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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/28/22 at 8:48 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 6/28/22 at 8:48 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Well, I can't speak to that. I'm just saying that control of the Dardanelles and the Bosporus, as well as the mostly East-West orientation of Turkey, means that whoever controls that region has the ability to project power into Europe, Western Asia, and Central Asia extremely easily. Historically, it served as the staging point for entry into both Europe proper and West Asia, with easy access to Mesopotamia and North Africa. It also allowed for control of nearly all trade before Europeans found ways around Ottoman control, and thus made whoever controlled it extremely wealthy.
Gotcha, yeah I get the history here but isn’t that to some degree the same level of history as Russia’s repetitive pursuit of buffer borderlands in the European plain for strategic defense? Something that was much more valuable in the past and not much of a real threat today aside from their paranoia? Seems like the 3 countries to have projected the most power in Europe in recent history have been the US, Russia, and China and none required Turkey to do so unless I’m overlooking something. I don’t foresee anyone unseating US and Chinese projection here anytime soon, Turkey in NATO or not.
quote:
If Turkey was left to its own devices, and not part of the NATO security umbrella, it would no doubt seek more control of areas where it traditionally had access, like the entire Levant and the Tigris and Euphrates basin, as well as further into East Thrace and Southeast Europe. It already has sought more influence in those regions, but has been constrained in some regard by the US. Despite this, they are still in heavy competition with the Greeks, Israelis and Egyptians for control of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Agree here, just not sure just how bad of a thing that is in the grand scheme of things in the big picture. Of course, this process surely involves more war in the ME, but there’s essentially always been war in the ME, relatively speaking, and probably always will. Is it not possible the end result here could be more stability than we have today?
quote:
This depends on foreign direct investment, I would think. Regardless of what occurs, Ukraine will seek heavy direct investment from other nations and corporations tied closely to EU nations, but the funding they find will depend on what their security situation looks like.
Agree, I’m assuming postwar Ukraine becomes another of the worlds LARGE Foreign investment rebuild projects with dollars, expertise, and trade flowing from all over the west for mutual long term benefit. I would also not be shocked at all to see significant Chinese investment with interest in their natural resources and grain. This would represent a maturation of Chinese investment in this order from shitholes in Africa to a European nation.
2
Posted on 6/28/22 at 8:50 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
He's literally being paid to spew Russian propaganda.
Hmmmmmm
I think someone is wasting their Rubles.
Posted on 6/28/22 at 9:02 pm to Stidham8
quote:It's killing you that Ukraine still exists, isn't it?
Putin knows the West will grow tired of propping them up when our own economy is entering into a recession. If he chooses to have an operational pause another invasion will be inevitable against a much weaker, smaller, and broken Ukraine in the not too distant future.
Posted on 6/28/22 at 9:04 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
isn’t that to some degree the same level of history as Russia’s repetitive pursuit of buffer borderlands in the European plain for strategic defense? Something that was much more valuable in the past and not much of a real threat today aside from their paranoia?
The key difference was Mustafa Ataturk, who was a forward-thinking leader who wanted Turkey to modernize. Russia hasn't had a leader who was as visionary as Ataturk.
quote:
Seems like the 3 countries to have projected the most power in Europe in recent history have been the US, Russia, and China and none required Turkey to do so unless I’m overlooking something.
The US could project by virtue of key alliances, but Turkey's place in the Cold War was to ensure the USSR didn't have unimpeded access to the Mediterranean. The Chinese would love to have Turkey as the endpoint for their Belt and Road initiative, and have offered some investment in that regard. Russia doesn't need Turkey for projection into Europe, but Turkey and the Ottomans before them are a natural rival for the sphere of influence around both the Black Sea and Caspian Sea.
quote:
I don’t foresee anyone unseating US and Chinese projection here anytime soon, Turkey in NATO or not.
Neither do I.
quote:
Agree here, just not sure just how bad of a thing that is in the grand scheme of things in the big picture. Of course, this process surely involves more war in the ME, but there’s essentially always been war in the ME, relatively speaking, and probably always will. Is it not possible the end result here could be more stability than we have today?
That could be one result, as it took the region 100 years or so to reach the same share of the World's GDP as they had under the Ottomans in 1913. But it's practically impossible, as just like the Baltic states do not want to be dominated by Russia, nor do the independent states in West Asia want to be dominated by Turkey.
This post was edited on 6/28/22 at 9:05 pm
Posted on 6/28/22 at 9:05 pm to Athanatos
quote:
Points to big casualties on both sides and the potential for a pause this summer. Concludes that the long term prospects for Ukraine are better as long as the West keeps the supplies coming.
Just two more weeks fellow Ukraine bros!
Posted on 6/28/22 at 9:35 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
The US could project by virtue of key alliances, but Turkey's place in the Cold War was to ensure the USSR didn't have unimpeded access to the Mediterranean. The Chinese would love to have Turkey as the endpoint for their Belt and Road initiative, and have offered some investment in that regard. Russia doesn't need Turkey for projection into Europe, but Turkey and the Ottomans before them are a natural rival for the sphere of influence around both the Black Sea and Caspian Sea.
