re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Go back to the previous page from his post and read forward

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It appears that the Leopards are coming but not from Germany.


Thats the compromise. No Leopards from Germany.

Poland told Germany yesterday they were giving their Leopards to Ukraine regardless of Germany's position.

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1. The reason that the Germans are not wanting to send Leopards is due to their lack of defense spending they only had 95 Leopard2s that were combat ready in 2017. Germany has not invested in its Leopards since 2017 so the # of combat ready German Leopards is probably less than 95. Germany probably does not have 22 working Leopards to send to Ukraine.

2. Hopefully more European countries follow Poland's lead and send MBTs because if 14 Leopards and 12 Challenger2s is not going to make a big difference on the battlefield.

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The Germans are the best ally Putin has.

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frickin' Germany man. They start two world wars, gas six million Jews and then when it comes time to do the right thing, they chicken out.

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Curious video from the Zaporizhzia direction where an enemy group of around 50 infantry and 3 tanks are being destroyed by Ukrainian artillery fire. At the end, a quick interception is available where a soldier is yelling, wondering about evacuation.

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^ Russian combined arms warfare in a nutshell.

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You are right. I really struggle to grasp how poor the Russian military is.

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That meme is almost a year old but it is still true. Russian forces are still stupid and Ukraine is still lucky that they are stupid.

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Jesus Christ you guys act as if the Ukrainians don’t have any tanks, they do.
Brads and Strykers are an immediate upgrade. And more tanks are coming.

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That's the thing: there's a huge amount of stuff that was promised to Ukraine back in the fall that isn't there yet.

For example, on November 4th, the US and the Netherlands jointly agreed to take 90 Czech T-72s and pay for them to be upgraded to the very latest optics, electronics, and reactive armor. We said that they would be the best tanks on the battlefield. And that's great, but the Czech company doing those upgrades is working as fast as it can, but had only delivered 20 of them as of two weeks ago.

So, Ukraine is still getting more tanks.

But, again, the larger point -- do y'all remember this big US package announced on September 28th?

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- 18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition;
- 150 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
- 150 Tactical Vehicles to tow weapons;
- 40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment;
- Two radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems;
- 20 multi-mission radars;
- Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems;
- Tactical secure communications systems, surveillance systems, and optics;
- Explosive ordnance disposal equipment;
- Body armor and other field equipment;

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That was all stuff that we announced that we were buying new for Ukraine and expected deliveries would take 6-24 months, depending on which stuff it was and how long it takes to make. Which means that it's likely that none of that has been delivered yet.

Just take a look at Oryx's Fact Sheet on German Aid to Ukraine. Germany has given Ukraine a lot of stuff, but the following is all the stuff that the Germans have promised to Ukraine, but have not yet delivered. The Marders, the Patriot battery, and the 7 Gepards were all just announced recently, but the rest of this stuff goes back to the fall.

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Surface-To-Air Missile (SAM) Systems (3 Systems And 1 Battery)
3 IRIS-T SLM* System (Three Launchers Per System) [To be delivered]
1 Patriot Battery [To be delivered]

Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns (7)
7 Gepards*

Self-Propelled Artillery (134)
100 155mm PzH 2000s [To be delivered] (Purchased by Ukraine from Krauss-Maffei Wegmann through the security capacity building fund)
18 155mm RCH 155s [To be delivered] (Purchased by Ukraine from Krauss-Maffei Wegmann through the security capacity building fund)
16 155mm ShKH Zuzana 2s [To be delivered] (Joint purchase by Germany, Norway and Denmark from Slovakia)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
40 Marders [To be delivered in March 2023]

Anti-Tank Weapons (5000)
Missing flag.png 5.032 Man-Portable Anti-Tank Weapons [To be delivered]

Anti-Drone Systems (90)
Missing flag.png 90 Drone Detection Systems* [To be delivered] (Including 20 Frequency Range Extension Devices)

Radars, Jammers And Reconnaissance Systems (27)
2 TRML-4Ds [To be delivered in early 2023]
Missing flag.png 8 Mobile Ground Surveillance Radars And Thermal Imaging Cameras* [To Be Delivered]
Missing flag.png 12 Communications Electronic Scanner/Jammer Systems* [To Be Delivered]
Missing flag.png 5 Mobile Reconnaissance Systems [To Be Delivered]

Surveillance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (114)
Missing flag.png 114 Reconnaissance UAVs* [To Be Delivered]

Unmanned Vehicles (7)
7 THeMIS UGVs For Casualty Evacuation [Second quarter of 2023]

Engineering Vehicles And Equipment (77)
5 Pionierpanzer 2A1 Dachs Armoured Engineering Vehicles (AEVs) [To Be Delivered]
13 Brückenlegepanzer Biber Bridgelayers [To Be Delivered]
42 Mine Clearing Tanks* [To Be Delivered]
10 Protected Mine Clearing Systems* [To Be Delivered]
4 Remote Controlled And Protected Mine Clearing Systems* [To Be Delivered]
3 Heavy And Medium Bridge Systems* [To Be Delivered]

