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re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:04 am to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21526 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:04 am to
quote:

Meteorologist fight!


Nah. Just different views of the same data. If things trend toward the 12z GFS, then you can throw all the analysis up to this point
Posted by moontigr
Dark Side of the Moon
Member since Nov 2020
7589 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:06 am to
quote:

Hoping I’m on the east side.


Why? The east gets the worst of it
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
42365 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:06 am to
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
182389 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:06 am to
quote:

Yep. I'm willing to bet it shifts farther East in subsequent model runs.


Can we get it to stay out of Louisiana all together and save our insurance premiums? I am going to pray to eight-pound, six ounce, newborn infant Jesus.


This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 11:10 am
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:07 am to
quote:

This GFS run would be Gustav 2.0 for Baton Rouge.

I guess it’s a good thing we are in the crosshairs 5 days out
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
44902 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:07 am to
A lot of this is the models trying to save face for a disaster of a preseason forecast.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40230 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:08 am to
From rds a couple of pages back:


The system will interact with a trough moving out of Texas, and the heaviest rainfall will occur along and west of the path. Those on the eastern side might not see much to be concerned about.


This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 11:09 am
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:08 am to
That’s 3.5 days buddy. Models are damn good at that range
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177328 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:10 am to
quote:

That’s 3.5 days buddy. Models are damn good at that range

They were off bigger than Stephanie Abrams’ tits for Beryl
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134913 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:13 am to
quote:

This GFS run would be Gustav 2.0 for Baton Rouge.
quote:

TDsngumbo
Your obvious wishcasting is obvious.
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
39929 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:14 am to
Looks like Atchafalaya Bay as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane per the latest GFS run
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102725 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:15 am to
That’s a spicy meatball
Posted by diat150
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2005
47807 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:16 am to
I am flying out of Houston Thursday morning. Should I be worried?
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
42365 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:16 am to
quote:

They were off bigger than Stephanie Abrams’ tits for Beryl


Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102725 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:17 am to
Um a 957 mb is a Cat 3
Posted by bnmathm
Member since Nov 2007
69 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:18 am to
quote:

Looks like Atchafalaya Bay as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane per the latest GFS run



eh i'm seeing 957mb which is a cat 3
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216469 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:20 am to
Yup. Those are rather large. But the rest of her body is
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
42365 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:20 am to
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
39929 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:22 am to
Looking at the Moe FSU site and the latest the European and GFS runs have it at minimal
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
42365 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:23 am to
What do you think about the storm surge with a major coming in at that angle?

I know it's bad regardless, but I think that angle makes it worse.
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