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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:02 pm to cypresstiger
I think they nailed the path pretty well up until ~after Jamaica. The storm trended to the north of the potential tracks, and then when it hit the Yucatan it jogged more north than any models predicted. Now that it's back over open water, let's hope the track is pretty well set.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:04 pm to bamarep
I see it on Weather Underground next to the speed.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:06 pm to CoonassatTEXAS
I'm only speaking to metro Houston. Not sure of trinity river hydrology. But yeah if the river is still up from the May rains it's something to watch. Pay attention to usgs gauge and river forecast center.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:08 pm to cypresstiger
quote:But at the time I'm talking, that final landfall in mexico was 7-8 days away.
They seemed to nail its path for the past week.
—-no, they had it curving to central Mex
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:11 pm to Jake88
Did it tick a tad more west in this recent update?
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:18 pm to PGAOLDBawNeVaBroke
quote:
Did it tick a tad more west in this recent update?
Yes as the OT foretold
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:19 pm to PGAOLDBawNeVaBroke
quote:
Did it tick a tad more west in this recent update?
Yes.
That can be found here:
LINK
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:21 pm to The Boat
Me thinks the towers will explode this evening. Barrel is already firing pretty consistent bursts of convection that it then tries to wrap up. Gonna definitely be an interesting 24 hours ahead.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:25 pm to NorthEndZone
hWRF still saying 971 mb and 80-85 knots at landfall.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:35 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Anyone that doesn’t watch that gif and see a Morgan City landfall is living in dreamland. Don’t pay attention to the cone. Just watch the gif and use your brain.
Now this is wishcasting
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:37 pm to NorthEndZone
From Ryan Maue.
Harvey 48 hours before landfall.
He also posted this yesterday
Harvey 48 hours before landfall.
He also posted this yesterday
quote:
Beryl will have 36-hours over the shallow (100-meter depth) warm western Gulf of Mexico shelf waters with perfect upper-level atmospheric conditions. That's a recipe for rapid intensification.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:40 pm to PGAOLDBawNeVaBroke
Outerbands approaching. Port Sulphur getting hammered by one
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:40 pm to OU Guy
well isn't this dude a ray of sunshine
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:43 pm to OU Guy
quote:
From Ryan Maue.
Harvey 48 hours before landfall.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:47 pm to LaBR4
If I recall, Harvey hit as a 4 upon landing and was always projected to be a 3 or so. That was also Late August and the water was even warmer
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:56 pm to RummelTiger
1 pm
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 92.7W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
300 degree wnw motion if they say so
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 92.7W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
300 degree wnw motion if they say so
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:59 pm to PGAOLDBawNeVaBroke
quote:
If I recall, Harvey hit as a 4 upon landing and was always projected to be a 3 or so. That was also Late August and the water was even warmer
The only problem with this is that Gulf SSTs are ahead of schedule. They're more like late August temps than early July.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 1:00 pm to The Boat
quote:
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB
You added this bit, didn't you? We all know they don't publish the pressure of storms anymore.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 1:04 pm to OU Guy
quote:
From Ryan Maue.
Harvey 48 hours before landfall.
His post is highly irresponsible. Without additional context, people reading that will think this is Harvey 2.0.
And go read Eric Webb's response to him, he destroyed him in a polite way.
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