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re: 1/25-1/26 2026 Major Deep South Winter Storm Thread

Posted on 1/20/26 at 10:54 am to
Posted by H2O Tiger
Delta Sky Club
Member since May 2021
7954 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 10:54 am to
It's gonna be nasty.

Austin looks like it'll take a glancing blow but my parents and brother up in Shreveport are gonna get hammered.
Posted by paperwasp
2x HRV 2025 Poster of the Year
Member since Sep 2014
29984 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 10:55 am to
quote:

As good as Spann has been for central Alabama, winter weather has left him with a lot of egg on his face

It's definitely a hard business, but the thing that kills me the most about him is that when he's flat wrong, he carefully words his products to pretend like he's been right and expecting the eventual outcome the whole time.

If he was as good as he believes he is I'd follow him more often, but a while back I actually logged his data for about a year and his forecasts were among the least accurate for my area.

He's elite with social media and effective communication, just not so hot at meteorology. I swear there are a cult of olds that religiously follow and defend that guy just because he spouts off hyper-local geography. They don't seem to notice that he regularly blows the actual weather part.

Posted by paperwasp
2x HRV 2025 Poster of the Year
Member since Sep 2014
29984 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 11:00 am to
Just a reminder:
quote:

One important note. Over the next few days you're going to see a lot of maps showing freezing rain QPF amounts. Some of these will look absolutely terrifying, with values of one to two inches or more across large areas. Be careful with those maps.

Freezing rain QPF shows how much precipitation falls in the form of freezing rain. That is not the same thing as how much ice actually accumulates on surfaces. Actual ice accretion depends on additional factors including surface temperatures, wind, and how quickly the precipitation falls. Those raw QPF maps will be overdone. A major ice storm is increasingly likely, but don't take those numbers at face value.

That said, even with more realistic ice accretion estimates, the icing threat is significant. The zone from central Texas through the Mid-South and into the Carolinas faces hazardous conditions. Power outages and tree damage are real concerns, and some areas could see multi-day outages.
Posted by SouthernHog
Arkansas
Member since Jul 2016
7313 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 11:20 am to
I pray its not as bad as what they are saying.
Posted by Capt ST
High Plains
Member since Aug 2011
13665 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 11:24 am to
I hope it isn't either, that ice sucks. Luckily I'm north of that line and just going to get snow and very cold. High Sat is 15 now.
Posted by weagle1999
Member since May 2025
2900 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 11:38 am to
Doom!

Doom!

Doom!!!!


(Keep clicking and subscribing)
Posted by Thracken13
Aft Cargo Hold of Serenity
Member since Feb 2010
18843 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 11:39 am to
well this weekend is gonna equate to me getting stuff done around the house to get it ready to put on the market. no power may hinder it a bit, but keeps me from being lazy lol
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51688 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

The truth is forecasting winter weather five days out is a lot of guessing.

Winter weather is the most difficult weather to forecast in the Deep South. Usually it’s unclear whether the cold air and moisture will line up well enough to produce winter weather. There’s often a very fine line between wintry precipitation and a cold rain. I don’t envy any of these men and women who have to forecast winter weather events down here.
Posted by saintsfan1977
Arkansas, from Cajun country
Member since Jun 2010
10338 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

appears we are getting another snowpocalypse here in Little Rock

Im in Conway. Not looking forward to it at all.
Posted by 777Tiger
Member since Mar 2011
92217 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

cold rain.


piece of cake, it's freezing rain that fricks everything up
Posted by AHM21
Member since Feb 2008
31988 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:29 pm to
I don’t doubt the difficulty. I just think most give Spann a hard time based on how condescending he was before his forecast blew up and people ended up stuck on 280 because they listened to him.

He’s much more subdued now.
Posted by southpawcock
Member since Oct 2015
17724 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:36 pm to
I swear to God if we get ice.... screw this shite. Snow or don't do anything, the ice is bad.
Posted by jaytothen
Member since Jan 2020
8679 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:37 pm to
Why has rds abandoned us in our time of need?
Posted by HogPharmer
Member since Jun 2022
3750 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

Im in Conway. Not looking forward to it at all.


I'm just south of Little Rock kind of skirting that line between the heavy snow and the ice. Hoping I just get snow here.
Posted by WhuckFistle
Member since Jul 2015
3402 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:58 pm to
I remember back in 21 when the models were showing 20 inches of snow for Little Rock. I posted on here that there is no way in hell it would it snow that much.

I’ll be damned if we didn’t get 22 inches of snow.
Posted by ILurkThereforeIAm
In the Shadows, Behind Hedges
Member since Aug 2020
828 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 1:00 pm to
From Meteorologist Zack Fradella's FB page about an hour ago:

"The threat coming to multiple states in the Deep South, including Louisiana, cannot be overstated. A devastating ice storm looks very likely. Residents need to monitor the forecasts closely as we figure out where the change from rain to ice will be.

**Ice accumulation will likely lead to widespread power outages and a total shut down of multiple cities**

**Dangerous cold will follow the storm leading to multiple nights of no power and frigid temperatures maybe as low as the single digits**

Even though a good bit of the impacts look to stay north of New Orleans, I’ll be back on air in the morning to start following the trends closely!"

Once he received comments and questions from tons of dumbasses asking specifics about timing and location (which no one knows for sure yet, they're just saying prepare and be ready), he said:

"Note: I have followers from all corners of the state. It’s impossible for me to give a city by city forecast. I try to be descriptive when I can but this many days out, it’s hard to pinpoint a bullseye. Everyone should be watching the weather and if you live inland of I-10/12, I would prepare for some form of ice."
Posted by BrohemAlem11
Ratchet City, LA
Member since Oct 2014
13798 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

rom Meteorologist Zack Fradella's FB page about an hour ago:



that dude is the biggest doom storm overhyper in the game. not saying this storm isnt serious but he can write 6 horrifying paragraphs on a spring drizzle
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24632 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

"The threat coming to multiple states in the Deep South, including Louisiana, cannot be overstated. A devastating ice storm looks very likely. Residents need to monitor the forecasts closely as we figure out where the change from rain to ice will be.

As of now BR stays just below or east of the freezing line. Everything depends on the path and strength of the gulf low.
Posted by Lawyered
The Sip
Member since Oct 2016
38331 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 1:06 pm to
So many models all over the place with this one
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14279 posts
Posted on 1/20/26 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

dude is the biggest doom storm overhyper in the game


I generally like Zack, but as he gets older he's becoming a combination of Bob Breck and Margaret Orr rolled into one with the doomcasts.
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