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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:35 am to Oates Mustache
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:35 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Surge = Less
Wind = Higher
Rainfall = Catastrophic
Everything is less for Tampa the farther south it goes. You want to be on the north side of this one.
Right front quadrant is the SE side on a storm making landfall moving NE.
1
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:36 am to Aspercel
quote:
Va, you may need to store that wine higher up? I really hope not.
I forgot he was the wine guy. Load that liquid gold up and hit the road!
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:37 am to SippyCup
quote:
12Z: 10:30am - ?
Coffee Talk GFS
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:37 am to SippyCup
Subject to change depending on exact track...
For those familiar with the SW FL coast, as of the 11 AM advisory, the center of the cone crosses the coastline at Casey Key (North Venice).
If the current NHC track ends up being the actual track and depending on the eye size at landfall, Casey Key down through Boca Grande would be the worst impact.
But many areas both south AND NORTH of that will have severe impacts. Follow your local emergency management sources and GET AWAY FROM THE GULF if you are in a flood/surge zone.
For those familiar with the SW FL coast, as of the 11 AM advisory, the center of the cone crosses the coastline at Casey Key (North Venice).
If the current NHC track ends up being the actual track and depending on the eye size at landfall, Casey Key down through Boca Grande would be the worst impact.
But many areas both south AND NORTH of that will have severe impacts. Follow your local emergency management sources and GET AWAY FROM THE GULF if you are in a flood/surge zone.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:40 am to Aspercel
quote:
Va, you may need to store that wine higher up? I really hope not.
Yeah, the counter is high enough but I do worry a little about the wines still in the tacks. We're predicted to get 3-5' of surge and even at high tide we're 4' above the level in the canals and fortunately we don't live directly on a canal.
If the wine has to be higher than the counter the house is FUBAR.
What is worrisome to me is the southward trend for landfall. It helps Tampa but it absolutely screws Ft. Myers and Cape Coral which isn't too far from me.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:40 am to NorthEndZone
For the record the Euro has outperformed the GFS this season .
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:41 am to The Boat
quote:
Everything is less for Tampa the farther south it goes.
They're trading rainfall for surge at this point. I think it would need to be farther south not to bone Tampa with freshwater flooding.
But its better than 10' of water into Tampa Bay.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:42 am to NorthEndZone
quote:
Casey Key down through Boca Grande would be the worst impact.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 10:55 am
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:42 am to VABuckeye
quote:
Keep on shifting south, that's fine.
Not for those of us that live south, it isn't.
Would also increase the chances of Ian going back into the Atlantic and then another landfall in the Carolinas.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:43 am to rds dc
Can anyone give me some insight on what’s in store for the Naples area? Got a relative there that I am trying to advise. Thinking if she does need to evacuate then best option is probably just to head east to ft lauderdale at this point.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:43 am to Duke
quote:
They're trading rainfall for surge at this point.
New GFS is running, but this was last run. If it shifts further south, Tampa might get a little less, we'll see.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:44 am to Duke
Bonita Springs is awesome too, the latest shift looks pretty bad for them.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:46 am to Rebel920
I would get out of Naples
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:47 am to Aspercel
quote:
Pets are definitely Better than cleaning, imo
Pretty sure caring for pets that can't go outside to do their business would involve even worse cleaning.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:47 am to VABuckeye
I’m sorry. I feel absolutely terrible for all of you guys. Mother Nature is so scary.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:47 am to Rebel920
quote:
Can anyone give me some insight on what’s in store for the Naples area?
Id leave Naples unless theres some compelling reason to stay. Wouldnt take much a wobble south to hammer them.
Go east, and hopefully shes back in a day or two.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:48 am to Duke
Models have the cataclysmic rainfall totals in a pretty narrow band around the center. Any shift south could have big impacts on areas down there maybe not paying attention because Tampa gets the coverage. Same thing that happened before Charley. People to the south were caught off guard.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:48 am to PsychTiger
Eh… as a pet person, I’d be ok with it. I basically live in a stall most of the time.
But none of it is fun
But none of it is fun
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:49 am to VABuckeye
quote:
Keep on shifting south, that's fine.
Not for those of us that live south, it isn't.
look man, it isn't personal...
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:49 am to gonecoastal
quote:
Reporting live from the Florida Keys. It’s raining…
I guess I'm Captain Obvious here, but this weekend, Fri., Sat., Sunday...
Off the Flooorida Keeeeys
There's a place called Kokomo
That's where you wanna go
To get away from it all
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