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re: Here's why the country is freaking out and under virtual lock down - mathematical reason
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:20 am to tgr4ever
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:20 am to tgr4ever
What about the stupid fricking President who called this virus a hoax? Lets start with him when it comes to holding people accountable.
Can’t believe Trump torpedoed his own re-election chances by not taking this virus seriously. He can’t hide behind Pence forever
Can’t believe Trump torpedoed his own re-election chances by not taking this virus seriously. He can’t hide behind Pence forever
1
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:21 am to CapperVin
He said being blamed for it was a hoax. Not the virus itself. You’ve been fake newsed.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:23 am to TH03
quote:
All you morons on both sides have to politicize everything then us normal people are sitting here annoyed af
Oh shut up Karen.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:23 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Ah the ole "I'm not affected by this" while defending draconian measures
I said I understand the reasons but literally said I believe some to be an over reaction.
quote:
You'll be more affected by the over the top reactions than you will the virus
Yeah. I know.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:25 am to RogerTheShrubber
The hysteria surrounding this is going to make things worse. That’s what worrying me too.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:26 am to Crowknowsbest
quote:
This may sound callous, but I think it’s reasonable to discuss just how restrictive we want to be as a society in response to a virus that most drastically impacts the elderly and already unhealthy. People also die when the global economy collapses, even without a new virus.
It's reasonable to discuss. But factor in that if things spiral out of control, you could potentially see even more devastating economic impacts to try and fix a bigger problem.
Unfortunately, all we really know is that a pretty contagious virus with a .6% to 3ish% mortality rate is spreading quickly. We have no data on which to base the idea that it will burn out naturally without major efforts to see that occur. The places we're looking to as guides have all implemented pretty unprecedented efforts to halt transmissions.
I'd love to have a reason to say that we can expect only a few thousand deaths if we do nothing other than wash our hands, but statistically, there is no basis for a conclusion like that.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:40 am to Pettifogger
quote:
But I am baffled by those who are absolutely convinced they're correct, and frustrated by those who continue to use inapplicable/bad info to make arguments on that basis.
This cuts both ways. People using the reported mortality rate from confirmed cases are ignoring the fact that a very small fraction of the infected have been confirmed.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:41 am to Pettifogger
quote:
But factor in that if things spiral out of control, you could potentially see even more devastating economic impacts to try and fix a bigger problem.
Maybe. I don’t have a problem with the measures enacted so far (but would like to see those taking the brunt of the hit on our behalf be reimbursed somehow).
However, taking things further by doing things like mandating people stay in their homes, shutting down international or interstate commerce, quarantining major cities, etc. could cause damage greater than even pessimistic predictions for this virus. All of a sudden you have masses of people not collecting paychecks, food shortages, etc., not to mention severe damage done to people’s’ retirement, savings, etc.
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 10:43 am
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:46 am to Street Hawk
Basically since China ruled their people with an iron fist and killed off the sickly, its amazing how the virus has sort of dwindled and is plateauing
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:47 am to Street Hawk
I wonder why we don’t have numbers for Mexico. As we all know we have a lot of folks coming in daily. And this is why you haft to lock the borders.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:47 am to ConservativeBamaFan
Haft to
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:49 am to Pettifogger
So in 2017 we had
+600,000 die of heart disease
600,000 die of cancer
170,000 chronic respiratory disease
70,000 or so from flu/pneumonia
Adding 20k people dying doesn't really sound like that much does it? Now imagine this.... most of that 20k people have a great chance of being in one of the other causes of death anyway.
I'm not saying I WANT people to die. But it's part of everyday life. So telling everyone that their grandparents are as good as dead really is hysterical response like we've seen so far in this thread. I still believe if it wasn't an election year where the media was trying everything in their power to unseat the President, then it wouldn't be near as hyped.
They had to do something to shut down this economy and it's the perfect reason. Wash your hands and don't visit the elderly unless you Somewhat decontaminate yourself. Also don't visit the doctor for little trivial things. Especially for unnecessary well check visits.
