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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/3/23 at 10:19 am to No Colors
Posted on 2/3/23 at 10:19 am to No Colors
quote:
And Russia will exhaust itself capturing a town of marginal significance. Then the Ukes will retreat to higher ground and dig in again. And then counter attack along a completely different axis. We've seen this twice already.
Most discussions I’ve heard center around Kreminna, which has more strategic importance than Bahkmut.
1
Posted on 2/3/23 at 1:23 pm to AGGIES
Kreminna opens up a whole new axis for a May offensive. Bahkmut gains the oligarchs a salt mine. But doesn't allow the Russians to develop any new territory.
It's a good trade.
Meanwhile the road to Melitopol is available. As well as a thinly held area in the North.
The Ukes might realistically launch a three pronged summer offensive with 300 western armored vehicles along each of the three axis.
It's a good trade.
Meanwhile the road to Melitopol is available. As well as a thinly held area in the North.
The Ukes might realistically launch a three pronged summer offensive with 300 western armored vehicles along each of the three axis.
Posted on 2/3/23 at 1:32 pm to No Colors
quote:
The Ukes might realistically launch a three pronged summer offensive with 300 western armored vehicles along each of the three axis.
That seems unlikely.
Posted on 2/3/23 at 1:45 pm to No Colors
No Ukraine doesn’t have the forces to be able to attack on 3 axis simultaneously. They will do probing attacks along the lines and they will focus on taking out reachable ammunition and command/control stations but when the time comes they will have one objective and will commit the bulk of their forces to that attack. Right now most want Melitopol to be the choice but I still think they can gain the most ground attacking from the north again. If they could actually pull off the Melitopol move then it would be a death blow to Russia’s ability to stay in Ukraine.
This post was edited on 2/3/23 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 2/3/23 at 2:38 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
No Ukraine doesn’t have the forces to be able to attack on 3 axis simultaneously. They will do probing attacks along the lines and they will focus on taking out reachable ammunition and command/control stations but when the time comes they will have one objective and will commit the bulk of their forces to that attack. Right now most want Melitopol to be the choice but I still think they can gain the most ground attacking from the north again. If they could actually pull off the Melitopol move then it would be a death blow to Russia’s ability to stay in Ukraine.
Everyone expected the Kherson push and no one talked about the Kharkiv Thunder Run with subsequential push to Kremina and Svatore. A southern push is definite flatter ground tank maneuver friendly. Northeast presents flanking of Severdonetsk and Bakhmut. South threatens Crimea.
Not blowing bridges from Crimea was a traitorous act which allowed all the gains in the south.
This post was edited on 2/3/23 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 2/3/23 at 3:57 pm to No Colors
If and when the next Ukraine offensive kicks off I highly doubt there being more than one axis apart from diversionary plays. More would dilute their strike power as more axes means more fronts they have to fight and maintain supply lines to which plays to Russia's strengths in man/air power.
I believe the most likely axis will be in the Melitopol direction though not necessarily with the intent of capturing it immediately. The town of Tokmak to the north is a hub for both road and rail, with enough speed and momentum they could push southeast to the coast and Berdiansk quickly. This effectively cuts any land supply from the east as well as the port in Berdiansk itself to the western regions.
From there they have options (assuming they are available) to go after the Kerch Strait bridge properly, eliminating easy resupply to the west completely. Melitopol is then liberated more easily and gives them a far smaller front to hold in that direction.
This is roughly how it would progress:
Kreminna and the north are too close to Russia, if Ukraine currently had the ability to conduct air missions or long range missile strikes to disrupt supply and reinforcement routes coming from here then it could be a viable second axis once significant progress is made on the Melitopol axis.
However in my view both it and Bahkmut are being used to keep Russia focused there. Russian rhetoric has been very focused on being "under threat" and diversionary actions in the north plays into that.
The big question against all this is whether Russia has enough supplied and equipped manpower to hold off a strong thrust towards Melitopol even while focusing on the northern regions.
I am a big believer in the aphorism that armies win battles but logistics win wars and Ukraine appears to be doing much towards this with reasonable effectiveness, hopefully it pays off.
