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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:21 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:21 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
Russia will need a shitload of equipped and trained troops, Hundreds of tanks, and thousands of armored vehicles and trucks to invade Ukraine via Belarus. Then they would have to penetrate further than they have yet to do anywhere else in this war. The terrain in that part of Ukraine is great for defenders and terrible for attackers as the Russians will have to funnel down the road network where they will be easy pickings for a couple of guys with a Javelin.
Russia doesn't have the troops, the equipment, ammo, the logistics network, or any element of surprise. I don't see it happening.
The furthest they might get would be the highway that runs along the northern border with Belarus which is about 60 km south of the border. I highlighted in Red all of the main roads that run north/south between Belarus and Ukraine.
Russia doesn't have the troops, the equipment, ammo, the logistics network, or any element of surprise. I don't see it happening.
The furthest they might get would be the highway that runs along the northern border with Belarus which is about 60 km south of the border. I highlighted in Red all of the main roads that run north/south between Belarus and Ukraine.
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Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:21 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
The Russian bots are active today and the poliboard is lapping it up.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:25 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
Just wondering what will happen if the Russians try to shut down the logistics line by attacking from Belarus
1) to get to Lviv they would need to advance more the 2 almost 2.5x the distance of their largest advance since feb ‘22
2) terrain in NW heavily favors defenders
3) lots of swampy area forces advance along few roads
4) extremely long supply line from Russia through Belarus then south in the NEW Ukraine
5) Poland would not like seeing Russian troops that close to its border….. and May take direct action…. At least Russia would need to protect that flank just in case.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:34 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
5) Poland would not like seeing Russian troops that close to its border….. and May take direct action…. At least Russia would need to protect that flank just in case.
This is most interesting to me. While the traditional Western European countries like Germany may dither in making decisions about supporting Ukraine, I suspect the Polish may be inclined to join the fray. They know that Russia can never gain a toehold close to Poland. And yet they are a NATO country and likely are supposed to refrain from unilateral action.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:38 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Despite how ridiculous and compromised Germany looks today,
I’m out of the loop. What did Germany do?
Refused to send Leopards to Ukraine and refused to give permission to allow other countries like Poland to send them either, but also said that it would not sue or take any retaliatory action if Poland or any other country said f**k it and sent Leopards to Ukraine.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:41 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
We should have had C5s landing and unloading M1s in Germany, Poland, and the other countries that are giving Leopards to Ukraine.
I've listened to the "experts" say the M1 is too difficult to maintain for the Ukrainians.
M1s would be going to Finland, Poland, etc to replace the Leopards being sent to Ukraine not being sent to Ukraine themselves. Also those experts are full of shite. A country at war especially a country at war with the mechanical know how of Ukraine can keep any machine up and running. Where there is a will there is a way.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:52 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
Just wondering what will happen if the Russians try to shut down the logistics line by attacking from Belarus? I have read rumblings that they will work to shut down the material transiting into the country.
As others have said is highly unlikely the Russia is able to make it to Lviv to disrupt the supply lines given the military capability Russia has shown the last 10 months. However, if Russia proves us wrong and actually does make it to Lviv. The movement of equipment would be decreased, but there is still the rail connection that runs along the Black Sea Coast and connects Odessa to Romania. Of course getting supplies to Ukraine would become pointless at that point. If Russia is able to demonstrate the military strength and skill need to pull off an invasion and capture Lviv then the Ukrainians have lost and had better cut their losses and start kissing the arse of the midget in the kremlin.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:54 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Poland has formed a new infantry division along the Belarus border.
However those M1 tanks were headed to the southeast part of Poland not the northeast part of Poland.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 5:33 pm to WeeWee
quote:
This stunt by Germany not only delayed aid to Ukraine but it also made NATO look divided and weak.
I get that but the public of the Free World needs to know that nary a country in defense treaty with Russia is sending anything to Russia other than Belarus returing some Russian arms/ammo. The Russian public will never hear the truth anyway.
We have seen for a few decades how German banks loaned money around the EU with the caveat that the money has to buy German goods and services, not actually help spur business in the nations which are borrowing.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 5:40 pm to WeeWee
quote:
M1s would be going to Finland, Poland, etc to replace the Leopards being sent to Ukraine not being sent to Ukraine themselves. Also those experts are full of shite. A country at war especially a country at war with the mechanical know how of Ukraine can keep any machine up and running. Where there is a will there is a way.
