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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:11 am to BregmansWheelbarrow
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:11 am to BregmansWheelbarrow
quote:
So even with this thing making landfall between Cameron and Vermillion, most of the business end is going to be on the east side?
The system will interact with a trough moving out of Texas, and the heaviest rainfall will occur along and west of the path. Those on the eastern side might not see much to be concerned about.
2
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:12 am to TDsngumbo
Beryl was also a measly CAT1. It wreaked major havoc.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:13 am to charliemurphy69
quote:
greater metropolitan area of Gonzales expect?
The level of pretentiousness in this statement made me laugh.
I hope you weren’t serious. Sadly, I think you were.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:17 am to The People
He’s just jealous of downtown St. Amant.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:19 am to rds dc
It looks Wed/Thursday will be the day?
As always thanks for what you do in these threads. Good luck baws and bawettes
As always thanks for what you do in these threads. Good luck baws and bawettes
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 10:30 am
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:24 am to Impotent Waffle
Y'all folks be safe down there.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:24 am to Impotent Waffle
So far on the noon runs the 12z ICON comes in the same spot as the 06z ICON. The 12z GFS will start running within 20 minutes
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:24 am to The People
quote:
I hope you weren’t serious. Sadly, I think you were.
It’s the OT everyone is super rich and super serious at ALL times….
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 10:26 am
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:27 am to Impotent Waffle
They shifted to west at 12z. But it’s a waste of time to try to pinpoint a landfall before a center of circulation even forms. It’s general direction is locked in putting anywhere from Galveston to Morgan City. With the likehood of a lopsided system making things on the western side not too bad.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:29 am to The Boat
My bad, thanks for correcting me.
Yeah I know it’s pointless, will be following
Yeah I know it’s pointless, will be following
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:31 am to rds dc
Hoping I’m on the east side. 
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:33 am to tiger91
quote:
Hoping I’m on the east side.
That's going to be the worst side.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:38 am to loogaroo
From rds above:
The system will interact with a trough moving out of Texas, and the heaviest rainfall will occur along and west of the path. Those on the eastern side might not see much to be concerned about.
The system will interact with a trough moving out of Texas, and the heaviest rainfall will occur along and west of the path. Those on the eastern side might not see much to be concerned about.
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 10:39 am
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:38 am to The Boat
quote:
With the likehood of a lopsided system making things on the western side not too bad.
Along and WEST of the track will see the brunt of this system. Some areas on the eastern side might not see much at all (less than 2" of rain and some gusty winds).
The 12z ICON tracks approximately from Pecan Island to Simmesport.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:39 am to SWLA92
quote:
So far on the noon runs the 12z ICON comes in the same spot as the 06z ICON.
ICON is a little weaker and about 25 miles to the east compared to the previous one.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:40 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
ICON is a little weaker
Will wind shear as it moves more north continue to eat it up?
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:41 am to stout
I don’t know. I’m only as good as the tropicalidbits face value output 
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:43 am to rds dc
quote:
Along and WEST of the track will see the brunt of this system.
Almost 6 inches of rain at the mouth of the Mississippi. 1 inch in Lake Charles. With a Pecan Island landfall in that one output. Almost 0 rain in Texas.
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:44 am to stout
quote:
Will wind shear as it moves more north continue to eat it up?
Yes, models currently show shear and interaction with the incoming trough, causing it to weaken on approach to landfall. Now, there is always the outside chance that the trough is slower and takes on a negative tilt, setting up a longer period of intensification.
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 10:45 am
Posted on 9/8/24 at 10:44 am to TDsngumbo
Yea I ask because I have no idea about any of that. I am thankful for the people here who do.
I see some people saying it will end up more east but the models keep showing a west shift so far today vs yesterday.
Houston is now probably a bit more concerned than they were yesterday.
I see some people saying it will end up more east but the models keep showing a west shift so far today vs yesterday.
Houston is now probably a bit more concerned than they were yesterday.
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