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rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
11934 posts

Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down


Chad504boy
USA Fan
Member since Feb 2005
120239 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
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This post was edited on 9/8 at 8:00 pm


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538
Dire Wolf
Houston Astros Fan
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
21836 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
I know a lot of people are tired of peej prediction meme but just to be safe, he needs to stay the frick out of this thread


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
37484 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Euro is concerning, to say the least...

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017083012/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_11.png


Still 10 days out, so take it with a grain of salt. Good news is it keeps the gulf low in the Bay of Campeche and appears to send it into Mexico at the end of the run.

ETA- 12z GFS run @ 240 hours:

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017083012/gfs_mslp_uv850_atl_41.png
This post was edited on 8/30 at 2:07 pm


NawlinsTiger9
New Orleans Saints Fan
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
17909 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
"Irma" - classic old lady name. Scares me to death.

I'll use it in a sentence:

Irma shite myself if this storm gets into the gulf.


TDsngumbo
USA Fan
TDsngumbo (R)
Member since Oct 2011
10454 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
I had an Aunt Irma. She was old, couldn't remember shit, and wore a red, curly wig. She died.


Chad504boy
USA Fan
Member since Feb 2005
120239 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
quote:


Still 10 days out, so take it with a grain of salt. Good news is it keeps the gulf low in the Bay of Campeche and appears to send it into Mexico at the end of the run.


yay... bad news is Cat 4 coming underneath FL?


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35
McCaigBro69
Baylor Fan
TigerDroppings Premium Member
Member since Oct 2014
22039 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
quote:

I know a lot of people are tired of peej prediction meme


is it really a meme if the opposite literally happens 90 percent of the time?


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251
LSUsmartass
Pittsburgh Fan
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
78050 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
He can't help it, he'll be here shortly


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
25263 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Not sold on much past 5-7 days.

As rds has said, the models are probably going to struggle with the dynamics over the contential US, and that's going to have a huge hand to determining the final tracks of both systems.


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30
upgrayedd
Lamar Fan
White-manning in metro BR
Member since Mar 2013
65833 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
quote:

"Irma" - classic old lady name. Scares me to death.

I'll use it in a sentence:

Irma shite myself if this storm gets into the gulf.




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115
JetFuelTyga
LSU Fan
Born in desert,raised in lion's den
Member since Feb 2016
1373 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Sorry for your loss. RIP Aunt Irma


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160
Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
25263 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Thanks to skysummit over at stormcastforums for the image.



You'll note the yellows up toward the Carolinas in the image. That's the trough expected to turn Irma back to the east. In this run, Irma misses the trough and keeps running more west. The caveat is there's a lot of uncertainty in the placement, strength, and timing of that trough.


PhilipMarlowe
Texas A&M Fan
Member since Mar 2013
7551 posts
 Online 

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
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This post was edited on 9/7 at 9:56 pm


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1313
dukke v
LSU Fan
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
160867 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
I have zero power on where a storm may go..... if it goes in a different direction than I think it might, that's a power way beyond me....


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
25263 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Based on the early model runs, the words "complex steering pattern" are going to be thrown around a lot in this thread.


rmnldr
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2013
24683 posts
 Online 

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
You're a Wizard, PJ


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161
rt3
LSU Fan
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
52868 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
quote:

Based on the early model runs, the words "complex steering pattern" are going to be thrown around a lot in this thread.

so you're saying there are complex pattern that will steer this storm?


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
37484 posts

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
quote:


I have zero power on where a storm may go..... if it goes in a different direction than I think it might, that's a power way beyond me


You said Harvey wasn't a threat to the US mainland, and it will go down as the costliest natural disaster in US history.

You said the BR flood would be a bust and all time records were shattered.

I'm not saying it's your fault, but it's concerning.


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993
heatom2
LSU Fan
Prairieville
Member since Nov 2010
10447 posts
 Online 

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
I know nothing is certain, but don't storms that form in this area typically curl north?


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