re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

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This thing isn't gonna affect the US one bit except for premature doomsday predictions from certain higher ups that got everyone in a tizzy for no fricking reason.

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I'd feel more secure if Peej hadn't posted what he posted.

Haven't seen many reports at all from the outer Cays like Treasure, Great Guana, etc. Hopetown got destroyed as well as Marsh Harbour clearly. Terrible situation for Abaco.

From ABC's Marcus Moore who sent this to ABC to give his status report.

March Harbour Boatyards on Stede Bonnet Road

What a waste of time and money. Every year it’s even more of a joke.

quote:

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Major Hurricane Dorian - Hurricane Warning for Portions of Florida

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It’s a Cat 2.

LOL.

I would say Publix is loving this but they were dumb enough to shut most of their stores down yesterday. I guess they figured every one bought everything already so might as well take some time off.

One day we are gonna rocked and people will be caught off guard because of the dumb sensationalism.

Elbow Cay


Hopetown Harbour Lodge

Core looks to have filled in on the west side, as expected. Starting to move away from all the cold water Dorian stirred up.



A few notes.

You can see some dry air come in at Dorian's west side. Likely aided in the weakening trend we've seen. Additionally, you can see the outflow start really filling in toward the north of Dorian. That is showing the push north is definitely there, as seen by the fact he's fricking moving.

Let's look at some recon data.

This is from the pass near peak strength:

173930 2640N 07713W 6966 02820 9699 +079 +025 033127 131 118 030 03
174000 2639N 07712W 6976 02741 9635 +071 +026 034143 147 144 052 00
174030 2638N 07711W 6953 02679 9527 +085 +027 034143 146 166 047 00
174100 2638N 07709W 6986 02564 9427 +097 +029 035131 145 170 022 03
174130 2637N 07708W 6974 02505 9314 +133 +032 036102 117 155 000 03
174200 2636N 07707W 6975 02428 9191 +187 +033 035075 096 122 000 03
174230 2636N 07705W 6972 02389 9123 +220 +035 042038 059 078 008 03
174300 2634N 07703W 6965 02380 9092 +234 +041 062007 026 052 002 03
174330 2633N 07702W 6969 02383 9110 +219 +045 237021 025 058 005 03

That's a rapid drop in pressure, showing how tightly wound the core of Dorian was.

From the plane in there currently:

032600 2652N 07827W 6974 02701 9499 +144 +140 014022 026 025 001 00
032630 2652N 07827W 6974 02701 9500 +144 +134 014023 027 025 001 0
032700 2652N 07836W 6967 02741 9531 +146 +135 013058 062 025 001 03
032730 2652N 07838W 6970 02757 9551 +146 +131 013068 074 /// /// 03
032800 2652N 07840W 6968 02783 9575 +147 +130 011082 086 /// /// 03
032830 2652N 07841W 6967 02812 9595 +158 +105 010094 097 /// /// 03
032900 2653N 07843W 6966 02835 9625 +157 +080 009095 097 /// /// 03
032930 2653N 07844W 6962 02862 9661 +143 +093 011093 094 /// /// 03
033000 2654N 07846W 6963 02880 9691 +135 +106 012091 092 082 000 03
033030 2654N 07848W 6967 02892 9711 +130 +116 014090 091 083 001 00
033100 2655N 07849W 6969 02904 9732 +123 +121 013093 094 081 002 01
033130 2655N 07851W 6961 02930 9749 +123 +116 015092 094 078 004 00
033200 2656N 07853W 6974 02932 9773 +123 +113 011087 090 078 004 00
033230 2656N 07855W 6953 02969 9781 +128 +100 012087 088 077 004 00
033300 2657N 07856W 6974 02963 9800 +130 +085 011091 092 075 002 00
033330 2657N 07858W 6961 02987 9821 +121 +089 010091 092 071 004 00
033400 2657N 07900W 6959 02998 9847 +104 +101 016085 089 059 004 00
033430 2658N 07901W 6965 03000 9873 +101 //// 026084 084 066 006 01
033500 2658N 07903W 6973 03002 9886 +100 //// 023081 084 066 006 01
033530 2659N 07905W 6974 03014 9893 +100 //// 020078 079 059 005 01
033600 2659N 07907W 6966 03031 9898 +099 +095 018072 076 058 002 00

Readings taken roughly every 30 seconds for both. At peak strength, there were drops of about 10 mb/reading. Today, it's more like 2 mb/reading. The inner core has wound down substaintially. Serves to spread the wind field out, but is going to make it difficult to contract it substantially for the small window of strengthening that's there this afternoon.

Means that SC/NC will see worse weather than if he made the same approach at the strength he was on Sunday but also the max wind potential is substantially reduced.

Finally on path, the steering looks basically as expected.



NHC path looks to be pretty much correct. Some potential to end up a little left and brush SC and the OBX are likely to get brushed by the core on his final gasp as a tropical system before what will be an interesting transition to extratropical as Dorian races off past the NE coast.