re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

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I’d recommend watching the YouTube channels like Ryan Hall.

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With all due respect, Ryan Hall is just as bad:



It’s basically only guys like Levi Cowan and Philippe Papin that you can trust and follow without hyperbole.

I agree the titles are click baity, but I don’t feel like I’m being yelled at like everything is Armageddon.

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It’s very public…

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I wonder where those "curves" asymptote at eventually, like theoretically, the lowest the forecast error can go is zero, but that's not reality.

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Pretty impressive they can be 5 days out and now where landfall is going to be within 100 miles

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I like this graphic as it eliminates the average which can be skewed by big misses:

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Due to the natural volatility in tropical cyclone track characteristics, annual errors can vary significantly from year to year. For example, years dominated by tracks through the low latitude easterly trade winds typically have relatively small annual errors. Conversely, a relatively large number of forecasts in the mid-latitude westerlies (as can occur during El Ni?o years) can lead to larger errors. Consequently, representative or stable error characteristics must be obtained using a longer period of record. NHC uses a 5-year sample to define its current forecast error characteristics. Average errors for the last 5 period are given below. These verifications follow the procedures given above in Section 2 (i.e., they include the subtropical and depression stages) and the sample is homogeneous with the operational CLIPER5 and Decay-SHIFOR5 models.

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They’re also more accurate on hurricanes than they are on tropical storms, but j can’t seem to find the data for that.

I had to stop giving Ryan Hall clicks... too dramatic.


Someone POW is a good one. I forgot the first part of his handle

Reed Timmer storm surge footage from Cedar Key, FL.

YouTube

We have had minimal rain in ponte vedra. Some heavy gusts that make you pucker up when you here the trees.

I have had a kind of mist blowing with that last little burst. It could be picking that up on the radar.

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It’s basically only guys like Levi Cowan and Philippe Papin that you can trust and follow without hyperbole.

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To be fair to that point, both Levi and Philippe are NHC employees. That's where they get their check. They can't risk the dramatics and hysterics.

Mark Sudduth may be the most level headed private sector guy who does actual forecasting out there. He's managed to find a balance that most others haven't. Trey Greenwood (@StormChaseAZ and @ConvChronicles) is Mark's counterpart in severe/tornadic weather.

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definitely, but the models were very good for idalia on this

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As a whole the intensity models struggled big time. Hurricane models did well, but they also at the same time whiffed on Franklin's strength.