But that could be rendered very much outdated before our eyes, or at least a dormant concern for decades in the aftermath of Ukraine. I know Turkey and Russia have had some squabbles over Syria in the last decade. During/after this war seems a solid possibility Turkey moves closer to China and further from Russia, as usual looking out for its own interests regardless of stated alignment. Sort of similar to the potential shift in China closer to us and further from Russia. Seems like this would maintain keeping Russia in check in the Black Sea and potentially strengthen Turkeys ability to do so. Also this doesn’t really matter if Turkey was won over on the NATO vote at a low cost. No sense in starting something that doesn’t need to be started.
quote:
That could be one result, as it took the region 100 years or so to reach the same share of the World's GDP as they had under the Ottomans in 1913. But it's practically impossible, as just like the Baltic states do not want to be dominated by Russia, nor do the independent states in West Asia want to be dominated by Turkey.
Interested to see how their situation in the ME evolves with potential Russian retraction with respect to Syria and by extension norther Iraq if the situation in Ukraine were to get out of hand or possibly expand. This of course puts them at odds with Iran who’s potentially going to experience some degree of loss in perceived big dog partner in their efforts via Russia. That said, it feels like we’re going to ease off of Iran here soon because of oil and a more friendly admin here vs Trump which will enable Iran to do more for itself.
Posted on 6/28/22 at 9:58 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Also this doesn’t really matter if Turkey was won over on the NATO vote at a low cost. No sense in starting something that doesn’t need to be started.
The concessions were resolved with relatively short talks. Serious issues generally require far more intensive talks. This was Turkey just trying to get something, or the appearance of having gotten something, which can be important domestically. The truth is that Turkey's done far more serious things within the last 5 years, and their membership hasn't been called into question. But a lot depends on who potentially replaces Erdogan. Erdogan tried to purge pro-NATO Turkish Armed Forces officers, but there is going to be a pro-NATO bent to those services anyway. He did that as he fears/feared another coup, which would likely start with that officer class and unless something massive has changed, there will always be a prominent pro-NATO wing in Ankara.
quote:
Interested to see how their situation in the ME evolves with potential Russian retraction with respect to Syria and by extension norther Iraq if the situation in Ukraine were to get out of hand or possibly expand. This of course puts them at odds with Iran who’s potentially going to experience some degree of loss in perceived big dog partner in their efforts via Russia. That said, it feels like we’re going to ease off of Iran here soon because of oil and a more friendly admin here vs Trump which will enable Iran to do more for itself.
Letting Iran back into the oil market would help us quite a bit. They are interested in just getting their oil and gas products to market, and are less interested in price manipulations like the Saudis. Using sanctions relief to move Iran from Russia or vice versa is one strategy I don't think we've tried, but requires more skillful diplomacy than the US has traditionally used since the end of the Cold War.
This post was edited on 6/28/22 at 10:01 pm
Posted on 6/28/22 at 10:27 pm to crazy4lsu
Great info, folks. Thanks and keep it coming.
Posted on 6/28/22 at 10:46 pm to RogerTheShrubber
With such discounts to China and India, why wouldn't they? Iran has to be pissed that it's oil to China has been replaced by oil from Russia
Posted on 6/28/22 at 11:00 pm to DabosDynasty
Passage from Black Sea to Aegean Sea is crucial to Russian trade, as well as its navy and colony known as Syria. Russia already has a very inefficient economy. that a NATO member controls that access, which would be an ally of Russia if not in NATO has a huge impact to Russia's security
Posted on 6/29/22 at 2:05 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
You mean the Azov battalion that pinned thousands upon thousands of Russians troops down for 3 months in Mariupol?
What thousands of Russians are you talking about? There, during the blockade of Azov, there were not even two hundred recruited.
By the way, here is a photo of the famous Azov commanders
Their beards were forced to shave off.
Not required by statute
Posted on 6/29/22 at 2:47 am to Stidham8
Smart lad
Posted on 6/29/22 at 2:49 am to ruff fish
quote:
Who is bound by the law? The Geneva Convention only applies to those involved in the conflict. However, for journalists or members of the public elsewhere who wish to follow the Convention’s principles, it may be simplest to avoid sharing any identifiable photographs or recordings of prisoners of war.
Question: Are we going to allow this type of thing on this site? Photos of POWs aren’t specifically banned, but humiliating photos of POWs is a war crime, and that appears to be his intent.
Posted on 6/29/22 at 2:57 am to crazy4lsu
Posted on 6/29/22 at 6:23 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
Letting Iran back into the oil market would help us quite a bit. They are interested in just getting their oil and gas products to market, and are less interested in price manipulations like the Saudis. Using sanctions relief to move Iran from Russia or vice versa is one strategy I don't think we've tried, but requires more skillful diplomacy than the US has traditionally used since the end of the Cold War.
Certainly, but then that feeds their terrorism and shows they have the leverage now, which we’ve gotten our own selves in this situation to begin with. The nuke deal is largely worthless and won’t be an issue before long. Seems the wrong move geopolitically to ease anything or help them at all.
We’re begging Venezuela again. Seems like a lot has changed in the ME from the “unity” created under Trump with the Saudis largely at the center and low oil prices, even before COVID brought us negative oil.
