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Started By
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re: IHME model is getting better for the US...stabilizing as we get more and more good data
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:21 am to TheCaterpillar
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:21 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:What was your reasoning behind this?
I bookmarked ~100 posts from people. Might have a big thread with screenshots.
1
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:21 am to Salmon
So...overestimation based on bad modeling or data?
JK
JK
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:21 am to TheCaterpillar
I mean these are drastic changes in the past week. Can’t see how this is not great news
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:22 am to Salmon
quote:
you have been reading a graph wrong while simultaneously mocking people for reading it right for the last page
I'm reading a graph that's showing a plateau of around 60K deaths.
I'm honestly not sure what you're seeing.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:24 am to RB10
They’re arguing top range , we could just as easily argue bottom range at 30k if we wanted to be dense.
, we could just as easily argue bottom range at 30k if we wanted to be dense. 
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:24 am to RB10
quote:
I'm reading a graph that's showing a plateau of around 60K deaths.
I'm honestly not sure what you're seeing.
You are obviously not seeing the top range of the graph
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 10:28 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:24 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
Many of us have been saying for months that this is probably going to end up 2x the flu.
Y'all said months ago that shutting down large sectors of the the country for several weeks or more would still result in twice as many deaths as the worst flu estimates?
Y'all have been saying that this is a nothingburger and/or hoax since the beginning and that the measures proposed and implemented were completely unnecessary. Now that the measures were taken and the numbers are falling, y'all are saying "See we were right from the beginning". It don't work like that homie.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:25 am to UnluckyTiger
quote:
They’re arguing top range , we could just as easily argue bottom range at 30k if we wanted to be dense.
because the flu deaths top range was being used
which was my entire point
be consistent
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:26 am to Salmon
It’s become apparent who on the OT:
- Hasn’t taken statistics
- Doesn’t remember anything from statistics
- Took statistics but failed
- Hasn’t taken statistics
- Doesn’t remember anything from statistics
- Took statistics but failed
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:26 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
What was your reasoning behind this?
Have some fun with people who predicted millions of deaths from this? And some people who predicted it would be over in a week?
I'm bored and on quarantine. Is is that weird?
I bookmark posts about sports predictions all the damn time too. Bumps are fun
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:29 am to Scruffy
quote:
That isn’t to say social distancing hasn’t had an impact, but these models are also correcting for their extreme projections early on too.
How much impact has the lockdown and social distancing has? How wrong were the models?
Do you know?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:30 am to JohnnyKilroy
Even if ends up being 2X the flu, it got to that number with almost all of the deaths occurring in a 6 week period, not over 4 months.
Additionally it is 2x the flu despite an unprecedented shut down in the majority of the country (and almost every major city).
This reminds me of people on here (and there were many in mid March) saying we shouldn’t shut down the country because South Korea had a low number of deaths, while ignoring all that they had done to combat the coronavirus.
Additionally it is 2x the flu despite an unprecedented shut down in the majority of the country (and almost every major city).
This reminds me of people on here (and there were many in mid March) saying we shouldn’t shut down the country because South Korea had a low number of deaths, while ignoring all that they had done to combat the coronavirus.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:31 am to TheCaterpillar
Ever bookmarked any of my predictions????? Lol.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:31 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:I stand by my prediction.
Y'all said months ago that shutting down large sectors of the the country for several weeks or more would still result in twice as many deaths as the worst flu estimates?
If we don’t reopen soon, the side effects from this “cure” will be catastrophic and far worse than the virus.
quote:I believe there is a middle ground we should have taken with some restrictions in place, but not the full shutdown we have now.
Y'all have been saying that this is a nothingburger and/or hoax since the beginning and that the measures proposed and implemented were completely unnecessary.
Pretty much stand by that statement of mine.
That would be reserved for extremely hard hit areas, like NYC and NOLA.
I do not agree with a one size fits all approach, like we have seen in LA and other states.
quote:I believe the measures being taken are, in some areas, equal in impact or less of an impact than a correction within the models.
Now that the measures were taken and the numbers are falling
quote:Sure it does.
It don't work like that homie.
When people relied on poor data to start (something that isn’t even up for debate anymore) and made predictions based on that, it definitely leaves open the opportunity to be criticized heavily.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 10:33 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:32 am to Salmon
quote:
because the flu deaths top range was being used
which was my entire point
be consistent
I gotcha. I used the projection for Covid rather than the top range. Still, the Covid-19 range is fluid, and dropping daily.
At this rate, the high end is going to fall somewhere between 60k-80k by the end of April.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:32 am to dukke v
I just find it frustrating the entire argument has gone fom "its about hospital capacity, not individual deaths" to "more people will die if we dont stay inside"
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:34 am to Scruffy
quote:
When people relied on poor data to start (something that isn’t even up for debate anymore) and made predictions based on that, it definitely leaves open the opportunity to be criticized heavily.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:36 am to Scruffy
quote:The one saying most of the OTers wouldn’t have any cases in their communities? That one?
I stand by my prediction.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:37 am to SuperSaint
The quarantine worked!! Let’s do this every flu season...a republican is in the White House.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:38 am to lsupride87
Where I live people are driving all over the place. Not sure where they are going. The worst thing that will happen is people seeing numbers go down and think the risk has also went down.
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