Sorry for such a TLDR, been spit-balling this at the wall for awhile. Contrary views more than welcome.
I believe the most likely axis will be in the Melitopol direction though not necessarily with the intent of capturing it immediately. The town of Tokmak to the north is a hub for both road and rail, with enough speed and momentum they could push southeast to the coast and Berdiansk quickly. This effectively cuts any land supply from the east as well as the port in Berdiansk itself to the western regions.
From there they have options (assuming they are available) to go after the Kerch Strait bridge properly, eliminating easy resupply to the west completely. Melitopol is then liberated more easily and gives them a far smaller front to hold in that direction.
This is roughly how it would progress:
Kreminna and the north are too close to Russia, if Ukraine currently had the ability to conduct air missions or long range missile strikes to disrupt supply and reinforcement routes coming from here then it could be a viable second axis once significant progress is made on the Melitopol axis.
However in my view both it and Bahkmut are being used to keep Russia focused there. Russian rhetoric has been very focused on being "under threat" and diversionary actions in the north plays into that.
The big question against all this is whether Russia has enough supplied and equipped manpower to hold off a strong thrust towards Melitopol even while focusing on the northern regions.
I am a big believer in the aphorism that armies win battles but logistics win wars and Ukraine appears to be doing much towards this with reasonable effectiveness, hopefully it pays off.
Sorry for such a TLDR, been spit-balling this at the wall for awhile. Contrary views more than welcome.
Posted on 2/3/23 at 5:41 pm to OutsideObserver
OO, fair assumption. IMO, AFU will go through the weakest spot then find, regardless of where.
This post was edited on 2/3/23 at 5:48 pm
Posted on 2/3/23 at 5:50 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
Sorry for such a TLDR
Don’t be. Need more posts like it.
Posted on 2/3/23 at 6:41 pm to CitizenK
Exactly. Ukraine will attack the weakest point of Russia’s lines wherever that may be. They are being fed intel from us and other western countries so they will know which direction is the best chance. Taking out the Kerch Bridge would be a massive blow to Russia and would cut off their southern route of supply but that is easier said than done. If they took Melitopol though they really wouldn’t even have to worry about the bridge because they would have cut off the supply routes. Russia knows this and has been fortifying the area. This coming offensive is going to determine Ukraine’s fate though. They are going to have to play defense first though as Russia will be the one to attack first it seems. If they can withstand that attack then they would have the western armored vehicles and troops that have been trained by NATO countries. It’s almost like a Rocky movie in that Ukraine will have to take some big punches but then they wear Russia down and hit them as hard as they possibly can. One thing is certain though. There will be a lot of blood spilled over the next year.
This post was edited on 2/3/23 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 2/3/23 at 7:02 pm to OutsideObserver
I think that is a very good analysis and I really like what you are doing with cutting off supplies to the Russians to the west of the offensive, and to Crimea if we allow Ukraine to have what it needs. But even if the Kerch Straight bridge remains intact Russia is going to have a hell of a time supplying their army north of the Sea of Azov over that bridge. I think that there would be a gradual collapse back to Crimea, like the pulling back from Kherson.
On Melitopol - entirely based on all the war gaming I did long ago - my main thrust would go to Berdiansk to cut off Melitopol from supply (agreed on logistics win wars), and then kill it at what ever pace makes the most sense. OK, just noticed that you have Melitopol as stage 4, after Berdiansk, so no real difference. Other than maybe that I make Berdiansk the main drive and take Tokmak later too.
Previous post had it right, though, it will depend a lot on where the Russians are vulnerable, Ukraine will be getting good intelligence on this. But if the Russians are stupid enough to leave the path south of Zap. relatively weak, then hell yeah.
"Hi Kerch Strait!" on your map - nice. For some reason I picture Tommy Wiseau saying this.
On Melitopol - entirely based on all the war gaming I did long ago - my main thrust would go to Berdiansk to cut off Melitopol from supply (agreed on logistics win wars), and then kill it at what ever pace makes the most sense. OK, just noticed that you have Melitopol as stage 4, after Berdiansk, so no real difference. Other than maybe that I make Berdiansk the main drive and take Tokmak later too.
