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re: IHME model is getting better for the US...stabilizing as we get more and more good data
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:06 am to Pettifogger
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:06 am to Pettifogger
quote:
There is going to be a ton of this, even though most of those projections were probably based on lack of/bad data rather than anything else.
The average dude who "knew" it wouldn't be that bad will be vindicated, his hunch was right.
Of course, a ton of those dudes predicted flu-results, or a thousand deaths, etc., but they'll never mention those predictions.
I bookmarked ~100 posts from people. Might have a big thread with screenshots.
3
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:07 am to Pettifogger
quote:
Of course, a ton of those dudes predicted flu-results, or a thousand deaths, etc., but they'll never mention those predictions.
"Flu results" is the most accurate prediction as of now.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:07 am to Scruffy
quote:so if you throw out the main point of his post, there is truth to his statement
If you throw out the “crash the economy to get Trump” part, there is truth to his statement.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:08 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:You cannot give the modelers a pass for that though.
They had really bad data early on.
That aside, even in other areas, the range was so broad that there was no way they were going to be deemed incorrect.
Hell, LA showed something like a 40-50% reduction.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 9:11 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:09 am to Scruffy
quote:
You cannot give the modelers a pass for that though.
of course you can
you model with what you have
whether or not politicians choose to make policy off of that is another story
quote:
That aside, even in other areas, the range was so broad that there was no way they were going to be deemed incorrect.
and with better data that have narrowed their range
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:11 am to Salmon
quote:And that is the issue.
whether or not politicians choose to make policy off of that is another story
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:11 am to Scruffy
quote:
You cannot give the modelers a pass for that though.
Yes, you can. That is the nature of modeling. They can't make up numbers.
People who don't realize these things get better and better with newer data are the ones we should mock.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:11 am to Scruffy
quote:
whether or not politicians choose to make policy off of that is another story
And that is the issue.
Ok, so blame them. Not the modelers.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:12 am to RB10
quote:
"Flu results" is the most accurate prediction as of now.
The flu kills around 1000 or so people per day during flu season worldwide.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:12 am to LSURussian
quote:~93% reduction.
634 deaths projected for Alabama.
Wow.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:13 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Social distancing through May
Too long, and I have been isolated and told people to isolate for a month now.
The economy can't take much more than the end of April. That needs to be the middle ground for risk/reward on the virus and economy, IMO
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:13 am to Scruffy
quote:
And that is the issue.
not the modelers fault
I run models all day. Sometimes I have really good data and sometimes I have really bad data. Bad data means bad answers. Good data means good answers.
It isn't my fault when I have bad data.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:14 am to shawnlsu
quote:
The economy can't take much more than the end of April. That needs to be the middle ground for risk/reward on the virus and economy, IMO
Social distancing =/= stay at home order FWIW
social distancing is the middle ground
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:14 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
People who don't realize these things get better and better with newer data are the ones we should mock.
Well, the way they're being presented is a huge problem.
"Early Projections Very High, Likely to Decrease With More Data"
vs.
"Top Expert Says Millions Will Die"
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:15 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Yes, you can. That is the nature of modeling. They can't make up numbers.
People who don't realize these things get better and better with newer data are the ones we should mock.
The actual data is no doubt significantly effected by the protective measures which have been adopted almost universally in the United States. If the measures turn out to do what they were designed to do, then the spread of the virus will have been controlled. It won't have been controlled by some weakness on the part of the virus, but by the protective public health measures.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:15 am to shawnlsu
quote:
Too long
Social distancing isn’t isolation.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:17 am to shawnlsu
quote:
Too long, and I have been isolated and told people to isolate for a month now.
The economy can't take much more than the end of April. That needs to be the middle ground for risk/reward on the virus and economy, IMO
I think we can social distance while phasing the economy back online.
- Keep the 6ft rule where we can
- Wear masks when we can
- No large gatherings, no parties, no concerts, etc.
- Work from home whenever possible
- Businesses can open at 50% capacity
- Isolate the vulnerable
- Require C19 and antibody tests whenever available for everyone
You can do all of this and still open shite up.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:17 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Yes, you can. That is the nature of modeling. They can't make up numbers.
People who don't realize these things get better and better with newer data are the ones we should mock.
And the same people would be screaming about "they should have shut it down" if we found ourselves in the opposite scenario right now with hundreds of thousands dead.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:17 am to TheCaterpillar
Lots of modeling apologists. You cannot put out these ridiculously overstated numbers and expect people to take you seriously next time.
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