re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

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You literally have ~50 miles of error between total annihilation and maybe surviving it not too bad.

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Yeah, taking the 12z GFS at face-value, it would be plausible to say that the center could remain just offshore. Still really rough, but not the worst of the hurricane. Then again, a path 40-50 miles west takes it on shore.

It is these subtle differences that make forecasting a path so difficult.

figured southern FL would start making a move like this for tomorrow

That model someone just posted if it holds will require us to leave. Problem is that we all have to go nw. Its gets crowded quick.

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Hitting Florida with sub 900 pressure is very bad.

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Still can't really fathom these numbers they're showing. Absolutely insane

atlanta is far enough inland that it should be too too bad. itll get some of the rain bands which will provide stormy weather and have the attached risk of isolated tornadoes. looks like the extended track from the gfs brings the storm passing north of the ATL metro. depending on how fast it weekens theres possibilities for tstorm force winds and such but it doesnt seem like itll be anything overly major.

storm has some kind of northward component to it now

AF309's dropsondes in the middle of the eye:

#3 16.7 N 57.7 W

#6 16.7 N 58.1 W

#7 16.8 N 58.5 W

#9 16.9 N 58.9 W

AF309 dropsonde #9 (it's 4 and I assume final drop this mission) found a pressure of 926 mb at the surface

Bob fricking Breck.....

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Bob Breck WVUE
39 mins ·
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
Irma Stronger, No Turn in Sight...
Irma now has peak winds of 180 mph making her the strongest hurricane EVER in that part of the Atlantic. She is a wind force nightmare and I’m sure we will see crazy videos during the next 5-7 days of building failures. My concern is she continues to march westward at a constant speed. Large hurricanes have difficulty turning with such fast forward motion. Unless she begins to slow down, which is likely, the models trending farther to the west will continue. Several now bring Irma as far west as Mobile. IF that were to happen, all the anxiety over Florida would be for nothing as the main impacts would not affect most of the state. I’m sure many New Orleanians remember Katrina’s track. She was supposed to make the turn and hit Apalachicola, however, she kept going farther to the west so when she did make the turn, it was too late for NOLA. We need to pay attention to make sure Irma makes the turn well before 90 degrees west longitude. RIGHT NOW, it appears the turn will come around 85 degrees west taking Irma just off the west coast of Florida. There remains high UNCERTAINTY as to which side of Florida Irma goes. Just a little change in track (100 miles) will result in huge changes in impacts. IF Irma keeps churning to the west, she will reach the SE Gulf on Sunday. That will be our decision time. There are a couple of things to watch for. IF Irma doesn’t start veering to the WNW, her circulation will go over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, 2 very mountainous Islands. That should disrupt her circulation and weaker her greatly. However, IF she veers slightly to the north of those islands, then her intensity should stay Cat. 4 or 5. Regardless, this is going to be a destructive and probably deadly storm for those who don’t take her seriously. Our cold front still looks on track for late Wednesday and that should block Irma from getting to us. But stranger things have happened. We need to stay up on the progress of Irma and be ready to react if her danger projects farther to the west.

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roadGator

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You're in Jax correct?

You've got the better part of a day or two to make this call. The exact placement of the storm for landfall in Florida is far from certain. It might slide farther west than you think and put you evacuating into worse weather. The GFS solution last posted, you'd certainly want to GTFO.

I'd hate to be in your position trying to make that decision. Get your plans ready to execute now and keep an eye on the progress for the next day or so.