re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

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Yep. SC governor set of a chain of panic by announcing a mandatory evac on Sunday. Georgia governor then felt he had to as well so he announced it via twitter at 1015 Sunday night blindsiding all the counties that were preparing in an orderly manner.

Now we've had people on mandatory evacuation since noon yesterday and the storm is still two days away.

Just got done walking the dogs and teaching my 3 year old how to ride a bike in the street. Sending pics to all the pussies who left two days ago asking for prayers in the evac zone.

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"BeTtEr SaFe ThAn SoRrY"

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Cantore found a place in Stuart, FL where he could put on his swim goggles. Pathetic

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Someone should go stand behind him with a sign that says Jim Cantore and TWC is Fake News!

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Yes but there are procedures. You don't just announce a mandatory evac via Twitter at 1015 at night when counties and cities have detailed plans.

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I know, it was sarcasm. I agree with you 100%.

A poster on Reddit said that this is the least amount of people he's seen evacuate from his neighborhood since this has happened once a year the past few years.

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I think it’s too late for Paul to try that anyway.

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Indeed.

I assume the people acting as though Paul Allen is still alive are joking, but I'm not sure why.

He probably thinks they're talking about the poster who uses that name...

Tropical Storm Fernand has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It will drift into Mexico later this week.

It's sad the NWS is so desperate for relevance that it declared that line of thunderstorms a tropical storm.

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It's sad the NWS is so desperate for relevance that it declared that line of thunderstorms a tropical storm.

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One of the dumbest statements in this thread. If it meets their criteria, it meets it. If they were trying to gain relevance, which the National Hurricane Center is already pretty relevant, they'd forecasted it hitting Houston or New Orleans. If they believe that there will be tropical storm conditions from this system, it is their responsibility to name the storm and put out the relevant watches and warnings. And, to be honest, they have a thousands of times more knowledge than you do about tropical cyclones, so I think I will go with their view over yours.

This was the discussion when they declared it a tropical depression, which explains their reasoning:

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Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the
low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better
defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to
be designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt
is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 260/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern
United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward
to west-northwestward through its lifetime. The new forecast track
is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the
center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h.
The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous
track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to
south Texas.

Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the
cyclone moves into Mexico. However, the broad and large nature of
the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before
landfall. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before
reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico
by 72 h.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 23.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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