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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/4/23 at 8:32 am to DabosDynasty
Posted on 2/4/23 at 8:32 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
Why are these countries now reneging on tank commitments? You mean they didn’t know the tanks they promised weren’t operational when they promised them? I don’t believe that.
It now appears that report was incorrect, as Portugal's prime minister has issued a statement that Portugal is indeed sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. He didn't say how many, but it's assumed to be the four that were agreed upon.
1
Posted on 2/4/23 at 8:44 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It now appears that report was incorrect, as Portugal's prime minister has issued a statement that Portugal is indeed sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. He didn't say how many, but it's assumed to be the four that were agreed upon.
So it seems that out of 37 Leopard 2 tanks not even four are operational. Could it be that Russian maintenance was practiced in Portugal?
Posted on 2/4/23 at 9:00 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:The Portuguese Army doesn’t require a brilliant geopolitical regional strategist in residence.
So it seems that out of 37 Leopard 2 tanks not even four are operational. Could it be that Russian maintenance was practiced in Portugal?
(Visual aid for those of you who had to go to Mississippi State):
Posted on 2/4/23 at 9:00 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
So it seems that out of 37 Leopard 2 tanks not even four are operational.
It's actually fairly common in every country besides the US. Tanks are very hard to keep combat operational; believe it or not, the more they sit in a motor pool, stuff just starts breaking.
When we had older tanks A1s that were 7 years old, it was a given that when we took them to the field that a good percentage were going to end up at the UMCP for who knows what.
The only way to keep them combat operational is to actually operate them with experienced crews that knew how to Shoot, Move and Communicate...and then do hours of crew maintenance
Posted on 2/4/23 at 10:04 am to El Segundo Guy
47K+ post....is that some kind of TD record?...if not what is?
Posted on 2/4/23 at 10:41 am to El Segundo Guy
quote:
It's actually fairly common in every country besides the US. Tanks are very hard to keep combat operational; believe it or not, the more they sit in a motor pool, stuff just starts breaking.
Spain's previous donations were all in serious need of maintenance. None were tanks.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 11:02 am to cuyahoga tiger
this isnt even a third as long as the Q thread
Posted on 2/4/23 at 11:04 am to cuyahoga tiger
quote:
47K+ post....is that some kind of TD record?...if not what is?
It may be a OT record but the Q thread was twice as long and the Whisky thread on the FDB board is longer if you consider its three parts each started the day the other was anchored. In that respect it is the longest running current thread with over 3600 pages.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 11:08 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
If and when the next Ukraine offensive kicks off I highly doubt there being more than one axis apart from diversionary plays. More would dilute their strike power as more axes means more fronts they have to fight and maintain supply lines to which plays to Russia's strengths in man/air power.
I believe the most likely axis will be in the Melitopol direction though not necessarily with the intent of capturing it immediately. The town of Tokmak to the north is a hub for both road and rail, with enough speed and momentum they could push southeast to the coast and Berdiansk quickly. This effectively cuts any land supply from the east as well as the port in Berdiansk itself to the western regions.
Where is the manpower for that going to come from? Russia is on the brink of breaking through Ukraine's strongest defense lines in the Donbas. Once Bakhmut falls, their 70km Donbas defense line that they started building up in 2014 will have a huge hole in it.
It's why for the past several months most of the Russian offensives have been directly solely in that region.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 11:15 am to Chromdome35
quote:
If Ukraine can weather the Russian offensive and retain enough combat power to counterpunch, then I think Ukraine has a really good chance of driving Russia out of all captured territory, not in Crimea.
If I'm Ukraine, I'm looking to fall back slowly while bleeding the Russians as much as possible. Once the Russians are extended and their combat power is sufficiently degraded, then counter attack.
Bakhmut leaves a huge hole in their defense lines. There's no fallback option, that's why they're not retreating.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 11:51 am to Stidham8
No surprise - imminent Russian offensive so Stidham8 has returned.
Stidham8 ITT anytime Russia starts to move more than 3 inches:
Stidham8 ITT anytime Russia starts to move more than 3 inches:
Posted on 2/4/23 at 11:56 am to Stidham8
When ever you have a slow offensive whe you are slowly giving up land. You have plenty of time to prepare fall back defensive positions and when the current from becomes untenable you fall back to the next line. I think the Bakhmut from have moved 25-30km in 5-6 months. Ukraine has sting defensive positions with elevation west of the city. They are slowly falling back while causing 2:1 or 3:1 causality rates against the Russians.
Russia is expending operational strength for little return in investment. At a point where they will lose offensive capabilities
Russia is expending operational strength for little return in investment. At a point where they will lose offensive capabilities
Posted on 2/4/23 at 12:24 pm to Stidham8
quote:
Bakhmut leaves a huge hole in their defense lines. There's no fallback option, that's why they're not retreating.
Nonsense of course. I'll do something that is probably unfair given your lack of ability to read a map. Here's a map. Behind Bakhmut the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk are surrounded by fortified defense lines. And between Bakhmut and these defensive lines the terrain has some hills that are very nice defensive locations. Ukraine has had a long time to prepare fall back positions if it becomes necessary.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 1:23 pm to Stidham8
quote:
Bakhmut leaves a huge hole in their defense lines. There's no fallback option, that's why they're not retreating.
Not at all, the backside is hills with artillery on them and well dug in defenses. MacGregor's past statements that the east was flat is a lie.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 1:39 pm to CitizenK
That is a definite possibility though if they are in the situation where any breakthrough is viewed as viable progress then it would not bode well long term for their prospects of achieving a positive outcome.
A lot of it will come down to what they have accumulated in supplies and manpower over the winter downtime versus losses from the current hotspots.
A lot of it will come down to what they have accumulated in supplies and manpower over the winter downtime versus losses from the current hotspots.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 1:40 pm to DabosDynasty
Cheers, glad to contribute something worth reading 
Posted on 2/4/23 at 1:55 pm to Stidham8
quote:
Where is the manpower for that going to come from?
That’s actually a fair point. If Ukraine is pouring manpower into defending Bakhmut and more potential Russian offensives, do they have the manpower to conduct large scale offensives?
Posted on 2/4/23 at 1:58 pm to Celery
quote:
do they have the manpower to conduct large scale offensives?
They do
Posted on 2/4/23 at 2:08 pm to LSUPilot07
I would prefer they don't take all those hits from Drago before mustering to counter, better to not get hit if possible and go for the kidney punch. Russia is definitely throwing a lot too, looking for weak spots themselves.
You are right that this will be a bloody year regardless of strategy - though I do hope that good strategy is utilised to minimise that as much as possible.
The Kerch bridge has to be on the table in my view. Ukraine has to shatter Russian troop morale and public opinion on the wars viability at home if they are to have a chance to put this to bed.
Cutting off Crimea completely and rolling the rest of Kherson up should have an impact approaching that magnitude, depending on how masochistic Russia is feeling.
You are right that this will be a bloody year regardless of strategy - though I do hope that good strategy is utilised to minimise that as much as possible.
The Kerch bridge has to be on the table in my view. Ukraine has to shatter Russian troop morale and public opinion on the wars viability at home if they are to have a chance to put this to bed.
Cutting off Crimea completely and rolling the rest of Kherson up should have an impact approaching that magnitude, depending on how masochistic Russia is feeling.
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