+600,000 die of heart disease
600,000 die of cancer
170,000 chronic respiratory disease
70,000 or so from flu/pneumonia
Adding 20k people dying doesn't really sound like that much does it? Now imagine this.... most of that 20k people have a great chance of being in one of the other causes of death anyway.
I'm not saying I WANT people to die. But it's part of everyday life. So telling everyone that their grandparents are as good as dead really is hysterical response like we've seen so far in this thread. I still believe if it wasn't an election year where the media was trying everything in their power to unseat the President, then it wouldn't be near as hyped.
They had to do something to shut down this economy and it's the perfect reason. Wash your hands and don't visit the elderly unless you Somewhat decontaminate yourself. Also don't visit the doctor for little trivial things. Especially for unnecessary well check visits.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:49 am to Crowknowsbest
quote:
Maybe. I don’t have a problem with the measures enacted so far (but would like to see those taking the brunt of the hit on our behalf be reimbursed somehow).
Agree. I'm a small government guy but this is precisely what government is for.
quote:
However, taking things further by doing things like mandating people stay in their homes, shutting down international or interstate commerce, quarantining major cities, etc. could cause damage greater than even pessimistic predictions for this virus. All of a sudden you have masses of people not collecting paychecks, food shortages, etc., not to mention severe damage done to people’s’ retirement, savings, etc.
Agree, and I think that's what we're trying to avoid. Our population density is much lower than many of the places we're watching, so I'm optimistic less severe measures will be required. Cancellation of major events will probably also have the benefit of reinforcing that this is "serious" to the type of people who would never watch the news or a Presidential address or go to the CDC website. Getting those people to go "maybe we shouldn't go to the party this weekend" is probably a plus.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:50 am to Street Hawk
@ the 49 people, and counting, that downvoted OP. Posted on 3/12/20 at 10:56 am to ConservativeBamaFan
quote:
I wonder why we don’t have numbers for Mexico
I'm sure they have some but they also have weather that is less conducive to the spread of viruses. Same reason Thailand, Vietnam, and the rest of SE Asia don't have the outbreaks that colder less humid places do
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:12 am to fightin tigers
You get it running through hospital employees and the system will crumble
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:26 am to PhilipMarlowe
quote:
@ the 49 people, and counting, that downvoted OP.
at the 183 people that upvoted OP and think there are going to be 1 million confirmed cases of the Corona in the US based off his "math".Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:35 am to tgr4ever
quote:
I think you have the ability to look at these numbers and statistics and realize whats going on.
How can you extrapolate anything from those numbers with widely varying mortality and infection rates across the world?
Germany has 1,966+ cases and 3 deaths (about 0.15%) Where as Italy is it 12,000+ and 827 deaths (6.6% mortality)
I mean this what another person wrote.
quote:
For example, there were 100 cases last week. Now there are 1,000. Next week, we should expect ~10,000 cases. Two weeks from now, ~100,000. By the end of the month, if the growth rate remains constant, we'll see at least a million (!) new cases
Makes about as much sense, correct?
Posted on 3/12/20 at 12:11 pm to TeddyPadillac
Just an FYI, both are accurate. The previous list shows the total number of cases and yours shows the number of new cases.
The first chart only shows the last doubling period. It should show the previous doubling period as well which would indicate whether that doubling period is increasing (fewer new cases) or decreasing (more new cases).
That being said, South Korea is a great example of how the transmission of the virus can be mitigated with proper protocols and testing in place. They are testing 10k people per day. The US as of now has tested 10k people total. If you don't know where the virus has spread, you don't have information needed to plan effective containment/mitigation strategies.
The first chart only shows the last doubling period. It should show the previous doubling period as well which would indicate whether that doubling period is increasing (fewer new cases) or decreasing (more new cases).
That being said, South Korea is a great example of how the transmission of the virus can be mitigated with proper protocols and testing in place. They are testing 10k people per day. The US as of now has tested 10k people total. If you don't know where the virus has spread, you don't have information needed to plan effective containment/mitigation strategies.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 12:57 pm to Hulkklogan
Oh gee that's great push their asses to the very limit and then offer them crumbs.
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