast production of all sorts of commodities, including oil, to punch back against those economic restrictions.
But Friday’s move was the first in which Moscow has telegraphed a specific oil-markets response to the Western measures, raising the specter that it was now brandishing oil as a weapon in the economic war playing out between Russia and the West. Some analysts, though, said the move reflected Russia’s challenges in selling its oil amid the Western sanctions.
quote:
The Kremlin has said that it won’t comply with the price cap. Until now, though, Russia has kept oil output stable. Moscow, for years, has also carefully coordinated its oil-production policy with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the group of big, mostly Middle Eastern producers that have long throttled output to support global prices.
The Kremlin said on Friday that it had consulted with some members of the OPEC+ alliance, which includes a group of Russia-led producers. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, however, said that Moscow hadn’t consulted with anyone, calling the cut voluntary.
“Today, we are fully selling the entire volume of oil produced, however, as previously stated, we will not sell oil to those who directly or indirectly adhere to the principles of the ‘price ceiling,’ ” Mr. Novak said, quoted by state newswire TASS. “In this regard, Russia will voluntarily reduce production by 500,000 barrels a day in March. This will help restore market relations.”
Global oil prices rose after Mr. Novak’s statement, with the international benchmark Brent rising 2.5% to $86.65 a barrel early Friday. President Vladimir Putin in December banned the sale of Russia’s oil and petroleum products to countries that put a cap on their sales price, though the oil market had taken that move in its stride as Russian oil kept flowing.
quote:
“Considering that Russia was running on max capacity all the way up until now, this is finally the effect of sanctions kicking in and bringing Russian production to a new optimal level,” he said. “Russian refining needs to adapt to there being no European staple demand.”
Another consideration for Moscow is that it has relatively little storage space domestically, which means that it has few options to find a home for the oil it overproduces, Mr. Katona said.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 9:54 am to StormyMcMan
So my old buddy from Cz Ministry of Industry and trade says CEZ is suing Gazprom for 45 million for not delivering natural gas lol I helped put that deal together in 1997. I’m waiting to hear from my other buddy Sunday how they feel about getting sued? Will they send their private army to reply to the lawsuit? Lol
Posted on 2/10/23 at 10:00 am to LSU7096
quote:
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 after's Obama's color revolution.
2004, not 2014. It was Russian snipers shooting Ukrainian citizens protesting the PM not doing what they had voted for in 2014
Posted on 2/10/23 at 5:17 pm to CitizenK
Looks like Russia used a drone type boat to explode under a bridge south of Odessa (Zatoka)
Posted on 2/10/23 at 5:33 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
Russians have figured out how to end this shite.
A year later? Lol.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 6:12 pm to BayouBlitz
Here's a really good takedown of Seymour Hersh's story about the pretended US operation to blow the Nord Stream pipeline: LINK
Besides the fact that the entire story rests on one anonymous source, there are lots of factual inaccuracies and details that don't match up.
Besides the fact that the entire story rests on one anonymous source, there are lots of factual inaccuracies and details that don't match up.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 6:30 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
there are lots of factual inaccuracies and details that don't match up.
That will it stop those “wanting to believe” the story from latching on to it a proof the US was responsible.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 6:41 pm to GOP_Tiger
Saab in Sweden is ramping up their production of NLAWS to 400,000 a year. They are also doing an upgrade package to the Gripen C/D variants. It’s an absolute mystery to me why more countries don’t make orders for their air forces. As far as 4th gen fighters go it’s one of the best and it’s also relatively low maintenance as far as fighters go. You can change the engine in it in just an hour with hand tools. The F-35 really hurt their sales.
LINK
I don’t think Ukraine is too worried about being overwhelmed with an armored attack from Russia. Seems they will have not only new tanks but a shite load of ATGMs.
LINK
I don’t think Ukraine is too worried about being overwhelmed with an armored attack from Russia. Seems they will have not only new tanks but a shite load of ATGMs.
This post was edited on 2/10/23 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 2/10/23 at 7:00 pm to GOP_Tiger
From the official Twitter account of the Ukrainian Air Force @KpsZSU,
So, there is now an official request. This will certainly be much-discussed at the NATO defense minister's meeting in Brussels Tuesday and Wednesday.
From The Drive, here's an extremely interesting discussion of "how long it would take" to get Ukrainian fighter pilots trained on F-16s: LINK
quote:
Ukraine submitted a request to the Netherlands for the supply of F-16 fighters.
This was confirmed by Defense Minister Ollongren.
So, there is now an official request. This will certainly be much-discussed at the NATO defense minister's meeting in Brussels Tuesday and Wednesday.
From The Drive, here's an extremely interesting discussion of "how long it would take" to get Ukrainian fighter pilots trained on F-16s: LINK
Posted on 2/10/23 at 7:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
They know the Dutch are retiring their 2 squadrons of older f-16. As far as them being able to get f-16s, the Dutch would be the easiest route but you’ve got to first get the US’s approval and then would the dutch train them also or would that be on us? Lot of moving parts here so I don’t see any type of answer coming soon. As far as training Ukrainian fighter pilots they could learn the basics of flying it in a few days but for them to be effective using it that would need at a minimum 4-5 months. Really you would like to have double that but war time doesn’t allow it. I think we would be the ones to train their pilots if the Dutch gave their aircraft. Still 2 squadrons of f-16s will no doubt help Ukraine but it won’t win them the war.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 7:20 pm to LSUPilot07
Even though a couple f-16 squadrons most likely wouldn’t win Ukraine this war you can’t underestimate the morale boost something like that would give to Ukraine’s troops as well as their people and the Russian people.
This post was edited on 2/10/23 at 7:23 pm
Posted on 2/10/23 at 7:26 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Still 2 squadrons of f-16s will no doubt help Ukraine but it won’t win them the war.
The article I linked just above really explains why that's the case.
This is more about the long-term integration with NATO. In the short term, we need to get Ukraine the remaining MiGs that are in NATO.
I wonder, though, if something will have to get worked out with aircraft the way that it did with tanks, given the political realities of the desire of many NATO members to act in unison. Maybe an F-16 coalition gets put together, and the US ends up agreeing to help. And who knows if Mirage or Gripen jets somehow need to be given to Ukraine as well? It's not ideal for Ukraine to get several different types of NATO aircraft, but it might be politically what ends up being necessary.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 7:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
US Assistant Secretary of Defense Celeste Wallander said that Russia “has probably lost half of its main battle tank stock in combat and through Ukrainian capture.”
LINK
Think about that: we've destroyed half of Russia's tanks without the need to sacrifice the life of a single American.
Now, we just need to give Ukraine enough weapons to destroy the other half.
LINK
Think about that: we've destroyed half of Russia's tanks without the need to sacrifice the life of a single American.
Now, we just need to give Ukraine enough weapons to destroy the other half.
Posted on 2/10/23 at 8:06 pm to StormyMcMan
Russia's natural gas exports are less than 10th of a year ago.
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