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Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:49 am to G Vice
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:49 am to TDsngumbo
Not wishing nothing. Just going off of facts and (like you) model runs….
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:50 am to stout
quote:
If it does reach Cat 3 wouldn't the strengthening of it keep it from shifting east much more?
Stronger would probably mean more East.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:51 am to dukke v
But that’s not allowed.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:51 am to TDsngumbo
From my own very flawed memory, it does seem like the models have pretty consistently underestimated the ultimate strength of storms recently.
If models are showing a cat 1-3 range, I would assume it will be at the higher end of the range. Hopefully this runs fast enough whatever it brings will be a relatively short duration.
If models are showing a cat 1-3 range, I would assume it will be at the higher end of the range. Hopefully this runs fast enough whatever it brings will be a relatively short duration.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:51 am to loogaroo
quote:
Stronger would probably mean more East.
Gotcha. Thanks
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:53 am to lsuman25
quote:
Recon just took off from Kessler
Finally. I wish the NOAA planes were going up as well. This is looking serious.
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 11:56 am
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:01 pm to loogaroo
The state is way behind TD.com
quote:
Tropics Update: Sunday 6 AM
Invest 91L in the SW Gulf (Bay of Campeche) remains disorganized but conditions will be favorable for development as the system slowly drifts north-to-NW over the next 2-3 days.
A landfall in Mexico or Texas is becoming more and more unlikely, with the majority of the model guidance keeping the slowly-organizing system over the western Gulf waters.
91L is likely to become Tropical Depression #6 (TD#6) soon and is will probably become T.S. Francine in the next 2-3 days. North-to-NW movement will be slow and the system may only be east, or even SE, of Brownsville by Wednesday morning.
After that, TD#6/Francine and will begin a turn to the north-to-NE and start to increase its forward speed.
That puts Louisiana in the crosshairs for a landfall ... most likely either (late) Thursday or early Friday depending on that rate of increase in forward speed after Wednesday.
At this stage, landfall at tropical-storm intensity is most likely ... but given how we've been seeing storms "over-achieve" with respect to NHC forecasts, planning for a "Category 1" would be prudent.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:04 pm to stout
That’s why I come here for all storms info.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:10 pm to ned nederlander
shite last thing anyone needs is a "surprise" cat 3 hitting in 3ish days
stores from houston to nola are bout to be empty once these images spread on social media.
do your part, panic buy now so you get the goodies first!
stores from houston to nola are bout to be empty once these images spread on social media.
do your part, panic buy now so you get the goodies first!
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:12 pm to loogaroo
Nope don’t like that
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:15 pm to stout
At the rate insurance companies have left Louisiana are we going to have any left by this time next year?
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:15 pm to Impotent Waffle
What time do the models run again?
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:17 pm to Impotent Waffle
Euro runs ends in about 45 mins. Lets see if it bites on a stronger storm.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:18 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
At the rate insurance companies have left Louisiana are we going to have any left by this time next year?
Bad thing is that the Lafayette metro has not had a direct hit in a long time so unlike the other I10 cities/metros, there are a lot of old roofs and weak trees still up. If a strong Cat 2 or 3 pops there its going to be devastating and will no doubt drive away insurers or keep any from coming back that were considering it.
It will also be interesting to see how that area, with all the new developments being in old rice fields, handles the rain and storm surge. The drainage there has never been tested like that. I bet there are a ton of houses about to flood that don't have flood insurance because they are in flood zone X on the FEMA map.
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:20 pm to stout
quote:
At this stage, landfall at tropical-storm intensity is most likely ... but given how we've been seeing storms "over-achieve" with respect to NHC forecasts, planning for a "Category 1" would be prudent.
And let's keep in mind what a Cat. 1 is actually capable of. A few people here shite on Houston when Barrel rolled through as a Cat. 1. They are capable of doing extensive infrastructure damage. The list of Cat. 1 storms that were terrible pains in the arse is long.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:22 pm to stout
Idk. 2016 flood was awfully testy for the area.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:22 pm to LegendInMyMind
Yeah, I've seen tropical storms in my lifetime do more damage than Cat 3s just by flooding and how they stalled out.
So what's the likelihood based on the current forecast this thing intensifies more than they're projecting with such a short time frame?
So what's the likelihood based on the current forecast this thing intensifies more than they're projecting with such a short time frame?
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 9/8/24 at 12:25 pm to tiger91
quote:
Idk. 2016 flood was awfully testy for the area.
Yeah but a lot of developments have gone up in 8 years changing drainage.
Also, the debris from a hurricane blocking drainage changes a lot vs just a straight flood.
A lot of areas in Lake Charles flooded from Delta because of the debris from Laura.
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