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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:32 am to RummelTiger
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:32 am to RummelTiger
Whiskey and pretzels*
0
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:32 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I don't know that Jeff will want to mess with the eyewall of this thing after what he went through with Harvey. After Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com went through the eyewall of Charley in 2004, I think he decided against ever going through it again.
Man I watched that periscope live and after he made it through the NE eyewall, I needed a cigarette. I've never smoked a day in my life.
There is absolutely no way I would ever put myself through that willingly.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:32 am to dallastiger55
quote:
Has Disneyworld ever experienced bad hurricane damage? Doesn't look good for it
Disney is built lile a bomb shelter. They have their own power grid on campus that supplies just the resorts, wiring is encased in conctrete...i know people lasy year that went to Disney as their evac plan f4om Jax.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:33 am to RummelTiger
quote:I am so used to freaking out when I see em roll into the Gulf south of FL. It is hard to just trust anything. I dont know what I can do about it. Gas the generator up, and hang on.
Okay, but you are living and dying on the models...which are not 100%. I mean, Hell, even they have to give themselves a cone for +/- accuracy. While some here are new to this
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:34 am to Tiger in NY
Jim Cantore is headed to South Beach. :smh: as he doesn't have the balls to sit in Islamorada.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:34 am to RummelTiger
quote:
Okay, but you are living and dying on the models...which are not 100%. I mean, Hell, even they have to give themselves a cone for +/- accuracy. While some here are new to this...there are a lot of people here that are not, and they've seen hurricanes outsmart models many times, so maybe cut some of them some slack when they don't want to buy model context.
I just want speculation to be clear that it is speculation. I'm not trying to be a dick about it, but the US mainland is currently in the 5-day track, and this thread is only going to blow up more as it gets closer.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:34 am to jlc05
quote:
Bunny bread lasts for a long time!
The Twinkie of breads
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:35 am to b-rab2
quote:
Since it looks like its shifting west, if you're in south beach would you evacuate? I have a flight scheduled for tomorrow at 2:30 PM but Id rather stay if its not gonna be horrible here. Im in a really big,safe building, but its ocean front. It keeps shifting west, would you leave?
I'm not going to give you a suggestion on what to do, as that is your call, nor can I say for any certainty exactly what the impacts will be in any given place. That being said, I myself would not stay in South Beach. Even if there is a chance it might miss me, this thing is such a monster, that I wouldn't be willing to bet on slight differences in the potential path.
Again, don't take that as a suggestion of what you should do, that's just how I would look at it if I were in south Florida.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:35 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:Yeah, he may want to just take his 10 minutes and enjoy em.
I don't know that Jeff will want to mess with the eyewall of this thing
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:35 am to tigerfoot
quote:
I am so used to freaking out when I see em roll into the Gulf south of FL. It is hard to just trust anything. I dont know what I can do about it. Gas the generator up, and hang on.
I think this is very fair. A hurricane in the Florida Straits is concerning for the GOM, even if it is forecasted to essentially track immediately north from there.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:36 am to tigerfoot
This is....gross.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:39 am to The Egg
quote:
damn few things in nature look more menacing or impressive than a cat 5 storm at its peak strength.
"Awesome" weather has turned me into a disaster junkie.
Awesome as in "great and terrible" - Anything that looks like it would commission Spirograph to create its wind portrait.
If something gets rated a "Strong 3" and above - hurricane and tornado alike - This will consume a high percentage of my attention for the duration. The percentage increases inversely with proximity to myself or those I care about.
The tornado equivalent of hurricanes like this are the fast rotating angry ones with horizontal vortices (like Tuscaloosa)... or the massive converging multi-vortex wedge ones.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:39 am to OldSouth
Looks like it just visited New Orleans for the Decadence Festival because its not tight anymore.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:39 am to ihometiger
quote:
Islamorada.
in my prayers this awesome town doesnt get destroyed!
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:40 am to b-rab2
quote:
I have a flight scheduled for tomorrow at 2:30 PM but Id rather stay if its not gonna be horrible here. Im in a really big,safe building, but its ocean front. It keeps shifting west, would you leave?
I would get out. South Beach is only around, I'd guess 150 mi of where the eye wall/ core action will pass, and any slight wobble, being in that NE quadrant would be rough
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:42 am to LaBR4
b-rab google jeff periscope harvey.
If you think you can get through that or worse, stay.
Otherwise, id be making plans.
If you think you can get through that or worse, stay.
Otherwise, id be making plans.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:43 am to 50_Tiger
AF309 has dropped 2 dropsondes into the eye of Irma this run... has found low pressures of 930 & 931 mb
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:44 am to RummelTiger
quote:
While some here are new to this...there are a lot of people here that are not, and they've seen hurricanes outsmart models many times, so maybe cut some of them some slack when they don't want to buy model context.
The logic driving a big turn north is sound based on how they all develope the steering. Haven't seen a model or ensamble package not turn it north at some point. Looking for reasons it won't is ignoring the evidence all of our best forecasting tools are showing us. Not that getting hurricane supplies is a bad idea if you're in La, the season is far from over.
There's still a large range of possibilities with the question of where the turn happens with Destin to missing the east coast completely in the spread. I wouldn't trust models in terms of a particular landfall location but there's little reason to doubt the general idea of a hard North turn at this point in time.
I do think all need to remember we're talking about possibilities and not certainties when doing the model watching.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:46 am to Duke
NW eyewall has ~ 140 mph winds at the surface
~180 mph winds at 1,045 ft up
~180 mph winds at 1,045 ft up
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:47 am to Duke
How well did the models perform with Katrina?
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