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Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:04 am to LSUsmartass
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:04 am to LSUsmartass
quote:
But it's a run nonetheless, it's not like he's posting some crackhead's twitter prediction. By your own definition, and according the new NHC projected track this morning, the GFS is an outlier run.
No one should be OVERLY concerned with anything past 5 days. That should be the main takeaway with all of these models that are posted.
0
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:04 am to LSUsmartass
quote:He's using the Canadian GEM model, which is far less reliable.
But it's a run nonetheless, it's not like he's posting some crackhead's twitter prediction. By your own definition, and according the new NHC projected track this morning, the GFS is an outlier run.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:05 am to The Egg
What ever happened to all the hurricanes in Hawaii that use to happen on Magnum PI and all those Hollywood movies? Were we hoodwinked?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:06 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Maybe I'm being a little too hyperbolic, but IF that storm gets into the Gulf of Mexico, and on that track to boot, it's going to land somewhere as a Category 5.
At this strength, the depth of warm water is more important than just the surface temperatures. In that regard, the gulf isn't the energy source the run of water just north of the islands going toward Florida are. Last night one of the dropsondes recorded 29C water down 100 m.
I'll pull the image from NOAA once their website isn't moving at a crawl, but it shows the real heat potential is on the run toward Florida more so than even the Gulf of Mexico.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 8:07 am
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:06 am to Homesick Tiger
Hurricane Higgins
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:07 am to slackster
quote:
Hurricanes are pretty much betas when it comes to steering.
Appreciate it.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:08 am to RollTide1987
quote:
No one knows. It's all just guess work at this point. Conventional wisdom dictates that the trough will keep Irma away from Louisiana but conventional wisdom had this thing curving out to sea a long time ago.
None of that is true. Conventional wisdom says these models are shite past 5 days.
5 days ago, this is where the Euro said it would be:
This is where the GFS said it would be:
This is where it was:
There is plenty of speculation in this thread, but for those who are seriously worrying one way or the other, you do yourselves no favors by looking past 5 days.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:10 am to slackster
So 5 day general consensus from the models is Irma sitting off the coast of south Florida correct?
that would be 120z right?
that would be 120z right?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:11 am to dallastiger55
quote:
Sorry if already posted but how far west can this thing go?
The cold front will prevent this from LA/TX, correct?
Unless there is a significant change in the modeling today, the Panhandle seems like the western edge right now. As the trough, that is dragging the cold front through, moves off to the NE it kind of gets rolled and stretched by the ridges (red areas indicating H pressure). That process leaves a small weakness (blue circle) or area of cyclonic steering flow. It would be very hard for Irma to get west of that flow. The weakness would have to end up more north or retrograde off to the NW to open a more western route. It seems like shifts east or more likely than west. With that said, the models still struggle with this kind of a setup and shifts are likely over the next couple of days.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 8:13 am
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:13 am to slackster
quote:
There is plenty of speculation in this thread, but for those who are seriously worrying one way or the other, you do yourselves no favors by looking past 5 days.
I agree with you Slack. However, it's not hard to get nervous when this IS the 5 day track.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:13 am to slackster
quote:
There is plenty of speculation in this thread, but for those who are seriously worrying one way or the other, you do yourselves no favors by looking past 5 days.
So, then by your own admission, one should not "expect" the pull North...as that is not called for in the current 5-day forecast. Therefore, if people along the FL panhandle/AL/MS/LA coasts want to freak out just a little, then they should be able to do so at this point.
One thing that irks me on here are the opposite of the doomsday crew people. If some want to prepare for the absolute fricking worst case imaginable...then let them, as it sure as shite beats the opposite.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:15 am to rds dc
what about the storm behind Irma that no one is talking about...........
Whats up with that one?
Whats up with that one?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:16 am to longhorn22
quote:
what about the storm behind Irma that no one is talking about...........
Whats up with that one?
If I remember from Tropical Tidbits, Irma's outflow is causing some issues for the one behind it.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:18 am to CidCock
quote:
Weird situation. My parents are on the SC coast, so obviously want to keep it way from them.
I'd prefer it turn north and avoid everyone, but a turn to the north sooner than projected isn't good news for SC coast.
As if my desires control the storm....I still don't know what the best case scenario is?
It can be a crap shoot man. You don't wish a storm like this on anyone, and you certainly don't want it in your own area, but unfortunately it's got to land somewhere.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:18 am to rds dc
quote:
Unless there is a significant change in the modeling today, the Panhandle seems like the western edge right now. As the trough, that is dragging the cold front through, moves off to the NE it kind of gets rolled and stretched by the ridges (red areas indicating H pressure). That process leaves a small weakness (blue circle) or area of cyclonic steering flow. It would be very hard for Irma to get west of that flow. The weakness would have to end up more north or retrograde off to the NW to open a more western route. It seems like shifts east or more likely than west. With that said, the models still struggle with this kind of a setup and shifts are likely over the next couple of days.
Quoting to hope everyone reads this breakdown.
We're watching for where the relative weakness between the two ridges opens up. It makes sense it would somewhere in the blue circle rds drew in. The where is still a pretty broad range, but it would require a pretty fundamental change in steering for a significant west shift potential to take hold.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:19 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
If I remember from Tropical Tidbits, Irma's outflow is causing some issues for the one behind it.
He's in her JET WASH!!!
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:20 am to RummelTiger
quote:
One thing that irks me on here are the opposite of the doomsday crew people. If some want to prepare for the absolute fricking worst case imaginable...then let them, as it sure as shite beats the opposite.
Just don't but milk and bread, that stuff will go bad in a few days.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:20 am to slackster
Didnt the Euro runs from late last week put Irma in the GOM west of Tampa?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:20 am to Duke
Just to put into perspective acorrding to the graph here the storm would equal to combining Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia in size when it hits Florida.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:21 am to rds dc
Bunny bread lasts for a long time!
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