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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:19 am to OmniPundit
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:19 am to OmniPundit
quote:
Thanks. I'm sitting here in The Villages, FL. Most around here have done what they can to prepare had the earlier forecasts held; NOBODY is "standing down" just yet.
as a fellow resident of the Gulf coast (albeit, at least a little inland...), just wanna say be safe...
the latest models look much more favorable for y'all vs. what i was seeing everywhere yesterday... every little bit east helps, at this point...
0
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:20 am to biggsc
quote:
Sorry man but this says differently but no problem
I dug a little further and there are tons of sources saying both. I now hate them all, as they are denying me the stability I need at a time like this.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:20 am to rds dc
While I don't consider the ICON to be a worthwhile model, it did shift south a good bit on the 12z run. This is only interesting since some of the 06z ensemble runs showed a bit of a tendency to shift south & west.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:23 am to Hangit
quote:
Any idea where?
Great Abaco.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:28 am to Duke
quote:
Great Abaco.
Beautiful scenery but totally screwed at this point. The surge could take you out even if you are in a well built structure. Total devastation is coming.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:31 am to Hangit
TWC just said no one knows what Dorian is going to do (track)
Nash Roberts would know
Nash Roberts would know
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:31 am to rds dc
Hmmm, 12z GFS initialized with a stronger ridge over the top than what the 06z showed for 12z. Now to see if it makes any difference in the longer term.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:34 am to jlc05
quote:
TWC just said no one knows what Dorian is going to do (track)
‘However that won’t stop us from #Hype’
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:36 am to rds dc
RDS is that good or bad?? Your hmmmmm puzzled me. I’m feeling awful for the poor people of the Bahamas.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:37 am to jlc05
quote:
TWC just said no one knows what Dorian is going to do (track)
"Looks like no US landfall, but we won't say that so we can continue to hype this thing."
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:38 am to jlc05
quote:
Nash Roberts would know
Nash and his sharpie had this great thing going
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:38 am to GetCocky11
TWC is hoping for a Cat 5
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:40 am to tiger91
quote:
RDS is that good or bad?? Your hmmmmm puzzled me. I’m feeling awful for the poor people of the Bahamas.
if I did well on my TD weather exam... I believe a stronger ridge could mean a push back towards the west
but right now it's just 1 model run... gotta look for that to become consistent before any forecast track puts the storm back on Florida's shores
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 10:41 am
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:40 am to rds dc
greater look at atlantic if anyone hasn't seen it yet just to be aware
quote:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located a few hundred miles east of the northwestern Bahamas.
1. A tropical wave located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. A broad area of low pressure located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves slowly westward across the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 10:49 am
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:41 am to rt3
Take this how you want but I hope you flunked. Lol.
Seriously thanks for the explanation.
Seriously thanks for the explanation.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:42 am to tiger91
quote:
Take this how you want but I hope you flunked. Lol.
I probably did
but hey... Cs get degrees
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:44 am to deuce985
quote:
greater look at atlantic if anyone hasn't seen it yet just to be aware
I could say something but I don’t want to get banned
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:50 am to rt3
quote:
I believe a stronger ridge could mean a push back towards the west
Yep.
Depends on how it breaks down for the long term but suggests Dorian might get a little farther west. There's still a lot of uncertainty on the track.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:51 am to tiger91
quote:
good or bad??
Hard to say long term, but anything that allows Dorian to move farther north in the short term would be good. A stronger ridge would keep it moving westward or even SW. This will play a role in where the slow down occurs.
This run does shift the system SW a bit but it is hard to pin that on any one thing without doing a deeper dive into the data.
Posted on 8/31/19 at 10:51 am to rds dc
Yep, a stronger ridge could change the whole game. That’s going to be one of the main things to watch.
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