We’ve gotten ourselves in a situation where there’s no good options in the short term and we certainly don’t seem to be making moves long term on oil either.
Posted on 6/29/22 at 6:26 am to CitizenK
quote:
With such discounts to China and India, why wouldn't they? Iran has to be pissed that it's oil to China has been replaced by oil from Russia
Hadn’t thought of that honestly. Wonder where their oil is going now. I’m sure if they EU has been going around the Russian sanctions they’ve probably been going around Iranian sanctions on oil. Iran may be realizing the higher prices elsewhere.
Posted on 6/29/22 at 6:49 am to DabosDynasty
Venezuela doesn't have enough production any longer. Their infrastructure for oil is in shambles still. For most to be able to use it, it has to be upgraded (to syncrude like from Canada). Oh and it is Rosneft who is a major producer in Venezuela now
Posted on 6/29/22 at 6:49 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
So where is the biggest pain to Putin, when Finland joins NATO? Let's study the map a little bit. Let's do some Coca Cola. Or.. Kola. As in Kola peninsula
quote:
Most people didn't know this place even existed. But the Western quarter of the Kola peninsula is one of the most dense collections of nuclear weapons ... on the planet. Russian Arctic fleet has its submarine bases here with several sub pens outside Murmansk
quote:
Similarly, the largest collection of air bases, with long range strategic bombers of the Russian Air Force: Tupolev Tu 160 Blackjack, Tu 122N Backfire, and Tu 95 Bear are parked at air bases along this corridor in Kola Peninsula. The Russian nuclear bombers
quote:
All of Kola peninsula is connected to the rest of Russia on one road and one railroad - that is the orange road I show here. That runs 700 km (450 miles) before it forks. That is a single point of failure for Russia. A strategic stranglehold
quote:
Russia has stationed two DIVISIONS of crack arctic troops to guard this Northern flank Now compare how the danger chances when Finland joins NATO.. The blue arrows. Finland could attack from ANYWHERE. Impossible to block even with 1 million soldiers
quote:
Remember the 40 mile convoy? Finland would not need to OCCUPY this territory. A single COMPANY of specialists could destroy the road, railroad & electric line connecting Murmansk to Russia. And this whole area is dense pine forest. Finns would just vanish
quote:
When Finland was neutral, if Putin were to have a war with NATO, Russia did not have to fear that Finns would come and cut the road to Murmansk. Stopping the Northern passage with 50,000 troops would be enough Now a million soldiers could not stop Finns
Twitter Thread
Copied and pasted the important parts, so there is more to the thread but I quoted most of it. Thread does have the maps.
Man that certainly gives more perspective to the blunder that’s resulting in Finlands NATO ascension.
This post was edited on 6/29/22 at 6:51 am
Posted on 6/29/22 at 7:02 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
So where is the biggest pain to Putin, when Finland joins NATO? Let's study the map a little bit. Let's do some Coca Cola. Or.. Kola. As in Kola peninsula
We are now discussing the statement of the Prime Minister of Scotland on holding a referendum on secession from England.
Full analogy with Ukraine-Russia, similarity with England-Scotland.
For example to support the freedom of choice of the Scots for freedom and independence! To supply the freedom-loving Scottish people with guns and missiles so that they can free themselves from the centuries-old oppression of England and blah blah blah, what Zelensky is advised to say there.
In my opinion, an interesting idea.
Posted on 6/29/22 at 7:05 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 29 June 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russian forces continue to make incremental advances in their efforts to encircle the town of Lysychansk. Since 25 June 2022, Russian forces have advanced a further 2km near the Lysychansk oil refinery, south of the town.
There is a realistic possibility the missile strike on the Kremenchuk shopping centre on 27 June 2022 was intended to hit a nearby infrastructure target. Russia's inaccuracy in conducting long range strikes has previously resulted in mass civilian casualty incidents, including at Kramatorsk railway station on 9 April 2022.
Russian planners highly likely remain willing to accept a high level of collateral damage when they perceive military necessity in striking a target.
It is almost certain that Russia will continue to conduct strikes in an effort to interdict the resupplying of Ukrainian frontline forces. Russia's shortage of more modern precision strike weapons and the professional shortcomings of their targeting planners will highly likely result in further civilian casualties.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 29 June 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russian forces continue to make incremental advances in their efforts to encircle the town of Lysychansk. Since 25 June 2022, Russian forces have advanced a further 2km near the Lysychansk oil refinery, south of the town.
There is a realistic possibility the missile strike on the Kremenchuk shopping centre on 27 June 2022 was intended to hit a nearby infrastructure target. Russia's inaccuracy in conducting long range strikes has previously resulted in mass civilian casualty incidents, including at Kramatorsk railway station on 9 April 2022.
Russian planners highly likely remain willing to accept a high level of collateral damage when they perceive military necessity in striking a target.
It is almost certain that Russia will continue to conduct strikes in an effort to interdict the resupplying of Ukrainian frontline forces. Russia's shortage of more modern precision strike weapons and the professional shortcomings of their targeting planners will highly likely result in further civilian casualties.
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