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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:10 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:10 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Hurricane models did well,
4 days out, they said 20 miles from where it hit. 3 days out, they said 5 miles from where it ultimately came in.
That deserves an attaboy.
1
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:11 pm to TH03
Keeping this as a hurricane with this update is a bit of a stretch. If you go pixel hunting you maybe can find 80mph on a frame here or there well above the ground, maybe. A weather station in the heaviest rain band currently has measured a max gust of 52mph.
This post was edited on 8/30/23 at 12:12 pm
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:14 pm to Hangit
quote:
4 days out, they said 20 miles from where it hit. 3 days out, they said 5 miles from where it ultimately came in.
That deserves an attaboy
They did well with track, but this conversation was regarding strength. They did decent with that, too. Intensity models....not so much. Hurricane models also didn't do well with Franklin's strength, though they didn't have quite the data they did with Idalia.
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:16 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
To be fair to that point, both Levi and Philippe are NHC employees. That's where they get their check. They can't risk the dramatics and hysterics.
Mark Sudduth may be the most level headed private sector guy who does actual forecasting out there. He's managed to find a balance that most others haven't. Trey Greenwood (@StormChaseAZ and @ConvChronicles) is Mark's counterpart in severe/tornadic weather.
space city weather generally does a good job.
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:19 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Keeping this as a hurricane with this update is a bit of a stretch. If you go pixel hunting you maybe can find 80mph on a frame here or there well above the ground, maybe. A weather station in the heaviest rain band currently has measured a max gust of 52mph.
NHC overstated its intensity all day. It looked more like a decaying cat 2 on radar and satellite as it made landfall. Dry air did a number on it. It’s been a while since a Gulf hurricane weakened before landfall.
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:23 pm to The Boat
quote:
It looked more like a decaying cat 2 on radar and satellite as it made landfall. Dry air did a number on it. It’s been a while since a Gulf hurricane weakened before landfall.
It reminded me of Lily falling apart near landfall
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:23 pm to The Boat
quote:
NHC overstated its intensity all day. It looked more like a decaying cat 2 on radar and satellite as it made landfall. Dry air did a number on it. It’s been a while since a Gulf hurricane weakened before landfall.
I want to see the final report with max winds. I've seen some lists and I've looked at some stations. Fair enough that it is hard to keep an anemometer going, but I don't think all failed at around 90mph. Gonna be an interesting final report in a few months.
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:25 pm to The Boat
quote:
NHC overstated its intensity all day. It looked more like a decaying cat 2 on radar and satellite as it made landfall. Dry air did a number on it
Word
quote:
It’s been a while since a Gulf hurricane weakened before landfall.
I'll take it
Hope everyone is doing ok out there
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:26 pm to LegendInMyMind
Also, remember the difference in the winds in a strengthening storm vs a weakening one.
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:31 pm to The Boat
quote:
It looked more like a decaying cat 2 on radar and satellite as it made landfall
Agree with that.
The last dropsonde before landfall showed only 89 knots in the lowest 500 meters and only 102 knots at any height. May not have been the strongest band that was sampled, but those readings are not what you would normally see in a high end Cat 3.
The researchers will have a lot to look at with this one. Seems like the winds at the surface - and even well above the surface - never increased to what the central pressure implied that they should have been.
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:40 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Cowan said it was Cat 3 at landfall. Power lines fell over 75 at Valdosta so it was closed, not sure if back open. Apparently parts of Lowndes Cty got 6+ inches of rain so far the creek by my parents is already rising so will guess there will be some flooding through south GA in next week, especially as there has been a ton of rain above it flowing into those rivers this week.
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:49 pm to The Boat
quote:Lili is the last one i remember. Im sure there were others I just remember that one because it wouldve fricked up SMP had it not weakened
NHC overstated its intensity all day. It looked more like a decaying cat 2 on radar and satellite as it made landfall. Dry air did a number on it. It’s been a while since a Gulf hurricane weakened before landfall.
Posted on 8/30/23 at 12:55 pm to OldCityGator
quote:I hope she sues her hair stylist.
Peak Florida Woman right here: I LOVE DANGER BARBIE
Posted on 8/30/23 at 1:24 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I hope she sues her hair stylist.
She might as well….she sure as shite ain’t gonna need a haircut anytime soon!!!
Posted on 8/30/23 at 1:30 pm to OldCityGator
quote:
Peak Florida Woman right here
I am in love. Florida bros, where do I have to go to find someone like her?
Posted on 8/30/23 at 1:42 pm to Bernie Bierman
quote:Just about any trailer park...
where do I have to go to find someone like her?
Posted on 8/30/23 at 1:45 pm to LanierSpots
Interesting as I was watching some live cams on AMI this morning and didn't see any flooding. I forget which ones though.
Our family is gathering on AMI in November (not all at same place) and worry that the places we have reservations at will not be available due to damage....
Brother in Bradenton said it was just some wind and not alot of rain.... seen photos of the King Tide and surge flooding Warner's bayou and topping sea walls off the Manatee River and in San Remo Shores
Our family is gathering on AMI in November (not all at same place) and worry that the places we have reservations at will not be available due to damage....
Brother in Bradenton said it was just some wind and not alot of rain.... seen photos of the King Tide and surge flooding Warner's bayou and topping sea walls off the Manatee River and in San Remo Shores
Posted on 8/30/23 at 1:49 pm to OldCityGator
Kelsey is high as frick.
Posted on 8/30/23 at 2:00 pm to rds dc
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