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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:26 am to VCeagle2013
I wish we knew where the center is actually going to be initialized.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:26 am to LSURussian
Stating a fact is wishcasting? Maybe I don’t know what wishcasting is then.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:30 am to deltaland
quote:
Um a 957 mb is a Cat 3
It shows 968 mb right upon landing which is a strong cat 2 correct?
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:30 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
TDsngumbo
You wish casted Ida with that tree
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:36 am to rds dc
Isn’t it time for a new thread about this one and a sticky?
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:39 am to notiger1997
Recon just took off from Kessler
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:39 am to rds dc
quote:
Now, there is always the outside chance that the trough is slower and takes on a negative tilt....
Don't you tease me by using language you know is mostly reserved for storms with ground under them.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:40 am to TDsngumbo
quote:You saying this storm is going to be Gustav 2.0 and it's going to shred trees in Baton Rouge are not facts. Those are your hopeful opinions.
Stating a fact is wishcasting?
The "facts" are the projections in this thread at this time show Baton Rouge might get a 1-3 inches of rain and might experience sustained winds of 30-45 mph.
By comparison, Baton Rouge recorded two 91 mph wind gusts from Gustav and sustained winds in the low 60s. LINK
Those are the facts...
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 3:00 pm
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:40 am to stout
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:41 am to loogaroo
quote:
What do you think about the storm surge with a major coming in at that angle? I know it's bad regardless, but I think that angle makes it worse.
It is a terrible angle for Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes as they will stay in the South and East winds for almost the entire duration of the storm.
When you have the traditional storm that coming up from the Caribbean you have strong winds from the north that empty out most of the bays until the center passes 90 west.
For example, during Ida water was trying to leave the Terrebonne basin, but the floodgates were closed and the force of the water dislodged the Bubba Dove floodgate.
While in Lafourche parish, the water was knocking the South Lafourche levees.
Katrina and Gustav were nearly the same, there was minor flooding on the west side of the Mississippi River, but east of the river the water piled up along the land and filled Lake Ponchatrain.
Some people even say the Mississippi River acts like a shield forcing some of the surge that would hit places like Grand Isle and push it further north to St. Bernard, Lake Ponchatrain and Mississippi.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:42 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Maybe I don’t know what wishcasting is then.
Usually when someone hears facts regarding potential area of landfall they don’t like and refuse to believe them so they think you’re wishing the storm to that location
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:42 am to loogaroo
Looks like that model has the center over my house.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:43 am to loogaroo
quote:
loogaroo
If it does reach Cat 3 wouldn't the strengthening of it keep it from shifting east much more?
Again, I am hurricane dumb other than knowing when to evacuate.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:44 am to LSURussian
quote:
You saying this storm is going to be Gustav 2.0 and it's going to shred trees in Baton Rouge are not facts. Those are your hopeful opinions.
I’m basing those opinions on the latest GFS model run which shows a fricking cat 3 hurricane slamming into the general area of Vermillion Bay then heading northeast to Baton Rouge. If that were to happen, then yes Baton Rouge would see conditions very similar to Gustav.
That’s not my hopeful opinion. That’s my opinion based on a model run. Next run is probably gonna be different.
I don’t know where you’re getting that I hope that happens.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:45 am to deltaland
quote:
Usually when someone hears facts regarding potential area of landfall they don’t like and refuse to believe them so they think you’re wishing the storm to that location
Bing
fricking
Go
Guess I’ll stop discussing a model run that appears negative for our area and will only stick to those that look bad for other areas since some here can’t handle the idea of a storm in Baton Rouge.
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 11:48 am
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:47 am to TDsngumbo
With the ground so saturated, any storm with hurricane force winds will bring a ton of trees down.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:48 am to dukke v
Oh no baw, you’re not allowed to hypothesize what might happen if a storm were to hit our area.
STOP WISHCASTING
STOP WISHCASTING
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:48 am to tiger91
Yep. Prayers sent.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:48 am to Tarps99
quote:
Some people even say the Mississippi River acts like a shield forcing some of the surge that would hit places like Grand Isle and push it further north to St. Bernard, Lake Ponchatrain and Mississippi.
Yeah. That's what I'm talking about. I don't know if we have ever seen the East side filled like what this angle could do.
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