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re: Assuming most new cars will be EV's by 2030...how to future proof a new home's garage?
Posted on 2/5/21 at 6:26 pm to DeCat ODahouse
Posted on 2/5/21 at 6:26 pm to DeCat ODahouse
quote:
Would appreciate if you would post more thoughts on the PowerWall. Not meaning to hijack this thread, maybe time for a new one on the H/G board?
For sure. In my opinion it’s the best piece on the market. The cell tech isn’t the abolished best but it’s close. The control tech is where it really kills everything else. Anything specific you want to know? The biggest issue right now is finding them.
1
Posted on 2/5/21 at 6:28 pm to tigergirl10
quote:
The $10,000 batteries that have to be replaced every 80-100k for electric vehicles is the real issue.
This is just bullshite. I know a "tiny" amount about cars and I only know of 1 car late fits this criteria and it isn't even an EV it is a hybrid. The BMW 750Li Active Hybrid was built for 3 years and had a fatal issue. The battery pack was of poor design and often lasts less than 100k miles, when it dies it mechanically totals the car. To this point, nobody I am aware of has bothered to try to reprogram the car to just run on its ICE engine (which has plenty of power for the car) and the battery pack is a ~$9500 BMW part with parts and labor running ~$15k.
Your premise has one real-world example where the majority of EVs and hybrids have batteries that last MUCH longer and the cost of replacement is much lower.
BTW if someone bothers to crack the code on the 750 I mentioned you can pick up damn nice versions with no issues outside the battery pack for $3k at salvage auctions.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 6:31 pm to lostinbr
quote:
That means that if pure EV’s made up 100% of all new vehicle sales right now, it would still take 10+ years for them to make up more than 50% of cars on the road and 15+ years to make up more than 75% of cars on the road.
Estimates I’ve seen from looking at storage demand forecast show 20 years for 50% saturation if we stopped producing ICE immediately and closer to 30 with the projected phase in.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:06 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
The BMW 750Li Active Hybrid was built for 3 years and had a fatal issue. The battery pack was of poor design and often lasts less than 100k miles, when it dies it mechanically totals the car.
So it's not any worse than any gas powered BMW.....
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:07 pm to Penrod
quote:
You don’t need 100 amps. That’s the maximum rate you can charge the biggest Tesla. You don’t need to charge at the maximum rate. That’s the rate you would use if you were traveling and pulled over to charge.
Yeah. It looks like a pair of 50 amp outlets is what I'd need for the garage.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:21 pm to billjamin
quote:
Estimates I’ve seen from looking at storage demand forecast show 20 years for 50% saturation if we stopped producing ICE immediately and closer to 30 with the projected phase in.
That is more realistic, but still pretty aggressive in my opinion.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:27 pm to Tigersonfire
quote:
Here’s the best breakdown I found. It’s true now can they maybe find other souls state battery material?? Sure but at what cost is the biggest question with that which leads to the real reason for the electric movement MONEY
That’s interesting. Thanks for the link. It’s not something that anyone in the industry is really talking about right now. Seems like everyones focused on driving down the tech cost and ramping up production. It’ll be interesting to see the other chems show up and how quickly the manufacturers can retool and adapt.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:27 pm to billjamin
I've had a Model S for nearly 4 years now (bought 3 years old... it was built in late '13). So it's a pretty old one now.
Just a few facts from my experience that are relevant to comments in this thread.
* Battery capacity is at roughly 95% of original. 252 of 265. I have 45k miles - low mileage when I got it and I have been WFH the last 10 months.
* My daily drive when going to the office is about 40 miles. I have a NEMA 14-50 plug in the garage as someone else mentioned. 220v, 50 amps. It charges 29 miles/hour, so my car only spends about 90 minutes charging most days. From what I see my daily drive is maybe a little higher than the average for US, so I don't think there should be an issue with multiple EVs overlapping charging for the majority of folks.
* Home charging is great, but obviously charging on the road is needed for road trips or people who don't have the ability to charge at home. How fast you can "refill" the battery only matters for those cases, but it's improving quickly. My old S takes long enough with the older Tesla chargers (due to the architecture it actually slowed down in 2019 vs 2017 due to more of the Model 3s sharing charging) that I don't do long road trips now. But the newer cars and newer Tesla Superchargers are much better.
* Just a quick math check on the post about needing 236 NYCs if we switched vehicles to EVs. I did some math and that looks close enough to not quibble about. Of course, we're not getting anywhere near 100% of miles being driven in EVs any time soon. I agree that more nuclear power should be used. But we're getting more home generation of electricity, which was not a factor at all until fairly recently. My brother in Texas is running almost completely off the grid in the house he built a few years ago. A variety of things will help get us where I don't think generating the electricity will be that big a deal, it's going to be a gradual ramp up.
* Lithium is not super common but also not super rare. There's plenty of it, just a bit harder to get to. Source: LINK . But battery chemistries are evolving, Tesla has newer cells reducing the amount of cobalt needed, etc. There are a lot of smart people working on this.
By 2030 I think we'll be looking back and wondering why there was such fear and confusion about this.
Just a few facts from my experience that are relevant to comments in this thread.
* Battery capacity is at roughly 95% of original. 252 of 265. I have 45k miles - low mileage when I got it and I have been WFH the last 10 months.
* My daily drive when going to the office is about 40 miles. I have a NEMA 14-50 plug in the garage as someone else mentioned. 220v, 50 amps. It charges 29 miles/hour, so my car only spends about 90 minutes charging most days. From what I see my daily drive is maybe a little higher than the average for US, so I don't think there should be an issue with multiple EVs overlapping charging for the majority of folks.
