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Started By
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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:04 am to CobraCommander83
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:04 am to CobraCommander83
quote:
Either way, we are prepping for the possibility of State Active Duty.
Always good to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
0
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:04 am to Duke
Just to compare....
From this:
To this:
In less than five days.
From this:
To this:
In less than five days.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:05 am to Roll Tide Ravens
wxman just posted....holy shite. 12-14 feet of surge at the coast wherever it comes inland. Got damn.
quote:
Once again, NHC track moved right on top of mine. With SW-W sheared storms in the Gulf, they almost always move more quickly and turn sharper east than predicted. I have it inland in the Sarasota-Venice area around sunset tomorrow (always at night). Could be south of Venice. The farther south it tracks, the stronger it will remain up to landfall. SLOSH indicates 12-14 ft where the center meets the coast. Wouldn't be anything into Tampa Bay.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 11:06 am
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:05 am to Abstract Queso Dip
quote:
How good is the insulation on a washing machine? Is it yeti level or close? Has anyone ever tried putting ice in it. Sorry i'm ignorant on these topics but fascinated. I woudl think that there should be something on top of the lid so there would be less exposure
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:06 am to CidCock
Anyone from Ft Myers to north of Tampa near the coast should be in the car right now.
Even if you dont get storm surge you are looking at 20"+ of rain plus major wind issues.
Why deal with that and days of power outages?
Just go somewhere fun and call it an unplanned vacation.
Even if you dont get storm surge you are looking at 20"+ of rain plus major wind issues.
Why deal with that and days of power outages?
Just go somewhere fun and call it an unplanned vacation.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:06 am to Duke
quote:
This fricker is really going to strengthen right off a landfall?
Cuba has never done its job in any of the runs. Lazy bum of a land mass to interact with.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:07 am to LegendInMyMind
When I left my house for Laura, it was projected high Cat 2. Nobody on earth can convince me it wasn't a Cat 5
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:08 am to LC Baw
Latest GFS still likes Tampa for the heaviest rain, though the totals are 10" less now.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:08 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
That's what sucks about trying to message a hurricane like this. Too many variables and too many people thinking they will be fine. Rock and a hard spot, really.
That's because statistically they are right. Most people will be fine. Then that one storm comes, and they are waiting on that shift that never materializes. Now, they aren't fine.
I have this issue with my stubborn father in Morgan City. They have gotten so lucky down there with storms turning just east or going a good bit west. With every miss and his advancing age, it is getting harder and harder to get him to leave.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 11:32 am
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:09 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Latest GFS still likes Tampa for the heaviest rain, though the totals are 10" less now.
Check out that gradient. These shifts mean big things concerning impacts for a given area.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:11 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Latest GFS still likes Tampa for the heaviest rain, though the totals are 10" less now.
A) Still tons of rain on a global model. Would likely be higher total in that band.
B) The gradient is very tight. It wont take much of a move south to save Tampa and screw someone else.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:15 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Im feeling better and better about staying, but leaving isn’t off the table.
What’s your justification for staying? Downtown St. Pete is going to be an absolute shite show.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:18 am to tide06
Really, there is not much of a danger to be had with the flooding and most of this is all overreaction. For an practical example, take a look at this “Fudge Flood Cake” dessert from Applebee’s. it’s a delicious dessert but also represents our situation quite accurately. If you notice that the fudge (our water in this case) is mostly contained inside the center of the cake (eye of the hurricane) and not that much has spilled out. For hurricane ian It means the same thing: most of the water will be contained in the eye of the hurricane with little to no surge (or fudge in our example) leaking out beyond the eye wall. So as the forecast predicts that the eye will not go on shore, most of the storm surge will remain at sea. It’s best to have prepared a little bit of precautionary items like canned chili, frozen pizza, a couple liters of your favorite soft drink (for sugar/energy) but anything beyond that is pure over reaction.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:18 am to facher08
quote:
That's because statistically they are right. Most people will be fine.
Most will be fine physically, but mentally not many people choose to ride out a second cat 2 or higher, there is a serious pucker factor, even when the odds of death are still really low. There is no good reason to put oneself through torment.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:18 am to STEVED00
quote:
South of Ft Myers on the Florida peninsula is pretty uninhabited until you get to Miami, correct? Isn’t that where the Everglades is located? So if anywhere can take a direct hit, that section of Fla would be best, correct?
No, not at all. You have Bonita, Naples, Marco. Alligator Alley is east of Marco and Naples. The coast is populated. The middle of the state in this area is sparsely populated.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:19 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Appears to be Go Time for our boy Ian
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:21 am to Bobby OG Johnson
I’ve got a buddy in Lakeland. He says he’s staying. He’s got a wife and kids. He’s got a generator. How screwed is he?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:22 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
This fricker is really going to strengthen right off a landfall?
Cuba has never done its job in any of the runs.
If the liquid nitrogen tankers don’t work we should build some mountains in western cuba.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:22 am to Bobby OG Johnson
I haven't read the discussion the AM. Have they thrown in the "Preparations need to be rushed to completion...." line yet?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:23 am to Bernie Bierman
We packed up and left Tampa this morning. We live on the water so we decided to not risk it. Lots of friends staying to wait it out, but they are from Mid West. They don’t understand that 7-10 days without power in the heat and humidity is what kills you, not the storm.
We are heading up to Lake Martin in Alabama and will hit up LSU / Auburn game !
We are heading up to Lake Martin in Alabama and will hit up LSU / Auburn game !
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