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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:31 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
looks like ole girl is putting back on her big girl panties.
Fox 13 out of Tampa is saying that it will drop to a 4 about the time it is north of Haiti and ride in as a 4.
It also said 50 gusts in Tampa, 60 gusts in Zephyrhills, and 70 at my house. It is still too damned early to be telling people this horse shed.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:31 am to jb4
quote:
So what happens in the Everglades? Flying pythons and alligators
but not you could say we are all watching sy fi.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:31 am to Rhino5
Yep. Now it looks like it's down to 918.
Why do they expect it to weaken when it's going to be passing over warmer water with very little in the way of land masses to disrupt it?
Why do they expect it to weaken when it's going to be passing over warmer water with very little in the way of land masses to disrupt it?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:32 am to Hangit
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:32 am to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
We're posting on the OT. By definition, we ALL are OT idiocy.
Don't think you're not.
tOT is an idiocracy damn it
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:33 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Yep. Now it looks like it's down to 918.
Why do they expect it to weaken when it's going to be passing over warmer water with very little in the way of land masses to disrupt it?
believe I heard someone way some shear is in its future
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:34 am to cajunangelle
quote:
Levi Cowan Retweeted
NWS Tampa Bay?Verified account @NWSTampaBay 2 hours ago
The forecast moves the center of #Irma up the Florida East Coast. Can I now let my guard down in Louisiana? Absolutely Not. #flwx
LINK
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:34 am to Tigahs24Seven
quote:
I saw the same thing. The NNW movement and wobble. I don't think you will hear the media discuss it though. They don't want people to stay on false hope.
To be fair imo, you dont want this to happen and then have her turn back more westerly because now you are removing more of the Cuba element.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:34 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Why do they expect it to weaken when it's going to be passing over warmer water with very little in the way of land masses to disrupt it?
Just enough land interaction plus isn't it supposed to take in some dry air at some point?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:34 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Why do they expect it to weaken when it's going to be passing over warmer water with very little in the way of land masses to disrupt it?
Not sure, wind shear maybe? maybe the cooler air that has pushed through the south east
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:34 am to RollTide1987
Where do people get the GFS picture graphics that are typically posted? I follow the model runs on Levi's site, but a lot of times individual JPEG's are posted - just curious where I can find those.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:36 am to LSUBoo
The model changed 2nd or first whatever it ends up-- landfall more North of Savannah and Charleston. Anyone know the current (it will change again I know) landfall? Is it more Myrtle Beachish?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:36 am to rt3
in the previous 3 hours since the last drop in the eye... the storm has moved +0.4N +0.7W
surface pressure is 920 (down 1 mb)
surface pressure is 920 (down 1 mb)
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:37 am to TakingStock
I find a lot of my information on tropicaltidbits.com, spaghettimodels.com and on twitter
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:40 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:lol! Somebody's trolling! That answer was in response to someone in Tampa. As THEY are still in the cone, not LA.
The forecast moves the center of #Irma up the Florida East Coast. Can I now let my guard down in Louisiana? Absolutely Not. #flwx
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:40 am to TakingStock
At Levi's site you can create the gif on the bottom. Not all browsers do this. You click 'forecast gif' here LINK and then you add the numbers to the right side of start and end time of the gif. (I always follow Hubba Bubba on here to see the gifs shortly after the model is loaded.)
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:42 am to otowntiger
I wasn't trying to troll. I'll never be comfortable with a storm in the Atlantic basin again
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 9:49 am
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:42 am to GetCocky11
quote:
dry air
Not saying there's a correlation but here in Jacksonville we have lower humidity than normal. It's also cooler than normal. 79 degrees and low humidity.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 9:44 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Why do they expect it to weaken when it's going to be passing over warmer water with very little in the way of land masses to disrupt it?
Last NHC advisory I saw keeps the winds strong through the Florida approach, though slowly knocking them back along the way.
Short run there's a chance of a true ERC getting going, probably due to some interaction with the mountains of DR/Haiti messing just a little bit with the inflow and circulation. Might be why she's a little wobbly in direction this morning. Dunno if that's the case, it's just speculation.
Down the line there's a decent chance she starts catching some significant enough shear as she hits the big north to weaken her just as she gets the land interaction. Probably won't spare Miami if they get a direct hit but is an early sign of "good" news for Ga and SC.
Another possibility for a wind speed drop and a pressure drop exists if Irma trades the wind speed for overall size and an ever expanding windfield. With more warm water to come it might be the better way to distribute the energy she picks up. Again, speculative on my part.
I'm of a mind she makes a run at 890s on the final approach at Florida. I'm not so sure if this will actually translate to winds any higher than we see now. Not much history to go on with a storm like Irma. Everyone is learning as we go here, even the NHC geniuses.
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