* Home charging is great, but obviously charging on the road is needed for road trips or people who don't have the ability to charge at home. How fast you can "refill" the battery only matters for those cases, but it's improving quickly. My old S takes long enough with the older Tesla chargers (due to the architecture it actually slowed down in 2019 vs 2017 due to more of the Model 3s sharing charging) that I don't do long road trips now. But the newer cars and newer Tesla Superchargers are much better.
* Just a quick math check on the post about needing 236 NYCs if we switched vehicles to EVs. I did some math and that looks close enough to not quibble about. Of course, we're not getting anywhere near 100% of miles being driven in EVs any time soon. I agree that more nuclear power should be used. But we're getting more home generation of electricity, which was not a factor at all until fairly recently. My brother in Texas is running almost completely off the grid in the house he built a few years ago. A variety of things will help get us where I don't think generating the electricity will be that big a deal, it's going to be a gradual ramp up.
* Lithium is not super common but also not super rare. There's plenty of it, just a bit harder to get to. Source: LINK . But battery chemistries are evolving, Tesla has newer cells reducing the amount of cobalt needed, etc. There are a lot of smart people working on this.
By 2030 I think we'll be looking back and wondering why there was such fear and confusion about this.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:27 pm to lostinbr
quote:
That means that if pure EV’s made up 100% of all new vehicle sales right now, it would still take 10+ years for them to make up more than 50% of cars on the road and 15+ years to make up more than 75% of cars on the road.
I'll be dead before there aren't any gas powered vehicles on the road unless the government outlaws them (which is entirely possible)
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:42 pm to billjamin
quote:
Would appreciate if you would post more thoughts on the PowerWall. Not meaning to hijack this thread, maybe time for a new one on the H/G board?
For sure. In my opinion it’s the best piece on the market. The cell tech isn’t the abolished best but it’s close. The control tech is where it really kills everything else. Anything specific you want to know? The biggest issue right now is finding them.
Thanks! Just stared new topic and posted q's on H/G board
Home Garden Board post
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:51 pm to dewster
I saw a car charging at Whole Foods last weekend. Had to just laugh and shake my head but I guess it’s really not that funny. A rechargeable car. So it’s come to this, huh?
Posted on 2/5/21 at 8:23 pm to dewster
That isn’t happening. And if it did it would be the biggest shite show of all time trying to get it to work as good as we have it now only to fail miserably
Posted on 2/5/21 at 8:32 pm to weadjust
What’s funny is that USB-A ports are now being replaced by USB-C. If I were the OP, I would just prewire based on today’s standard and make everything easy access
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:19 pm to Bmath
I have a buddy who is a higher up at Mercedes Benz USA. They were developing and just scrapped their entire plug-in hybrid line up and are going straight to all electric. It will take many decades for all ICE vehicles to be off the road but I wouldn’t be surprised if the vast majority of cars sold in 2030 are 100% electric and/or hydrogen fuel cell.
Prepare to start being taxed by the mile when gas tax revenue craters.
Prepare to start being taxed by the mile when gas tax revenue craters.
This post was edited on 2/5/21 at 9:20 pm
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:36 pm to dewster
Not going to happen
Posted on 2/5/21 at 11:13 pm to dewster
I’d bet a month’s pay that all cars won’t be electric in 20 years. We don’t have the electrical infrastructure in this country, much less in this state. If we do, look forward to rolling blackouts year round to compensate for all the charging stations, public and private
Posted on 2/6/21 at 1:01 am to billjamin
quote:
That’s interesting.
While true we will need a lot of cobalt, nickel, vanadium, thallium, bismuth, yttrium, lithium, and molybdenum for new EVs the amount of polymetallic nodules just sitting on the ocean floor is staggering. One of the big differences from land mined ore is they are nearly 100% useful minerals vs about 1%.
As a side note one of the things I always come back to is the US competitive advantage in EVs. The more we push back against EVs in the US the more we cede the competitive advantage to countries like China. Member when the US refused to redirect toward smaller more fuel-efficient cars like the Japanese were importing because they were a joke and no 'Merican would buy them? Yeah, I member.
Posted on 2/6/21 at 2:28 am to Obtuse1
quote:
As a side note one of the things I always come back to is the US competitive advantage in EVs. The more we push back against EVs in the US the more we cede the competitive advantage to countries like China. Member when the US refused to redirect toward smaller more fuel-efficient cars like the Japanese were importing because they were a joke and no 'Merican would buy them? Yeah, I member.
That's a significant thing.
Tesla is one of the most American made cars in the US market. I don't get the antipathy in certain ways. They're a hugely successful American company that's virtually singlehandedly pivoted an entire industry. They have set the course for the future. The Chinese are going hard at this market because they know that. Regardless of what regulations the US enacts, Europe and Asia are already doing it so those markets will also force the issue.
Posted on 2/6/21 at 4:07 am to pheroy
I shook my head at the down votes on your post. Some of you guys act like we will not improve technology along the way
Tesla battery day
That link will give yoy an idea where tesla is heading with their batteries. With all the car companies in the EV game the amount of research in this area is rising exponentially.
As far as parking cars in the streets can someone tell me where people park in the street and they have a gas station?
Tesla battery day
That link will give yoy an idea where tesla is heading with their batteries. With all the car companies in the EV game the amount of research in this area is rising exponentially.
As far as parking cars in the streets can someone tell me where people park in the street and they have a gas station?
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