re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Just when I thought we could believe Russia.

"Update" on the "autonomous" Russian Marker weapons:

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Russia’s Dmitry Rogozin via his Telegram channel: “Marker UGVs have arrived in Donbas. We will start uploading target images and combat algorithms, and will install anti-tank weapons.” LINK

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Link to Twitter video of them being pulled off a rollback tow truck. In the US these trucks can carry about 7k to 10k pounds so they can not be very well armored. The upper end of that is typical for an uparmored Humvee.


Twitter

The problem with the whole being in Donbas idea is the red logo on one of the buildings is for Taganrog City Transit which is in Russia. (Birthplace Anton Chekhov BTW).

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The problem with the whole being in Donbas idea is the red logo on one of the buildings is for Taganrog City Transit which is in Russia. (Birthplace Anton Chekhov BTW).

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While not in Donbas it is halfway between Rostov on Don and the border. The highway there goes to Mariupol. It would make sense to send a "tank killer" to where the ground is flat, in Southern Occupied Ukraine.

What?!!! This is terrible news. Nine months?

Bloomberg News:

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A new ground-launched, bomb-tipped rocket to be ordered from Boeing Co. will be part of the latest package of US arms for Ukraine that will be announced Friday by the White House and Pentagon, officials said.

The long-range hybrid weapon combines two proven devices: an Air Force Small-Diameter Bomb guided by GPS satellites that’s currently in wide use and an Army rocket already being operated by Ukraine’s forces. Like some other equipment provided by the US and allies, it won’t be deployed in Ukraine anytime soon: An industry official said it would take about nine months for the first deliveries once the Air Force issues a contract.

Funding for the precision-guided rockets would come from $1.75 billion in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative expected to be announced Friday. No more than $200 million would be allocated to the Boeing weapon initially, according to one of the officials, who like others asked not to be identified in advance of the weapons announcement. 

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And $200 million? Earlier reports were that GLSDB was the bulk of the $1.75 billion in USAI that's getting announced today. That means that Ukraine is only getting a few thousand GLSDB rockets.

Incredibly disappointing. This war isn't going to end in 2023, unless Biden changes his mind and decides to give ATACMS to Ukraine. I do not understand Biden's thinking at all.

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Incredibly disappointing. This war isn't going to end in 2023, unless Biden changes his mind and decides to give ATACMS to Ukraine. I do not understand Biden's thinking at all.

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I'm not too surprised. The only way he might be more proactive is if there is a strong bipartisan push from congress.

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Russian reliance on human wave style assaults by Wagner convict fighters

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Ever see Gallipoli with Mel Gibson?

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You think that there are bad conspiracy theories on the Poliboard? Pah! Our conspiracy theories are but wee little tall tales compared to Russian conspiracy theories. Check out this one making its rounds on Russian Telegram today:

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That is a schizophrenic talking to other schizophrenics. Wow.

14 and 14
88
All these numbers add up to what?

And coincidentally today is Michael Jordan day
2/3/23. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

Don't underestimate the fact that Wagner was able to make progress in the Bakhmut area because they were using convicts in human wave assaults with the threat of immediate execution hanging over them if they fell back. There have also been reports of the Wagner troops being pumped up with drugs, but who knows if that's true or not? I think it's plausible given the we'll execute you if you fall back stance.

Will the regular Russian army do the same to its soldiers?

And prison discipline systems actually meant that convicts could be integrated into Wagner's systems fairly effectively. I don't think anyone disputes that Wagner has been a more effective fighting force that the Russian military as a whole.

It's why I am deeply skeptical (now that Wagner is largely a spent force) that Russia is going to be able to accomplish much with the upcoming "big offensive".

We really don’t have ATACMS in the number to supply Ukraine is the major issue here. I think they already would have been supplied if that were the case. I do think eventually they will get them but we are talking about very small numbers and we would demand ultimate final go/no-go on any potential target. That being said, even 50 of them could do a hell of a lot of damage to Russia’s ability to maintain supply routes. I would think if you gave Ukraine even just 5 ATACMS you would see all 5 fly directly to Kerch. 9 months sounds about right also with the GLSDB. It sucks but it is what it is. It takes time to assemble then send them to Arkansas to be loaded into HIMARS pods and then to train the Ukrainians which won’t take long as well as get them half way around the world and onto the battlefield. A lot of moving parts here. Ukraine just needs to prepare to dig in deep and hold the line for the Russian attack. If they can do that and beat their attack off then you would have a spent Russian military trying to regroup and refit right at the time when Ukraine is getting a lot these newly promised weapons from the west.