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Started By
Message
IHME model is getting better for the US...stabilizing as we get more and more good data
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:45 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:45 am
Check out the comparison of the last 3 big updates.
FYI those two states are the ones I care most about so I've been tracking along with US...
Louisiana projections slightly worse, but the US overall WAY better. This is a great story. The data is stabilizing and we are getting better models.
FYI those two states are the ones I care most about so I've been tracking along with US...
Louisiana projections slightly worse, but the US overall WAY better. This is a great story. The data is stabilizing and we are getting better models.
14
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:46 am to TheCaterpillar
Jesus took the wheel.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:48 am to TheCaterpillar
Because Louisiana was one of the hardest-hit states early on, it makes sense that our numbers would stabilize earlier than other states and then adjust upwards a little.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:50 am to TheCaterpillar
You mean they are correcting it for the ridiculous over projections used to take the economy down to get Trump
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:51 am to Strannix
quote:
ridiculous over projections used to take the economy down to get Trump
Be gone from this thread.
I'm surprised some of you can get yourself dressed in the morning. No reason to inject politics into fricking EVERYTHING.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 9:08 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:53 am to TheCaterpillar
Doesn't this update assume we stay in lockdown till August though?
or just social distancing? the terminology on this is confusing sometimes
or just social distancing? the terminology on this is confusing sometimes
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:54 am to Salmon
quote:
Doesn't this update assume we stay in lockdown till August though?
or just social distancing? the terminology on this is confusing sometimes
Social distancing through May
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:55 am to TheCaterpillar
Literally the flu
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:56 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:If you throw out the “crash the economy to get Trump” part, there is truth to his statement.
Be gone from this thread.
The estimates were way overdone, mainly because we lacked data.
We are seeing death estimate reductions in areas that are so large that it wouldn’t be feasible to obtain reductions of that magnitude with the current restrictions we have.
That isn’t to say social distancing hasn’t had an impact, but these models are also correcting for their extreme projections early on too.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 8:57 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:59 am to TheCaterpillar
excellent news.
now we should get back to work in a week or so, so that we don’t destroy the economy because of media fear mongering.
now we should get back to work in a week or so, so that we don’t destroy the economy because of media fear mongering.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:59 am to Strannix
There's just nothing to be done with this much stupidity and willful ignorance.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:59 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Social distancing through May
You are right
finally found it
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:00 am to TheCaterpillar
Such a tasty nothingburger
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:00 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Social distancing through May
I've been social distancing for several years now. People are annoying.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 9:01 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:01 am to Scruffy
quote:
If you throw out the “crash the economy to get Trump” part, there is truth to his statement.
Absolutely. The early projections were absurd, and even then the media generally reported the high end of it.
Sensationalism still sells.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:02 am to TheCaterpillar
It has been a couple of days since I checked--is the model still predicting 5,500 deaths in Alabama by the end of April? Because the Alabama Dept. of Public Health says that there are only 271 people hospitalized state wide for this and I am having a hard time reconciling these figures.
A lot of significant decisions were made based on that 5,500 death projection.
A lot of significant decisions were made based on that 5,500 death projection.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:03 am to SloaneRanger
quote:Alabama’s death projections decreased a whopping 90% from 9000 to 900...total.
It has been a couple of days since I checked--is the model still predicting 5,500 deaths in Alabama by the end of April? Because the Alabama Dept. of Public Health says that there are only 271 people hospitalized state wide for this and I am having a hard time reconciling these figures.
A lot of significant decisions were made based on that 5,500 death projection.
They are a prime example of the overestimation.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 9:04 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:04 am to Scruffy
quote:
If you throw out the “crash the economy to get Trump” part, there is truth to his statement.
Well, that's the reason I asked him to leave. Politics fricking suck.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:05 am to RB10
quote:
Absolutely. The early projections were absurd, and even then the media generally reported the high end of it.
There is going to be a ton of this, even though most of those projections were probably based on lack of/bad data rather than anything else.
The average dude who "knew" it wouldn't be that bad will be vindicated, his hunch was right.
Of course, a ton of those dudes predicted flu-results, or a thousand deaths, etc., but they'll never mention those predictions.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:05 am to Scruffy
quote:
They are a prime example of the overestimation.
They are also an extreme outlier. They had really bad data early on.
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