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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:52 am to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:52 am to
dropsonde says 947 mb at the surface of the eye

ETA: that's 15 mb lower than what's in the 10 AM advisory
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 10:53 am
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:52 am to


For those at home, 119 kts is 136 mph at the surface, once those flight level winds come down its easily a cat 5...
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 10:53 am
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
79859 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:52 am to
I realize it's asking about something far in the future, but will the feature that is keeping Isaac moving almost due west going to remain possibly driving it into central America or is their some edge that it'll hit eventually, allowing to ride up N or NW?
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102576 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:53 am to
Florence a Cat 3. Is still tracking due west and picked up speed to 13 mph
Posted by RolltidePA
North Carolina
Member since Dec 2010
5594 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:53 am to
quote:

I think we need an official Anal Pucker Factor rating for the Carolinas.



I live in Raleigh and our pucker factor is about an 8 right now...
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166934 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:53 am to


quote:

What sucks about that is that NC is basically going to have hurricane force winds for 24+ hours and feet of rain in a good portion of the state.

Lots of bad juju headed that way.
If I read the total rainfall predictions that someone posted a euro graphic for; SC is going to get a crap ton of rainfall.

GA looks like a good evac place as of now...
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30508 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:54 am to
quote:

dropsonde says 947 mb at the surface of the eye

ETA: that's 15 mb lower than what's in the 10 AM advisory


Jesus...
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:54 am to
quote:

good God, so almost a 5 now


nvm skipped the flight level part. still scary.

yeah 131 kts would be 150 mph

but it's got to get to the surface for it to officially be that

let's see what the dropsondes say at the surface
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
46359 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:54 am to
quote:

I hope no one in that thing's path try and ride it out. It is absolutely not worth it.


The aftermath will be horrible, no power and roads for a long time regardless of how the property makes it through the storm. Limited food and water. Don't put yourself through that, just leave.
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 10:55 am
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:54 am to


Drops are confirming the look on imagery.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:54 am to
Pretty sure none of the models predicted this besides HMON
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:55 am to
quote:

Pretty sure none of the models predicted this besides HMON

even crazy arse HWRF???
Posted by CarolinaGamecock99
Member since Apr 2015
24816 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:55 am to
That’s a bad hombre
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:57 am to
not very familiar with the topography of that area in the path...are there any fears of mud slides and flash floods further inland?
Posted by DeCat ODahouse
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2017
1673 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:57 am to


This graphic of the eye that rds posted on a previous page is mesmerizing and not in a good way. I feel like I'm playing a flute for cobra.

Still, really appreciate the window on storm, rds.
Posted by Thracken13
Aft Cargo Hold of Serenity
Member since Feb 2010
18841 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:58 am to
I was supposed to go to Greensboro, NC next week - no way in hell it is happening now.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:58 am to
at 6,400 feet up the pressure is 850 mb

pressure will NEVER get that low at the surface
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:58 am to
GFS is running now for those interested.
Posted by Bruco
Charlotte, NC
Member since Aug 2016
3025 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 10:58 am to
quote:

live in Raleigh and our pucker factor is about an 8 right now...


Charlotte pucker factor at 6 but accelerating quickly. Seems like most people weren’t paying attention over the weekend but some eyes are being opened now.
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
87289 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:00 am to
Supposedly a view from the space station (via our Atlanta weather folks at WSB)

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