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Started By
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4
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:56 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
The wishcasters on 2k are dancing around this continual westward push fire atm.
Cat 5 to Miami. Get hype baw!
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:56 am to 50_Tiger
I would hope people are not relaxing along Florida just because in recent runs it's showing it missing them. Of course we hope it doesn't do that but the possibility is still there unfortunately.
Best case is it misses everyone which is also a possibility. If other models start picking up on a stronger ridge I'd start to worry.
Best case is it misses everyone which is also a possibility. If other models start picking up on a stronger ridge I'd start to worry.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:59 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
continual westward push
It has been pretty minor, so far in the modeling, from 00z to 12z. It's hard to imagine that there is a whole lot of room for westward shifts in the modeling given the time range but there will always be some bouncing around. Minor westward shifts could make it hard for this to miss the Carolinas but the system should be weakening by that point.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:00 am to deuce985
Of course we are relaxing. It’s a holiday weekend. Everyone seems to be prepared. Nothing to do but hang out and enjoy the weekend for now.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:02 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Headed towards Florida
May end up that a lot of prayers are answered. What a huge relief if this ends up as a fish
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:04 am to jlc05
quote:
TWC is hoping for a Cat 5
Starting June 1st if not earlier. Everybody rags out Cantore but I think Mike Seidel gets off more on the hoping for doom and gloom.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:10 am to rds dc
Pretty big westward shift on the old GFS, that probably points to a shift coming on the GEFS, since it is still run on the old core and not the FV3.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:18 am to deuce985
This is a note of caution that puts it into perspective:
Tropical Tidbits Twitter:
"Weak steering currents & stalling storms should never be trusted.
With 72 hours before Dorian turns north, even a 1 mph error in the storm's speed until then could result in a 72 mile error in how far west Dorian gets.
Stay vigilant. More changes could occur. It's a tough one."
Tropical Tidbits Twitter:
"Weak steering currents & stalling storms should never be trusted.
With 72 hours before Dorian turns north, even a 1 mph error in the storm's speed until then could result in a 72 mile error in how far west Dorian gets.
Stay vigilant. More changes could occur. It's a tough one."
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 11:19 am
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:21 am to rds dc
quote:
Pretty big westward shift on the old GFS, that probably points to a shift coming on the GEFS, since it is still run on the old core and not the FV3.
Wasn’t the old GFS one of the leaders of the pack with the eastward shift? If so, you have to wonder if it is kicking off a westward trend.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:22 am to rds dc
Will probably miss the U.S. now
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:23 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
It looks like IF it even impacts the U.S. it'll be the outer banks
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:24 am to deuce985
quote:
I would hope people are not relaxing along Florida just because in recent runs it's showing it missing them.
Not around here (central FL). My post on pg 126: "NOBODY is "standing down" just yet."
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 11:25 am
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:24 am to thesoccerfanjax
I meant more that people were not getting prepared and not taking it seriously 
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:30 am to deuce985
quote:
I would hope people are not relaxing along Florida just because in recent runs it's showing it missing them. Of course we hope it doesn't do that but the possibility is still there unfortunately.
Relaxing because we did everything yesterday. Got nothing else to do but shutter the front door
There aren’t nearly the lines for gas today. Everything looks pretty normal driving around northern PBC.
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 11:31 am
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:36 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Wasn’t the old GFS one of the leaders of the pack with the eastward shift? If so, you have to wonder if it is kicking off a westward trend.
I haven't been tracking it but was curious what it would do at 12z, since the GEFS has been trending eastward. In the very short term, 26N 74W is the point to watch.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:54 am to rds dc
Dems were really hoping for this to hit a battleground state so that could create a FEMA crisis.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:55 am to Hangit
quote:
The first lady of Florida is an absolute smoke show. He should have her there.
Yes, yes she is. I said the same thing.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:55 am to OmniPundit
quote:
Not around here
The current wind map is showing you will get 40-50 sustained, with gusts a little higher. That is if it turns later. You've got that, standing on one foot.
Wind map
Posted on 8/31/19 at 11:56 am to Duke
This thing is starting to look as bad as Barry.
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