Previous post had it right, though, it will depend a lot on where the Russians are vulnerable, Ukraine will be getting good intelligence on this. But if the Russians are stupid enough to leave the path south of Zap. relatively weak, then hell yeah.
"Hi Kerch Strait!" on your map - nice. For some reason I picture Tommy Wiseau saying this.
quote:nonsense, you won't get that on this topic aside from the occasional tard trolling.
TLDR
Posted on 2/3/23 at 7:20 pm to Tigris
Eventually Russia is going to have to bring their supply routes closer to the front lines if they want to go on the attack. That’s when you HIMARS the frick out of them. The job the Ukies are doing in Bakhmut though is incredible. They should have pulled out a week ago but they are still there being a huge pain in the arse for the Russians. They are buying time the longer they hold out.
Posted on 2/3/23 at 8:09 pm to LSUPilot07
isw update
quote:
The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS.[1] The package includes Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDM) that will increase the range of HIMARS to 151km from roughly 80km.[2] The package also includes Javelin anti-armor systems, two HAWK air defense firing units, regular HIMARS ammunition, and 120mm mortar and 155mm artillery rounds
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his campaign against certain opposition voices in the domestic information space while continuing to platform critical nationalist milbloggers. Moscow authorities announced the arrest of Alexander Gusov, the alleged administrator of the Novyi Vek and VChK-OGPU Telegram channels, on charges of extortion on February 3
quote:
Russian officials continue to perpetuate the information operation that the war in Ukraine is a direct threat to Russian security through legislative manipulations. Bryansk and Kursk oblasts announced on February 3 that they are extending the “yellow” level of terrorist threat indefinitely due to a need for enhanced measures to protect and defend Russian territory.[10] Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on January 31 that simplifies the process of implementing terror threat alerts in Russia and allows Russian regions classed as ”yellow level” of terrorist threat per Putin’s October 19 martial law decree to indefinitely introduce an elevated ”terrorist level.”[11] Bryansk and Kursk oblast officials will likely use this new ”terror level” regime to escalate law enforcement measures in order to crack down on domestic dissent, partially to present the war in Ukraine as directly threatening Russian domestic security in order to generate continued support for Russian operations.
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his campaign against certain opposition voices in the domestic information space while continuing to platform critical nationalist milbloggers.
Russian officials continue to perpetuate the information operation that the war in Ukraine is a direct threat to Russian security through legislative manipulations.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line with an intensified pace of operations near Kreminna.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut.
Russian forces did not make any confirmed territorial gains in southern Ukraine.
Western officials reportedly estimate that Russian forces have sustained almost 200,000 casualties in the war in Ukraine.
Russian officials continue to rely on government-organized non-governmental organizations operating in occupied territories to create the veneer of grass roots support for Russian occupation.
Posted on 2/3/23 at 8:25 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
t takes time to assemble then send them to Arkansas to be loaded into HIMARS pods and then to train the Ukrainians which won’t take long as well as get them half way around the world and onto the battlefield. A lot of moving parts here.
The new word is that Boeing/Saab have developed a proprietary launcher for GLSDB. That makes sense, as there may be nations who would like to purchase this weapon without the need to also purchase HIMARS launchers.
At present, the software necessary for a HIMARS unit to fire GLSDB hasn't been written, and it may require new hardware.
Consequently, the first GLSDB rockets will go to Ukraine with the Boeing/Saab launcher.
Eventually, Boeing/Saab and Lockheed Martin will get everything sorted out so that HIMARS units can fire GLSDB, but I don't know what that timetable would be.
Posted on 2/3/23 at 9:24 pm to Burhead
quote:
Germany has approved an export license for 88 Leopard 1 tanks for Ukraine. They are also in talks with Qatar to buy back 15 Gepard AA guns as well. Only problem is sourcing ammo the Leopard 1s use a 105mm gun.
Denmark is buying another 20 Leopard 1A5s to refurbish and send as well.
