re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

All "crude oil" is not the same. Venezuela's is like Canada's except pumped from the ground using steam because it is like hard tar at room temperature. Shell's refinery in Curacao has a giant asphalt lake as it just threw all the bottoms from the crude unit into it. Lago Oil and Transport (the name of the Exxon subsidiary in Aruba) used bottoms to make asphalt (which is actually the "tar" as opposed to asphalt concrete which most refer to as asphalt pavement.

Venezuela does have upgraders which function similar to "tar sands refineries" in Canada which were used for export to nations with less complex refineries like those in Europe. Bringing in Russia's Rosneft hasn't helped PDVSA in maintaining those to be reliable. Mobil had built a new upgrader about 20 years ago, but Venezuela took it over and turned it to unworkable. It's target market was Europe which has far less complex refineries than the USA and cannot take the very heavy crude (like tar) as is. PDVSA is basically unreliable to even produce its very heavy crude oil from the ground. So, they brought in Russia's Rosneft which has increased production capacity but not even to half of what US companies were able to do. It would be a drop in the bucket of what is needed in the USA. It would definitely benefit Lyndell Basell's Houston Refining which is configured 100% for very heavy and heavy crude at 200,000 BPD. Imports would help the Saudi owned refinery in Port Arthur with its 325,000 BPD expansion of a decade ago specifically designed for heavy crude that was to be received via Keystone XL.

I could go on and on but it would go over the heads of most since the vast majority of the public, even "oil men" don't know anything about grades of crude oil and refining applications. A few years ago, I asked a friend (RIP this year at 90) who had interests in oilfields around the world, never as an operator. All he knew is that he could sell oil to buyers and not a thought to grade and refining processes. The only offshore oil he was ever involved in was a couple of fields in the North Sea beginning in the early 70's. Marathon offered its major field in Libya to him after Daffy Duck was toppled. So he was definitely a player.

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We are now discussing the statement of the Prime Minister of Scotland on holding a referendum on secession from England.
Full analogy with Ukraine-Russia, similarity with England-Scotland.
For example to support the freedom of choice of the Scots for freedom and independence! To supply the freedom-loving Scottish people with guns and missiles so that they can free themselves from the centuries-old oppression of England and blah blah blah, what Zelensky is advised to say there.
In my opinion, an interesting idea.

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Except you know UK would honor the vote and not invade Scotland to keep the UK together unlike certain other countries who don't honor votes nor treaties (cough cough Russia cough cough)

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Except you know UK would honor the vote and not invade Scotland to keep the UK together unlike certain other countries who don't honor votes nor treaties (cough cough Russia cough cough)

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Yet this never happened

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The concessions were resolved with relatively short talks. Serious issues generally require far more intensive talks. This was Turkey just trying to get something, or the appearance of having gotten something, which can be important domestically.

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I would say this supports your above comment and also works to be mutually beneficial:

Daniel Ammann - The King of Oil, Jack Farchy - The World for Sale, Jonathan Charles Kingsman - Commodity Conversations, Daniel Yergin - The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, Marco Papic - Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

These things don't happen in the fields or third-world shitholes. They happen in posh glass towers and specific Cantons in Switzerland, and it transcends "countries".

FACT SHEET - U.S. Defense Contributions to Europe
June 29, 2022

Enumerates the contributions to date and announces the following future commitments.

In Poland, we will permanently forward station the V Corps Headquarters Forward Command Post, an Army garrison headquarters, and a field support battalion.

In Romania, the United States will position a rotational Brigade Combat Team, thus maintaining an additional brigade on the eastern flank compared to our January 2022 posture.

In the Baltic region, the United States will enhance its rotational deployments – which include armored, aviation, air defense, and special operations forces – to reinforce Baltic security, enhance interoperability, and demonstrate the flexibility and combat readiness of U.S. forces.

In Spain, the United States is working with the government to increase the number of destroyers stationed at Rota from four to six.

In the United Kingdom, we are increasing our Fifth Generation Fighter presence and ability to support Allies across Europe by forward-stationing two squadrons of F-35s at RAF Lakenheath.

In Germany, the United States will forward station an air defense artillery brigade headquarters, a short-range air defense battalion, a combat sustainment support battalion headquarters, and an engineer brigade headquarters – approximately 625 military personnel in total.

In Italy, the United States will forward station a short-range air defense battery – totaling approximately 65 personnel.

All of these combat-credible forces and enablers are supported by significant investments in the long-term U.S. presence in Europe.

DoD Press Release

And random other tweets

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Syria has decided to recognize the independence of the so-called "LNR" and "DNR", - says the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country.

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In Moscow, a large-scale fire on Kashyrskoye Highway: first a garbage dump caught fire, then the fire spread to a warehouse with tires, - mass media

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Russian hackers attacked several Norwegian government websites and services, calling it revenge for Norway's restriction of the traditional transit route for goods to Svalbard, reports NRK

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As if Russia's vasal state wouldn't back Russia

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A large-scale prisoner exchange was held with Russia, during which 144 defenders of Ukraine were released from captivity, the Defense Ministry reports.

Among those released are 95 defenders of "Azovstal", including - 43 soldiers of the "Azov" regiment.

The total number of released from captivity during the last prisoner exchange is:

— 59 - from the National Guard;
— 30 - from Navy;
— 28 - from the AFU;
— 17 - from State Border Service of Ukraine;
— 9 - from Territorial Defense;
— 1 - from the National Police of Ukraine

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But the Donetsk's GRP in 2019 was 6.8 billion euros, and the Luhansk's was 1.8. In euros, the totals of those regions was less than 10% of Ukraine's total GDP. quote: The small areas they lost in 2014 shrunk the GDP from 180 billion to 90 billion. It slowly climbed back but only to 110 billion. Your numbers are off. They went from $190 billion to $133 billion in 2014 to $91 billion in 2015 and rebounded to $155 billion in GDP in 2020. The rebound from the 2015 low to 2017 was 23%, which should indicate something to you that you are obviously not perceptive enough to pick up.

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Russia is taking much more of Donbas than the fraction the separatists had in the past few years. You conveniently are ignoring the Southern region Russia has taken (larger than Donbas). You also are conveniently ignoring they’ve lost all of their coastline aside from the small portion that is under a naval blockade.

Ukraine is finished as a nation.