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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread
Posted on 8/25/23 at 6:46 am to purple18
Posted on 8/25/23 at 6:46 am to purple18
GFS has it catching the front as a sheared mess while the Euro has it missing the front and coming behind it more vertically stacked and stronger at landfall. Both landfalls at Florida west coast
3
Posted on 8/25/23 at 7:08 am to deltaland
KLFY was on one this morning. They apparently found a model that has the front not dipping this low, and no change in temperature. Holding on to that fear porn.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 7:14 am to Cajunhawk81
Y'all need to chill worrying about the high pressure protection leaving.
In this case, it is replaced for a bit with a trough in the east. This would tend to send traffic away from the United States, with the winds pushing shite east.
What we havent seen a lot of is the Bermuda High dominating the scene. Thats the set up that has gotten LA in trouble the last few years. Something forms in the Carib and rides the edge of the Atlantic ridge toward the Gulf Coast.
I wouldnt worry until traffic is actually directed back toward LA.
In this case, it is replaced for a bit with a trough in the east. This would tend to send traffic away from the United States, with the winds pushing shite east.
What we havent seen a lot of is the Bermuda High dominating the scene. Thats the set up that has gotten LA in trouble the last few years. Something forms in the Carib and rides the edge of the Atlantic ridge toward the Gulf Coast.
I wouldnt worry until traffic is actually directed back toward LA.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 8:29 am to zsav77
quote:
Maybe a storm can take your house out, no one else’s… I’d watch that on live stream
Hope it flings it into Minute Maid into the club seats.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 8:41 am to deltaland
So some light showers for Tampa at this point? Will be interesting to see if that changes.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 9:42 am to Duke
quote:
What we havent seen a lot of is the Bermuda High dominating the scene. Thats the set up that has gotten LA in trouble the last few years. Something forms in the Carib and rides the edge of the Atlantic ridge toward the Gulf Coast.
Is it weaker this year or just centered a bit further north?
Posted on 8/25/23 at 10:24 am to maisweh
Getting rid of safeco over here. That weird downburst thing or whatever that wasn’t really a downburst that rolled through Oak Hills a few weeks ago left us needing a new roof. Called safeco. Wind and hail deductible is 10K! Bastards!
Posted on 8/25/23 at 10:37 am to berrycajun
quote:
Called safeco. Wind and hail deductible is 10K! Bastards!
That’s because you have a percentage deductible for W&H (probably 2%). It’s based on the value of your home. Good luck finding a new policy without that.
If you are lucky enough to find one that will right for a straight $2000 deductible, you are going to pay out the arse for that.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 10:50 am to BigBinBR
quote:
That’s because you have a percentage deductible for W&H (probably 2%). It’s based on the value of your home. Good luck finding a new policy without that.
2%? I dream of that down in Terrebonne. You pretty much can't get less than 5% unless you have a brand new home built like a brick shite house and inspected along the way specifically for insurance purposes. I signed with SafePort last week for 5%. My previous policy with Ocean Harbor was 2% when Ida came through.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:08 am to deltaland
Pretty big changes on the 12z GFS as it continues to trend towards the Euro.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:13 am to rds dc
Please don't frick with the LSU game that's all I ask.
This post was edited on 8/25/23 at 11:23 am
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:14 am to rds dc
quote:
Pretty big changes on the 12z GFS as it continues to trend towards the Euro.
Go on . . .
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:17 am to Tornado Alley
quote:
Go on . . .
Those 30A stickers are gonna be flyin
Cat 1-2 into Seaside cornhole
This post was edited on 8/25/23 at 11:18 am
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:18 am to Tornado Alley
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:18 am to lsugolfredman
yeah if I had to take a guess, this one is going between Mobile and Big Bend of Florida.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:19 am to gaetti15
quote:
yeah if I had to take a guess, this one is going between Mobile and Big Bend of Florida.
So thats what your gut tells you?
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:22 am to Cosmo
quote:
So thats what your gut tells you?
as of right now yes. Euro, ICON, CMC have it somewhere near Big Bend (left or right of it) Trough is weaker on the GFS, so it's not feeling the pull as much to the NE. Also depends on if it stays over the Yucatan or over water to the East.
It will be interesting to look at GEFS to see the spread.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:22 am to gaetti15
Hell of a guess. Out on a limb with that one
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:23 am to HighRoller
quote:
Hell of a guess. Out on a limb with that one
I leave the bold predictions for Peej (and tarzana)
This post was edited on 8/25/23 at 11:23 am
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:23 am to HighRoller
This thing is 5 days out and no cone yet 
But nonstop updates on nothingburger Franklin
But nonstop updates on nothingburger Franklin
This post was edited on 8/25/23 at 11:24 am
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