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Started By
Message
re: 1/25-1/26 2026 Major Deep South Winter Storm Thread
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:56 am to Jim Rockford
Posted on 1/20/26 at 12:56 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
west Texas
calm wind
You should have bought a lottery ticket because luck was on your side.
3
Posted on 1/20/26 at 5:45 am to BoomerandSooner
Latest shows 15-20” of snow from Dallas to Birmingham.
A dusting for BR
(GFS)
A dusting for BR
(GFS)
This post was edited on 1/20/26 at 5:47 am
Posted on 1/20/26 at 6:25 am to bayoubengals88
Just placed the last of the Amazon orders for snow bibs, sleds and other gear as it appears we are getting another snowpocalypse here in Little Rock.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 6:39 am to BoomerandSooner
Posted on 1/20/26 at 7:12 am to DVinBR
DALASKA RETURNS! 
Posted on 1/20/26 at 7:30 am to tigerbandpiccolo
quote:
Just placed the last of the Amazon orders for snow bibs, sleds and other gear as it appears we are getting another snowpocalypse here in Little Rock.
Central Alabama is warm nose central on most of the models which spares the I-65 corridor between Montgomery and just south of B'hame from a really bad ice storm.
You might be able to skate on I-20 between B'ham and Atlanta and I-59 between B'ham and Ft Payne not to mention I-20 between Shreveport and Jackson, MS if even half of the 1.00-2.50 inches of freezing rain totals being modeled end up verifying.
Euro and GFS both now showing between 8" inches of snow around Huntsville to around 16" in Nashville with some 20" totals in between in southern middle Tennessee.
The entire state of Tennessee with 10+ inches modeled on the Euro
This post was edited on 1/20/26 at 7:34 am
Posted on 1/20/26 at 7:31 am to 50_Tiger
I keep waiting for models to rug-pull me here in middle TN, but they keep doubling down on higher totals. That said, I was born here and know not to expect any snow until you actually see flakes falling.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 7:35 am to Govt Tide
quote:
Central Alabama is warm nose central on most of the models which spares the I-65 corridor between Montgomery and just south of B'hame from a really bad ice storm.
I am just south of Birmingham, what the heck does this mean?
most of the stuff I have seen has northern Shelby county still getting a bunch of ice. Posted on 1/20/26 at 7:54 am to BoomerandSooner
NOAA has our region 70% of at least 4” snow. I can deal with snow. Down in Dallas area is the ice, and that will be a mess.
OKC
Dallas
OKC
Dallas
Posted on 1/20/26 at 7:59 am to DVinBR
This is from NWS Birmingham’s morning forecast discussion:
Friday night through Monday
Although rain chances remain in the forecast throughout the day Friday, there may be a brief reprieve behind the front before the
big weekend weather maker arrives. A southern stream trough is likely to eject eastward from the Baja California area, originating from a cutoff low off the coast of California late week. Ahead of this trough, a surface low is likely to develop near the Texas coast and track either along the Gulf Coast or just inland Saturday into Sunday. With a fairly cold airmass already in place, especially across northern and western Central Alabama, this will promote an
overrunning setup that may become highly favorable for winter precipitation.
Although exact details, such as precip type and amounts, will continue to vary run to run with new model updates, confidence is increasing in some type of winter mischief beginning Friday night across Central Alabama and lasting, in some form or fashion, until Sunday night. At this type, global models such as the GFS and ECMWF are trending more toward a freezing rain setup across much of the central and northern counties, with heavy snowfall currently expected further north across northern MS, AL, GA, and nearly all of TN. Much question remains with the models as to the changeover between snow and ice, but the general consensus currently is for the ice/snow line to meander north and south in North Alabama. With the current forecast, generally more to all snow is expected north of the Tennessee state line, with a higher mix of ice and snow across North Alabama. Northern and central counties in our Central Alabama region currently look to see more in the way of ice accumulation, although it is still a couple days too early to start nailing down
projected accumulation amounts.
If current forecast model trends hold, and so far they have for the last 48 hours or so, this could become a dangerous winter event for the northern half of the state of Alabama. It is imperative to stay tuned to forecast updates and any changes over the next three days as the forecast becomes better refined.
Friday night through Monday
Although rain chances remain in the forecast throughout the day Friday, there may be a brief reprieve behind the front before the
big weekend weather maker arrives. A southern stream trough is likely to eject eastward from the Baja California area, originating from a cutoff low off the coast of California late week. Ahead of this trough, a surface low is likely to develop near the Texas coast and track either along the Gulf Coast or just inland Saturday into Sunday. With a fairly cold airmass already in place, especially across northern and western Central Alabama, this will promote an
overrunning setup that may become highly favorable for winter precipitation.
Although exact details, such as precip type and amounts, will continue to vary run to run with new model updates, confidence is increasing in some type of winter mischief beginning Friday night across Central Alabama and lasting, in some form or fashion, until Sunday night. At this type, global models such as the GFS and ECMWF are trending more toward a freezing rain setup across much of the central and northern counties, with heavy snowfall currently expected further north across northern MS, AL, GA, and nearly all of TN. Much question remains with the models as to the changeover between snow and ice, but the general consensus currently is for the ice/snow line to meander north and south in North Alabama. With the current forecast, generally more to all snow is expected north of the Tennessee state line, with a higher mix of ice and snow across North Alabama. Northern and central counties in our Central Alabama region currently look to see more in the way of ice accumulation, although it is still a couple days too early to start nailing down
projected accumulation amounts.
