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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - Name Wasters Everywhere and then Some Calm to Start July
Posted on 6/23/22 at 6:48 am to Cosmo
Posted on 6/23/22 at 6:48 am to Cosmo
quote:
Youre better than this
I wish I was
There are a number of reasons that this setup has a higher than climo chance of producing a system. It's still low but overall chances are higher than you would typically expect for this early in the season. In the end, climo should still win out, this ends up being a "nothing burger" and we can move on to late August.
2
Posted on 6/23/22 at 6:55 am to rds dc
Was in Texas last week where everyone was complaining they need rain - can this just go water their grass?
Posted on 6/23/22 at 7:05 am to Slagathor
quote:
as a THREE TIME color the weather contest winner, I concur
That's some BS
SO many entries and they always picked one considerably worse than my masterpiece.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 7:07 am to rds dc
Heading to Isla on Tuesday.... great
Posted on 6/23/22 at 7:16 am to rds dc
Oh joy….
Posted on 6/23/22 at 7:17 am to rds dc
Cone season. I’m ready.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 8:18 am to rds dc
quote:
overall chances are higher than you would typically expect for this early in the season
The paid weather service pro meteorologists said that this system has a "marginal" at best chance for development.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 9:13 am to Oates Mustache
Posted on 6/23/22 at 12:10 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
quote:
overall chances are higher than you would typically expect for this early in the season
quote:
The paid weather service pro meteorologists said that this system has a "marginal" at best chance for development.
Higher than climo vs marginal is really splitting hairs but I would fade higher with development chances vs. lower. Models are showing the TUTT (primary driver of early season wind shear) moving out at the right time and background flow isn't roaring. However, the wave is pretty far south and it's not consolidated, so that will make it harder for it to wrap up, even with the modeled favorable conditions.
The 12z CMC and GFS both have a system in the Caribbean in one week.
ETA: That's a robust D5 signal on the 12z GEFS
This post was edited on 6/23/22 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 6/23/22 at 1:40 pm to rds dc
When does this high pressure we’re under causing this heat move? I hate to ask for rain, but I’m ready for more regular afternoon showers.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 1:45 pm to rds dc
Euro onboard too this afternoon.
Euro ensembles have been on this for days, so I suspect that continues.
Euro ensembles have been on this for days, so I suspect that continues.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 3:06 pm to Duke
quote:
Euro onboard too this afternoon.
Euro ensembles have been on this for days, so I suspect that continues.
12z EPS
Posted on 6/23/22 at 3:08 pm to rds dc
With not a single OTS option on any ensemble. This is definitely interesting for late June.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 3:22 pm to LegendInMyMind
Will likely be a Central America landfall
Posted on 6/23/22 at 3:33 pm to rds dc
GOM already Hot as hell. Especially right off the LA coast. It might be a rough season if anything gets into the gulf.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 3:38 pm to deltaland
quote:
Will likely be a Central America landfall
I'm not sold on that at all. Pretty much all operational and ensemble models are showing whatever develops, heading toward the Caribbean. If there's a slight weakness in the ridge, well....
And I'm about as optimistic of a weather freak as you'll get, and there's still plenty of time to watch, but it's definitely concerning to see so many similar Caribbean solutions showing up this far out.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 3:44 pm to jcaz
quote:
It might be a rough season if anything gets into the gulf.
What does this even mean? Something is going to get into the Gulf at some point. And the water won’t be any cooler. Make a prediction. What’s the point of your “it might, if” statement?
Posted on 6/23/22 at 4:40 pm to tigerinthebueche
How many days is this out? 8? 14? 350?
This post was edited on 6/23/22 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 6/23/22 at 4:51 pm to tigerinthebueche
quote:
quote:
It might be a rough season if anything gets into the gulf.
What does this even mean? Something is going to get into the Gulf at some point. And the water won’t be any cooler. Make a prediction. What’s the point of your “it might, if” statement?
Well, technically he's right. Water temps are just one part of the puzzle. The Gulf can be 100 degrees but if there's too much shear you can kiss any tropical activity goodbye. So, it MIGHT be a rough season, given the temps of the gulf but it might not be, given the potential for strong shear.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 4:54 pm to TDsngumbo
Baw, we don't want no tropical system blowing the rest of your hair off.
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