re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

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Seriously though, if it makes y’all feel any better, all my shite is dying right now except for that particular oak I wanted Ida to take out. Everything is dead as a door nail but that big bastard looks like it’s in a damn rainforest right now.

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The mighty oak lives on.

Its root system will find any water it can hidden underground.

I was able to get rid of my oak for Ida. It fell on my roof. My neighbor even got rid of her pine trees after Ida. Summers like these make me wish I had the trees back. It was much cooler under the shade of my oak. But I also don’t mind that it is gone. It is way easier to cut the grass and I actually have grass in places that the oak was so thick, it prevented grass from growing.

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Latest GFS slight shift west and stronger

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That image is causing me PTSD times 10.

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Latest HWRF is ummmm not good

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Has support from the HAFS-B

HWRF is known to spin up some meatballs

Thought for a second the Euro was gonna have 93L do a loop back over Florida but it goes out to sea

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That's a Category 2.

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Not good for crawfish prices.

All the hurricane models from 12z are pretty impressive:

HMON



HAFS-A



HWRF



HAFS-B



Models continue to trend faster and shallower with the NE US trough, continue to struggle with the placement of Franklin, and are trending westward with the ridge over the Carribean. All of this has resulted in improving conditions for a system in the Eastern Gulf.

This is from James Spann this afternoon. He’s now even mentioning the possibility of a major hurricane.

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EARLY AFTERNOON NOTES ON THE GULF SYSTEM: Invest 93L continues to look well organized, and NHC will likely initiate advisories on the system shortly. It will likely become Tropical Storm Idalia (pronounced ee-DAL-ya) by tonight or early tomorrow.

*The new runs of the Hurricane Forecast Analysis System (HAFS) are more aggressive with the system, suggesting it could be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida coast Tuesday night.

*For now models suggest the highest landfall probabilities are east of Panama City Beach, in the zone from Indian Pass to Piney Point. I would suggest those in that area begin hurricane preparations... places like St. George Island, Carrabelle, and Saint Marks.

*Understand this could easily change, but model consistency is fairly decent at this early stage of the game. Everyone from Pensacola to Fort Myers will need to monitor future forecasts.

*Too early for a storm surge or impact forecast for any given point, but remember the main impact will be along and to the right (east) of where the center makes landfall, where the flow will be onshore.

*Most of Alabama will be on the dry side of the circulation, but the southeast corner of the state could see some wind and rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Stay tuned for updates!

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Looks to me the placement of the trough ends up helping the outflow.

The hurricane models are probably on to something, especially given

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Models continue to trend faster and shallower with the NE US trough, continue to struggle with the placement of Franklin, and are trending westward with the ridge over the Carribean. All of this has resulted in improving conditions for a system in the Eastern Gulf.

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