If current forecast model trends hold, and so far they have for the last 48 hours or so, this could become a dangerous winter event for the northern half of the state of Alabama. It is imperative to stay tuned to forecast updates and any changes over the next three days as the forecast becomes better refined.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 8:07 am to Roll Tide Ravens
I'm not particularly liking this nonsense.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 8:09 am to BoogaBear
quote:
I am just south of Birmingham, what the heck does this mean? most of the stuff I have seen has northern Shelby county still getting a bunch of ice
I should clarify that areas just south of Calera MAY be ok. The entirety of Shelby County is in danger of major ice. The rain or freezing rain will be moderate to heavy in your area. You do NOT want to be sitting at 29 or 30 degrees with moderate freezing rain falling. Guaranteed power outage
Posted on 1/20/26 at 8:10 am to Govt Tide
Damn. Ice is a nightmare, praying we don’t get that here and certainly for everyone else.
I also remember the ice storm of 1994. My dad was a lineman at the time so he was gone for weeks, leaving my mom, our dog and my paw paw at home to keep a fire going at all times. I believe we were without power for two weeks or more. My dad and those guys used to work around the clock and slept in their bucket trucks to save time. I’m sure that storm was a nightmare for parents, but all I can remember is how beautiful it was, it was mesmerizing to see thick ice covering absolutely everything.
I also remember the ice storm of 1994. My dad was a lineman at the time so he was gone for weeks, leaving my mom, our dog and my paw paw at home to keep a fire going at all times. I believe we were without power for two weeks or more. My dad and those guys used to work around the clock and slept in their bucket trucks to save time. I’m sure that storm was a nightmare for parents, but all I can remember is how beautiful it was, it was mesmerizing to see thick ice covering absolutely everything.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 8:44 am to Govt Tide
They showed a quarter of an inch ice projection for Tuscaloosa on ABC 33/40 this morning with the temps rising barely above freezing Saturday with rain and more freezing rain Saturday night.
I’m guessing this means a slushed mess and power outages in south Tuscaloosa if this forecast holds?
I’m guessing this means a slushed mess and power outages in south Tuscaloosa if this forecast holds?
This post was edited on 1/20/26 at 8:44 am
Posted on 1/20/26 at 9:09 am to DVinBR
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
WEEKEND WINTER STORM: Global models remain very consistent in advertising the potential for a high impact winter storm for the northern half of Alabama this weekend. Here are the key messages...
*Best chance of snow with this event will be across the Tennessee Valley, especially north of the Tennessee River. It is possible some communities there could see snow totals in the 2-4" inch range. Maybe more in spots.
*South of the Tennessee River an extended period of freezing rain seems likely due to the cold air being very shallow. This is precipitation that falls in liquid form when temperatures are at or below freezing. This leads to ice accumulation on exposed surfaces, and can bring potential for power outages and very difficult travel conditions. Global models continue to suggest potential for some very significant ice accumulation.
*One positive is that temperatures will be in the 50s tomorrow through Friday, so the infrastructure won't be especially cold at the onset of the event.
*Defining the southern extent of the ice threat is always the hardest part of a forecast like this, and the line between a cold, rainy day and major icing can move back and forth during the event. At the moment is look like some ice accumulation will be possible as far south as Livingston, Greensboro, Clanton, Lake Martin, and Opelika. Understand this is very much subject to change.
*The risk snow/ice will begin as early as midnight Friday night over Northwest Alabama; the precipitation will spread to the east and south Saturday and Saturday night. It could very linger well into the day Sunday before ending Sunday night.
*South Alabama will see just a cold rain from this event.
*This winter storm will impact a wide area, from Texas to the Carolinas.
*We will much more specific about accumulation potential tomorrow, and have a very detailed impact forecast by Thursday. But if you live anywhere over the northern half of Alabama consider planning for difficult travel and power outages. It is a course of least regret.
Best case is that you wind up with a cold rain, worst case is a crippling ice storm that can lead to power outages for days, if not weeks in some isolated cases. Where mostly snow falls over the Tennessee Valley, power outages will be only isolated.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 9:29 am to DVinBR
They're currently calling for freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday in the Augusta area and that's the last damn thing I want to hear. Power outages suck
Posted on 1/20/26 at 9:31 am to FredBear
I’m forever scarred from 2009 and losing power for 2 weeks with below 0 wind chills.
Looking like we’ll get snow here, so charging the batteries for the snow blower and stocking up on soup and the like.
Looking like we’ll get snow here, so charging the batteries for the snow blower and stocking up on soup and the like.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 9:34 am to BluegrassBelle
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
We are in for one hell of an ending to January in the eastern half of the country with unending ARCTIC COLD and SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION across most of this area. It's going to stay VERY COLD after the event too, which makes melting and recovery much more difficult when significant ICE and SNOW fall. There are many details within the ECMWF model below, but I wanted to show you a "rough draft" of this storm.
The timeline of the event looks to be Friday afternoon into Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic. The ECMWF wants to put the northeast into a snowstorm before this ends on Tuesday.
Some of the data I have looked at this morning is downright scary with respect to ICE ACCRETION. Hopefully a lot of this falls as SLEET, but some of the FREEZING RAIN COULD BE OVER AN INCH which is crippling. Double digit SNOW is likely as well especially in the mid-Atlantic region. Significant snowfall is expected in DC. ICE is possible to the southeast coast.
I've included the
@weatherbell
NBM liquid equivalent total as this is the pie from which we slice. How this plays out in precip types is still up for discussion, but this has the potential to disrupt life as we know it for many areas for several days during and after the event.
Posted on 1/20/26 at 9:39 am to Fun Bunch
There's a lot of doomcasting on twitter right now. This one could get wild
Posted on 1/20/26 at 9:42 am to Triple Bogey
When is BR holding bobsledding tryouts on the MRB?
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