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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:54 am to
Posted by HeadedToTheWoods
Sportsman's Paradise
Member since Dec 2013
1296 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:54 am to
Bet it hits Destin. Would be a hell of a front to make it go straight north.
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71030 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:55 am to
Maybe I'm being a little too hyperbolic, but IF that storm gets into the Gulf of Mexico, and on that track to boot, it's going to land somewhere as a Category 5.
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51675 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:55 am to
quote:

Coyote
please stop posting outlier runs. They are not concensus with forecasts and all you are doing is creating confusion and concern where it's currently unnecessary.

As you'll note, the GFS has shifted East and North, not West and South in the latest run. So please wait to post about a panhandle landing until there is a trend that way. Thanks.

Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
79821 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:55 am to
Another question. TWC said hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles. Is that 45 miles from the center of the eye or 45 miles from the eyewall? Is there a graphic that demonstrates how far out the Cat 3-5 winds extend?
Posted by GeneralLeeAwesome
Down the road
Member since Aug 2017
651 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:56 am to
I'm heading to Ft Benning, my brother is stationed there.
Posted by TigerDog83
Member since Oct 2005
8849 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:56 am to
Looks like BVI/Anguilla/St. Martin are going to take a devastating direct hit. BVI and Anguilla are beautiful places with lots of resorts and this could be one of the worst they have had in a long time. We were just thinking about taking a trip back to Virgin Gorda next year but that might be out after this storm depending on the damage.
Posted by TigersHuskers
Nebraska
Member since Oct 2014
15523 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:57 am to
Was just in St Maarten in June
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:57 am to
quote:

Question. Has a powerful storm like this ever hooked and held together long enough to cross the Atlantic and hit Spain or England?



England and Spain have both been hit by storms, but they're usually sub-tropical at that point.
Posted by More beer please
Member since Feb 2010
46507 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:57 am to
What wind speeds might those leeward islands get?
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11005 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:58 am to
quote:

BVI/Anguilla/St. Martin


I don't remember, do they send TWC reporters (Cantori etc.) to places outside the US?
Posted by ihometiger
Member since Dec 2013
12475 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:58 am to
quote:

Hurricanes are pretty much betas when it comes to steering. They're controlled by strength or weaknesses in high pressure.


Its always been my understanding that when a Hurricane gets to a certain strength & size that it become much less dependent on pressure steering it as it becomes its own steering system.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:58 am to
quote:

Looks like BVI/Anguilla/St. Martin are going to take a devastating direct hit. BVI and Anguilla are beautiful places with lots of resorts and this could be one of the worst they have had in a long time. We were just thinking about taking a trip back to Virgin Gorda next year but that might be out after this storm depending on the damage.




I'm supposed to be going to Peter Island in the BVI in the spring. We'll see how that goes.
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82738 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:59 am to
quote:

please stop posting outlier runs. They are not concensus with forecasts and all you are doing is creating confusion and concern where it's currently unnecessary.

But it's a run nonetheless, it's not like he's posting some crackhead's twitter prediction. By your own definition, and according the new NHC projected track this morning, the GFS is an outlier run.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 8:01 am
Posted by dallastiger55
Jennings, LA
Member since Jan 2010
34135 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 7:59 am to
Sorry if already posted but how far west can this thing go?

The cold front will prevent this from LA/TX, correct?
Posted by Floating Change Up
Member since Dec 2013
13018 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:01 am to
Damn. Andros, Bahamas got hit hard last year. Looks like it will take another hit this year.
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:01 am to
Was reading up on that the other day.

Very rarely does anything strong hit over there, but Spain did have a category 1 hurricane make landfall like in the last 20-30 years, I believe.
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93578 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:01 am to
quote:

8:00AM official forecast


That sucks.
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71030 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:01 am to
quote:

Sorry if already posted but how far west can this thing go?

The cold front will prevent this from LA/TX, correct?



No one knows. It's all just guess work at this point. Conventional wisdom dictates that the trough will keep Irma away from Louisiana but conventional wisdom had this thing curving out to sea a long time ago.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 8:02 am
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:02 am to
quote:

Its always been my understanding that when a Hurricane gets to a certain strength & size that it become much less dependent on pressure steering it as it becomes its own steering system.



I used to believe that too, but from what I understand now, that is not the case.
Posted by The Egg
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2004
83706 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:02 am to
damn few things in nature look more menacing or impressive than a cat 5 storm at its peak strength.
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