re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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my biggest takeaway from this war is how its randomly now kyiv and pronounced "keyv"

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LINK

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. In the next few days I believe the operation will end. Why do I believe so? It is because, without going into detail, I have information that the enemy has already occupied with fresh forces the second line of defence from Seversk to Bakhmut, while our forces are practically at the limit of their offensive capabilities due both to losses and extreme exhaustion of LDPR forces. [

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Russia isn’t gunning for the entiredq

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The separatists controlled 50% of Luhansk and 7,000 sq Km of Donetsk Oblast, but controlled the 3 of the 4 largest cities in that Oblast before 2022. So again, why did the Ukrainian GDP grow, despite this loss?

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Since I know you likely won't answer this question, the major administrative subdivisions by gross regional product in Ukraine are Kyiv, which produces 30 billion euros, Dnipropetrovsk, which produces 12.4 billion euros, Kharkiv, which produces 7.8 billion euros, Kyiv Oblast, which produces 6.9 billion euros, and Lyiv Oblast, which produces 6.8 billion euros. Kyiv the city is not part of the Kyiv Oblast. Donestk comes in at 6th, with a GRP of 6.5 billion euros. So it seems like all your hopes and dreams of a 'finished' Ukraine rest on a blockade? Because the key economic driver of Ukraine is Kyiv, not the Donbass, as resource-rich as it is. And Kyiv itself is more likely to be connected to Europe at large, not less likely, after this war, which should increase foreign direct investment, especially if Ukraine joins the EU.

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Even though nearly 40% of their economy resides in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast? You aren't making sense.

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Ukraine's economy cannot handle being without Donbas, the South, and the coastline. The coal reserves and manufacturing in Donbas contribute significantly to the economy.

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The small areas they lost in 2014 shrunk the GDP from 180 billion to 90 billion. It slowly climbed back but only to 110 billion.

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Putin knows the West will grow tired of propping them up when our own economy is entering into a recession. If he chooses to have an operational pause another invasion will be inevitable against a much weaker, smaller, and broken Ukraine in the not too distant future.

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Putin knows the West will grow tired of propping them up when our own economy is entering into a recession. If he chooses to have an operational pause another invasion will be inevitable against a much weaker, smaller, and broken Ukraine in the not too distant future.

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1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 108-123. Mid-June has seen the Russian Armed Forces maintain their operational momentum and make important gains in the Donbas while the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to press their counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast

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Kharkiv OD. The situation here remains tenuous for both sides as heavy losses, coupled with priority of effort to the Izium-Lysychansk area have reduced the combat capacity & capability of units operating in Kharkiv. The RAF will continue attempts to advance closer to Kharkiv.

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Ternova-Rubizhne AO. This area is the most critical portion of the Kharkiv OD for Russian & Ukrainian forces. Opposing force ratios will likely remain at 1:1 for quite some time. The RAF will likely continue their effort to regain control of Staryi Saltiv & the T2104 Hwy.

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5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. The tactical situation in the Popasna Salient & south of Lysychansk has deteriorated for the UAF. Russian forces have managed to advance north toward Lysychansk along the Siverskyi Donets. These successes have forced the UAF to abandon Severodoentsk.

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The UAF is in the process of consolidating and establishing new defensive positions in Lysychansk, but Russian forces are attempting to press their advantage along the T1303 Hwy and seize the heights in southern Lysychansk before the UAF fortify them.

If the RAF can keep the UAF units in Lysychansk off balance and threaten their encirclement it is likely the Ukrainian General Staff will opt to withdraw from Luhansk to establish a new defensive line on the heights running along the west side of the T0513 Hwy.

NW of Slovyansk Russian forces have been making slow but steady advances on a broad front roughly from Sosnove to Kuruika. Although UAF defensive positions are holding against successive assaults, pressure from the east could weaken this line.

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Zaporizhzhia OD. Activity in the OD generally remains localized attacks to improve tactical positioning, however, the UAF has conducted a sizeable counterattack south of Vuledar that has liberated several towns and shifted the line of contact at least 10km further south.

Partisan activity in this OD is steadily increasing with attacks common in Melitopol targeting Russian occupation administrators. Partisan activity is also targeting Russian supply convoys (rail & road) moving equipment through Melitopol to the Vasylivka & Polohy areas.

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Odesa-Kherson OD. The Ukrainian counteroffensive into northern Kherson has made gradual success over the last couple of weeks. Around Kherson City, the RAF has been pushed back from its first line of defenses, with the area between Blahodatne & Kyselivka heavily contested.

The UAF retains a window of opportunity in Kherson to seize key points that will make the RAFs long term defense of Kherson problematic. These gains must be made before Russian EW, close air, & indirect fire support prevent a further penetration of secondary RAF defenses.

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Black Sea OTMO. The Russian blockade of Odesa continues but is coming under increased UAF air & UCAV pressure. Improved UAF strike capabilities threaten to degrade the Russian Black Seas Fleet ability to interdict shipping in and out of Odesa.

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