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re: Delinquencies on auto loans are at the highest level in a decade
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:06 am to Salmon
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:06 am to Salmon
quote:
I keep seeing all of these threads and it all looks bad, but then I go outside and everything seems to be getting more expensive and everyone seems to be having a good time and I have no idea what any of this means for me or anyone else.
Am I alone in these thoughts/observations?
I assume I just live in a bubble of mostly financially secure people. Or they are all just really good at hiding it, if they are struggling.
While I think, as usual, the average person probably has a ton of debt, pure discretionary spending is still blowing and going like crazy.
Tswift tickets, international travel, sports events etc.
When I go out in my city to the popular spots, they are typically packed with people hanging out and spending money. The fancy restaurant near my crib (~150-200 for a dinner for two) is booked out for 2 weeks even in the summer. I talked with the owner when I went last month and he said he can't remember the last night they were able to seat walk-ups.
The bottom quartile is probably getting smoked, but the middle 50% seems to be spending money on non-essentials like crazy still.
2
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:06 am to Salmon
quote:
I keep seeing all of these threads and it all looks bad, but then I go outside and everything seems to be getting more expensive and everyone seems to be having a good time and I have no idea what any of this means for me or anyone else.
Am I alone in these thoughts/observations?
nope. i’m assuming it’s being well hid via credit cards.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:10 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
The bottom quartile is probably getting smoked, but the middle 50% seems to be spending money on non-essentials like crazy still.
Retail did see an increase in August...due to a rise in gas prices.
Retail sales rise 0.6% in August largely due to a spike in gas prices
quote:
NEW YORK (AP) — Americans stepped up retail spending modestly from July to August as the price of gasoline jumped, cutting into budgets as many families send their kids off to school.
Retail sales rose 0.6% in August, compared with a revised 0.5% increase in July, according to a report issued by the Commerce Department on Thursday.
A closely watched category of retail sales that excludes auto dealers, gas stations and building materials and feeds into the gross domestic product increased just 0.1% last month compared to the prior month, after a revised 0.7% increase in July.
The big rise in gas prices accounted for more than half of the inflation increase recorded in August, the U.S. Labor Department reported Wednesday. The surge in gas prices is coursing through the economy and could slow down shoppers’ momentum heading into the critical holiday shopping season.
0.1% rise means people haven't stopped spending
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:11 am to stout
And still only half as high as the "great recession"
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:12 am to SelaTiger
quote:
96 month vehicle loans.
unbelievable
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:13 am to Klark Kent
quote:
ope. i’m assuming it’s being well hid via credit cards.
Credit card debt is actually down, in real terms, since 2019. And it's down a LOT in real terms.
Credit Card debt is only about 10.7% higher than it was Q4 of 2019. Inflation is roughly 20% in that time.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:15 am to JohnnyKilroy
hmm, any idea how that’s possible?
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:15 am to stout
Amazing that people who make less than $100k a year can’t afford there Denalis & king Ranches.
I’m fixing to eat up a nice gently used Escalade when y’all baws miss a couple more payments.
I’m fixing to eat up a nice gently used Escalade when y’all baws miss a couple more payments.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:16 am to stout
Now bring on the mortgages. 
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:19 am to Klark Kent
quote:
hmm, any idea how that’s possible?
Not sure exactly what is allowing it to be that way.
CC debt would have to rise by ~130 billion from where it is right now just to match inflation.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:22 am to waiting4saturday
quote:
I’m fixing to eat up a nice gently used Escalade
for 95% of the original MSRP
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:24 am to stout
They picked a spectacular time to strike.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:24 am to Havoc
quote:I see trucks, luxury cars, boats, ATV's, and a ton of home improvements under construction all over the place. People are living well.
Trucks, boats, you name it.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:26 am to Salmon
quote:
I assume I just live in a bubble of mostly financially secure people. Or they are all just really good at hiding it, if they are struggling.
im not sure if good at hiding it is the correct assessment. i think they are truly oblivious to how poor their own money management is.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:44 am to stout
quote:
96-month loan on a high dollar item with only a 36-month warranty. Doesn't make much sense to me.
Someone I know went purchase a used 2022 Chevy Tahoe Z71. The bank they financed through made them take out a life insurance policy for the amount they borrowed. I think it was around 70k. 84 month loan at well over 1,000 a month on a VEHICLE. Hell no.
This post was edited on 9/15/23 at 9:45 am
Posted on 9/15/23 at 9:57 am to Salmon
quote:
I keep seeing all of these threads and it all looks bad, but then I go outside and everything seems to be getting more expensive and everyone seems to be having a good time and I have no idea what any of this means for me or anyone else.
Am I alone in these thoughts/observations?
I assume I just live in a bubble of mostly financially secure people. Or they are all just really good at hiding it, if they are struggling.
I recently saw that the debt to income rate is at 40% which is all time high. People out there are living beyond their means.
This post was edited on 9/15/23 at 9:59 am
Posted on 9/15/23 at 10:00 am to stout
quote:
I have no idea how things are still trucking along.
Credick
For the first time in years, CCs are offering good signup bonuses. People are just rolling debt into new cards/loans
Posted on 9/15/23 at 10:01 am to Shexter
quote:People will generally pay for shelter before transportation and transportation before other consumer credit. I would expect credit card delinquencies to lead auto and auto to lead mortgage. However, a sharp rise in auto delinquencies indicates to me a high probability of a similar rise in mortgage delinquencies.
Now do delinquencies on mortgages.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 10:04 am to stout
Hopefully, as move inventory comes up (due to repossessions) , prices come down
Posted on 9/15/23 at 10:13 am to stout
A stout thread
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