Vehicles (747)
307 Border Protection Vehicles [To Be Delivered]
14 HX81 Heavy Equipment and Tank Transporters* [To Be Delivered]
18 Heavy Duty 8x8 Trucks [To Be Delivered]
7 Heavy Duty 8x6 Trucks* [To Be Delivered]
90 Heavy Duty Trailer Trucks* [To Be Delivered]
10 Protected Vehicles* [To Be Delivered]
2 Pickup Trucks* [To Be Delivered]
200 Trucks* [To Be Delivered]
2 Tractors Along With 4 Trailers [To Be Delivered]

Ammunition
Additional Missiles For The IRIS-T SLM SAM System* [To Be Delivered]
255 Volcano Guided Artillery Rounds For PzH 2000 SPG [To Be Delivered]
1100 155mm Artillery Rounds For PzH 2000 SPG* [To Be Delivered]
156.000 Rounds Of 40mm Ammunition For Automatic Grenade Launchers [To Be Delivered]

Miscellaneous Equipment
1 Vehicle Decontamination System [To Be Delivered]
26 Interchangeable Loading System (For Trucks) [To Be Delivered]
2 Hangar Tents* [To Be Delivered]
100.000 First Aid Kits [To Be Delivered]
130 Heating Systems [To Be Delivered]
50 Field Heaters [To Be Delivered]
Oil Heaters [To Be Delivered]
Military Winter Clothing [To Be Delivered]
450+ Generators [To Be Delivered]
Meal, Ready-to-Eat (MREs) [To Be Delivered]

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Now, perhaps some of that stuff has been delivered and the German government hasn't announced it, but most of it has not, as you can see on the German government's webpage.

Other countries also have lots of stuff that's been promised to Ukraine but not yet delivered. The point I'm trying to make is related to the question that I've seen asked several times lately by media: "Is the aid promised at this Ramstein conference enough?"

That's the wrong question, because it ignores how much more stuff Ukraine has coming. And all that stuff has to be integrated into supply chains for parts and ammo, Ukrainians need to be trained to use it, etc.

That's I keep saying that everything does not depend on a Ukrainian spring offensive. Ukraine will have a much, much stronger military in 2024 than it will in March.

In the meantime, the Russians are exhausting ammo stocks and losing heavy weaponry much faster than they can replace it.

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Hopefully more European countries follow Poland's lead


They will, but Poland has the largest functioning inventory and its the closest logistically. They also have all the recovery vehicles and specialized maintenance facilities, and they want to help.

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14 Leopards and 12 Challenger2s is not going to make a big difference on the battlefield.

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Despite how ridiculous and compromised Germany looks today, I think it's important to keep a few things in mind:

1) On Leopards, Germany said "not right now." Not, "no." In fact, they basically said "yes, but not today." They will end up giving some Leopards.

2) Germany explicitly said that partner nations could start training Ukrainians how to operate and maintain Leopards. That needs to be done anyway. The end result may be that there's no functional delay in actually sending the tanks. Poland, Finland, and other countries can actually start training Ukrainian tank crews now. Potential donor countries can figure out which tanks need maintenance and get them ready. And in several weeks, when Germany has figured out which end is which, everyone announces a total of 200 or so Leopards to Ukraine, and those tanks are ready to go in time for a spring offensive.

3) The British army's plan had been to upgrade most of their Challenger 2 tanks to the new Challenger 3, but they had been planning to retire 57 Challenger 2 tanks. They are sending 14 to Ukraine right now, but I believe that this is just the first tranche, so that training and logistics can get worked out. They will likely send more, because they can obviously spare more tanks that they were going to retire anyway.



Edit: The new German defense minister directly

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instructed the German army to “review” how many and which Leopards it could send, to be able “to act quickly” once decision comes (could take a week or two).

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Like I said above, the discussion today likely means no functional delay in getting Leopards on the battlefield.

The music for these vids sounds like something out of Hearts of Iron 4.

I want to revisit the topic of Russian ammo production, which we extensively discussed on December 30th, when we talked about Perun's video on the topic.

These were my notes from Perun's video about Russian production:

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- The high-end estimate for Russian shell production (of all types) is 1.7 million last year, scaling up to 3.4 million this year.

- At it's peak this past summer during its capture of some of the Donbas, Russia was using some 60,000 shells per day.

- Though they are using less now, 3.4 million shells per year works out to ~9000 per day, which means that Russia likely cannot continue to fight the way that it has been fighting. It's not going to run out of shells, but it might have to scale back significantly.

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I bring this back up because one of the more interesting things that happened today at Ramstein was Sec. Austin saying in his introductory remarks (which the press were allowed to hear):

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“Russia is running out of ammunition and is suffering significant battle losses.”

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Twitter account @secretsqrl123 is run by a former US Army tanker. He's usually reliable and has 32k followers, because he usually doesn't tweet nonsense. He's tweeted recently that Russia's one plant that produces artillery shells actually had a fire last year that damaged a production line, and that the sanctions have meant that they can't get replacement parts, and that Russia is actually producing shells at a rate of only 1 million per year.

Now, he's not revealing his sources, and that's probably because they are likely some sketchy Telegram channels, but it wouldn't surprise me if it were true. If so, that would mean that Russia will soon only be able to fire 3000 shells per day.

Sec. Austin's statement suggests that we are approaching a new phase of the war.

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Despite how ridiculous and compromised Germany looks today,

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I’m out of the loop. What did Germany do?