Posted on 2/3/23 at 10:36 pm to Burhead
Ukraine's old T-62's knocked Russian T-72 and T-80 dick into the dirt.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:51 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 4 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The Russian military has formally integrated occupied areas of Ukraine into its Southern Military District. On 03 February 2023, Russia state news agency TASS reported that the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics and the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are being placed under the three-star command which is headquartered in Rostov-on-Don.
This follows Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's January announcement that military expansion would include the establishment of 'self-sufficient force groupings' in Ukraine.
The move highlights that the Russian military likely aspires to integrate newly occupied territory into a long-term strategic posture. However, it is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the campaign - Russia currently deploys forces from across all of Russia's military districts, commanded by an ad hoc deployed headquarters.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 4 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The Russian military has formally integrated occupied areas of Ukraine into its Southern Military District. On 03 February 2023, Russia state news agency TASS reported that the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics and the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are being placed under the three-star command which is headquartered in Rostov-on-Don.
This follows Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's January announcement that military expansion would include the establishment of 'self-sufficient force groupings' in Ukraine.
The move highlights that the Russian military likely aspires to integrate newly occupied territory into a long-term strategic posture. However, it is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the campaign - Russia currently deploys forces from across all of Russia's military districts, commanded by an ad hoc deployed headquarters.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:54 am to CitizenK
quote:
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has announced that due to their “Trust and Co-Operation” with the Russian Federation increasing they are now prepared to engage in a Strategic Partnership between the two Countries.
LINK
quote:
Russia is sending troops to Mariupol and the surrounding area - currently their number has exceeded 30,000, which may mean preparations for an offensive. This was reported by Petro Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.
According to him, over the past week, the Russian military corps in the region has increased by 10,000-15,000 - they are mostly housed in villages near Mariupol. At the same time, a unit of "Kadyrovtsi", numbering 2-3 thousand soldiers, entered one of the seaside villages.
LINK
quote:
Vuhledar???? 04.02 - 11:00 AM update:
1/4 No significant changes for the past 24 hours. The enemy continues to increase the number of artillery and infantry in the area. It seems that the enemy is preparing for slow grinding tactics which we have previously seen near Bakhmut.
Finally I got some time to share a few images, which can shed some light on what's going on near Vuhledar. As I previously indicated in my reports, the heaviest combats happened in the areas of southern and eastern dachi.
Fresh scorch marks on fresh snow can visually confirm that the enemy continues attempts to establish control over the dachi's area by covering assaulting infantry groups with heavy artillery fire.
You can also see how the enemy attempted to outflank Vuhledar from the East, but sustained losses and had to retreat to Mykil's'ke.
Overall the situation remains dangerous due to increasing numbers of enemy infantry and artillery.
LINK
quote:
Portugal’s PM António Costa has decided to walk back on the decision to transfer 4 Leopard 2A6 tanks to Ukraine according the newspaper Sol.
The majority of Portugal’s 37 Leopard tanks aren’t operational due to a lack of spare parts.
Portugal also doesn’t have any ammunition.
LINK
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:58 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Eventually, Boeing/Saab and Lockheed Martin will get everything sorted out so that HIMARS units can fire GLSDB
I wonder what happened to the GMLRS-ER. Seems like it was in final testing months ago and has similar, if not better, range.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 7:02 am to StormyMcMan
I want to recommend this story in the Kyiv Independent about the very few civilians left in Bakhmut and why they are still there. Spoiler: most of them are pro-Russia.
Posted on 2/4/23 at 7:46 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
quote:The Chinese Foreign Ministry has announced that due to their “Trust and Co-Operation” with the Russian Federation increasing they are now prepared to engage in a Strategic Partnership between the two Countries.
Interesting
quote:
quote: Portugal’s PM António Costa has decided to walk back on the decision to transfer 4 Leopard 2A6 tanks to Ukraine according the newspaper Sol. The majority of Portugal’s 37 Leopard tanks aren’t operational due to a lack of spare parts. Portugal also doesn’t have any ammunition.
Why are these countries now reneging on tank commitments? You mean they didn’t know the tanks they promised weren’t operational when they promised them? I don’t believe that.
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