From small to large gas turbines using diesel, JP or natural gas, are quite common in the industrial and oil/gas pipeline world for decades now.
To think that Ukraine doesn't have the capability to maintain such is just plain ignorance.
quote:
LINK
Posted on 1/20/23 at 6:00 pm to GOP_Tiger
Even if they just make a million shells it’s still more than our own production capacity. This is the perfect time to take on private contracts in the U.S. to produce shells not just to go to Ukraine but to restock our own reserves. Right now we make around 14,000 155 mm shells a month but will be up to 20,000 a month by spring 2024. Even then that’s just 240,000 shells a year. If the U.S. is truly going to commit to this for the long haul that are going to have to get more production as will NATO countries. We got away from conventional artillery but this war has proven that no matter how advanced war becomes you are still going to have traditional artillery. BAE is in talk to start their production line back up to make the M777. They have been out of production since 2003.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 6:03 pm to WeeWee
Even without the Abrams yet you can bet our C-17 and C-5 fleets are very busy right now with a shitload of landings in Poland.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 6:09 pm to CitizenK
quote:
To think that Ukraine doesn't have the capability to maintain such is just plain ignorance.
I don't think anyone is saying that Ukraine can't maintain M1 tanks. I think that the argument is that Ukraine is already trying to set up logistics chains for a hundred different weapons systems. And the US is setting up those chains right now with Bradleys and Strykers, along with trying to train Ukrainians to operate and maintain them. The complexity of the Abrams, combined with the extra logistical problems fueling a vehicle that needs three gallons of gas per mile, mean that we need to wait a bit on the Abrams.
I can certainly appreciate that argument. What I would say in response is that the US could've announced today that we will deliver 150 Abrams, but that the delivery won't take place until May. We could've made sure that we sent Russia a message. For some reason, we didn't want to do that.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 6:21 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Even if they just make a million shells it’s still more than our own production capacity. This is the perfect time to take on private contracts in the U.S. to produce shells not just to go to Ukraine but to restock our own reserves. Right now we make around 14,000 155 mm shells a month but will be up to 20,000 a month by spring 2024. Even then that’s just 240,000 shells a year. If the U.S. is truly going to commit to this for the long haul that are going to have to get more production as will NATO countries.
I think you missed this last month:
quote:
“Funding is already in place, contracts are underway to basically triple 155mm production,” Bush told Defense News on the sidelines of the Reagan National Defense Forum. “There’s funding on the Hill, in the supplemental, to more than double that again. That would take a period of years.
“We want to be able to build our stocks not just where we started the war, but higher. We’re posturing for a pretty ? over a period of three years ? a dramatic increase in conventional artillery ammunition production.”
Army Secretary Christine Wormuth separately told reporters that the U.S. will go from making 14,000 155mm shells each month to 20,000 by the spring and 40,000 by 2025.
quote:
BAE is in talk to start their production line back up to make the M777. They have been out of production since 2003.
Oh, I hope not. Those have been much more vulnerable to Russian attacks than SPGs. We do not need to make more towed artillery.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 6:41 pm to LSUPilot07
We have millions of rounds of cluster 155mm shells scheduled for disposal due Obama directive. Over 2 million rounds of 155mm cluster munitions for disposal this year or 93,000+ tons.
This post was edited on 1/20/23 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 1/20/23 at 6:58 pm to GOP_Tiger
I agree the way to go is SPG like the M109 or the Archer but they are also much more expensive than towed artillery. I think they will always have a place in war but you are correct that mobility is the key.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 7:13 pm to GOP_Tiger
Now I want to see armoured hobbits on armoured ponies charging the orcs.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 7:30 pm to GOP_Tiger
Cyprus is ready to hand over the 82 T-80U tanks it has but Greece has to give them some of their Leopard 2A4s that they have in storage. Greece has 353 Leopard 2s in their army so they could do this if they wanted to. It would be another armored brigade of Soviet tanks that Ukraine can fight with right now. Still not going to hold my breath though. Politics slow everything to a snail’s pace.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 1/20/23 at 7:31 pm
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